IDA remnants-Moderate to isolated Major Impact (esp NJ-LI), general storm total 2-8" rainfall Wednesday-Thursday September 1-2 2021

[Allsnow]

18z euro further north with the metro getting just 1-2 inches 

[weathermedic]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

18z euro further north with the metro getting just 1-2 inches 

Dare I ask what the NAM and NAM 3K are showing?

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We'll get tornadoes instead.

 

[doncat]

Euro 18z

[jets]

Focus on where front is not where models have heaviest precip. Euro looks like a north outlier

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, jets said:

Focus on where front is not where models have heaviest precip. Euro looks like a north outlier

dewpoints here on the CT coast dropped into the upper 50's...so front is clearly south of me....

[hudsonvalley21]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

dewpoints here on the CT coast dropped into the upper 50's...so front is clearly south of me....

72/63 here.

[NJwx85]

28 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

18z euro further north with the metro getting just 1-2 inches 

All these years later and you still don’t know what the NYC metro is.

[bluewave]

Models haven’t been of much use with the placement of the heaviest rain this summer before nowcast time. But the heavy convection signals were very good. So it will be interesting to see if they get the location right this time or we get more shifts right through 12z tomorrow. The ingredients are there for somebody in the wider MA to NE region to get near a localized 10”+ max.

[weathermedic]

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models haven’t been of much use with the placement of the heaviest rain this summer before nowcast time. But the heavy convection signals were very good. So it will be interesting to see if they get the location right this time or we get more shifts right through 12z tomorrow. The ingredients are there for somebody in the wider MA to NE region to get near a localized 10”+ max.

No one is getting less than 2 inches in our area.

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models haven’t been of much use with the placement of the heaviest rain this summer before nowcast time. But the heavy convection signals were very good. So it will be interesting to see if they get the location right this time or we get more shifts right through 12z tomorrow. The ingredients are there for somebody in the wider MA to NE region to get near a localized 10”+ max.

10" in the Poconos yuck

 

[Stormlover74]

Nam came south a bit but also tightened the gradient 

 

[Brian5671]

0z NAM crushes NYC and north

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

 

Getting dicey. Won't take much to bring that risk to our area. 

Additionally 2-3" seems like a lock even with any northern adjustments. We could get those amounts in an hour. 

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

0z NAM crushes NYC and north

The NAM has been all over with the evolution of the front/surface low the last 4 runs which has made it hard to see a trend of any kind other than NYC and just NW is likely best chc for heaviest rains

[lee59]

4 hours ago, uncle W said:

The ole rain gauge from 1990… since I took it out of retirement I got 8” of rain…

I actually have one of those. Tube in the center measures to 1 inch and the large tube measures the overflow. 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I actually have one of those. Tube in the center measures to 1 inch and the large tube measures the overflow. 

Mine was clear.....this one seems a bit clouded over lol

[jets]

38 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM has been all over with the evolution of the front/surface low the last 4 runs which has made it hard to see a trend of any kind other than NYC and just NW is likely best chc for heaviest rains

I think heaviest in reality is a bit more se than Nam 12km shows. Just north and west of low path and front 

[donsutherland1]

The RGEM  brings 5”-9” from PHL to ISP.

[Stormlover74]

Let's hope it's out to lunch

 

[jets]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Let's hope it's out to lunch

 

 it makes more sense than the Nam 

[NJwx85]

18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Let's hope it's out to lunch

 

It’s been the same for 3 days. It’s happening  so might as well embrace it.

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s been the same for 3 days. It’s happening  so might as well embrace it.

 

I still don't buy 6-9 inches other than isolated areas.  I think it'll be mostly 3-5 with isolated 6s and 7s

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I still don't buy 6-9 inches other than isolated areas.  I think it'll be mostly 3-5 with isolated 6s and 7s

I can see the high amounts

This is rain from a past hurricane interacting with a trough.

[greenmtnwx]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

I still don't buy 6-9 inches other than isolated areas.  I think it'll be mostly 3-5 with isolated 6s and 7s

Definitely going to be widespread 6”+ amounts up to 9-10”

[Stormlover74]

Gfs jackpots Poconos to sussex county 

[jm1220]

GFS way north. East of NYC in areas get 1" or less.

[MJO812]

I guess we have to see where the thunderstorms develop. 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS way north. East of NYC in areas get 1" or less.

I'm not sure I have seen many cases of mesos SE of the globals lol...again, the lingering tropical characteristics of the system probably causing havoc with the models somewhat...if the Euro ticks NW again I think we can toss to a degree the RGEM.  The NAM as I said has been struggling the last 3-4 runs creating double barreled centers and other nuances but it overall has had the axis closer to the GFS/Euro than the RGEM