IDA remnants-Moderate to isolated Major Impact (esp NJ-LI), general storm total 2-8" rainfall Wednesday-Thursday September 1-2 2021

[Stormlover74]

Nam gives us 2 to 4" in just 1 6 hour period

 

[CIK62]

New Orleans as a functioning city has been eliminated for at least 30 days.       No power (unless Entergy can  reroute power) for an unknown time.      Also they are suffering low water pressure.

Ironically the revamped levee system held up.

Multiple large vessels got loose and are blocking the Mississippi River traffic too.

Going to affect the economy with more shortages and inflation.         Stocks will RISE more with the additional money printing engendered here. 

The eye has nearly filled in:

     

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam gives us 2 to 4" in just 1 6 hour period

 

 

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

At least 2 of the stadiums have retractable roofs

at this rate all outdoor sports played in this area will need retractable roofs (looking at the Yankees and Mets.)

 

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

New Orleans as a functioning city has been eliminated for at least 30 days.       No power (unless Entergy can  reroute power) for an unknown time.      Also they are suffering low water pressure.

Ironically the revamped levee system held up.

Multiple large vessels got loose and are blocking the Mississippi River traffic too.

Going to affect the economy with more shortages and inflation.         Stocks will RISE more with the additional money printing engendered here. 

The eye has nearly filled in:

     

 

Wasn't a direct hit though.  I wonder whats a worst case scenario for them- a storm passing by just to their east and getting surge from the lake, or having the eye pass right over them or just to their west?  This time it was about 30 miles to their west.

[jm1220]

54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wasn't a direct hit though.  I wonder whats a worst case scenario for them- a storm passing by just to their east and getting surge from the lake, or having the eye pass right over them or just to their west?  This time it was about 30 miles to their west.

Katrina may have been the worst case track. Easterly winds piled water into Lake Pontchartrain and also up the Miss. River, then the northerly winds pushed the lake into the city. This track is bad though too, it's a 1964 Betsy type track. That drives water up the river and from the lakes/swamp south of them, but those likely soak up some of the surge before reaching the city. The danger seems to be more Lake Pontchartrain overflowing right into the city. 

[jm1220]

Nam is probably overdone with the rain but some areas could definitely see 3-5" with this. With the ground being so saturated it will present problems quickly for river basins. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Katrina may have been the worst case track. Easterly winds piled water into Lake Pontchartrain and also up the Miss. River, then the northerly winds pushed the lake into the city. This track is bad though too, it's a 1964 Betsy type track. That drives water up the river and from the lakes/swamp south of them, but those likely soak up some of the surge before reaching the city. The danger seems to be more Lake Pontchartrain overflowing right into the city. 

a good test for their risk reduction system too.  Looks like surrounding areas really got it bad though.  I heard there was a 170 mph gust somewhere?  I remember when it used to be a decade between Cat 4/5 landfalls.  Now this is the second one in consecutive years ugh.

[Stormlover74]

Cmc goes way south. Gives our area around an inch

[Rtd208]

[wdrag]

No basic changes from my perspective using multiple guidance from the 00z/30 model cycle.

Appears to me to be moderate to spotty major impact event due to antecedent ground saturation.  Title will probably upgrade to MODERATE-iso MAJOR tomorrow morning but for now I like the 2-8" swath.  You can see the HPC 4-6" yellow swath attached. FFA for NJ and points southwest.  My guess i s OKX issues later today.  I can see them waiting, to deal with whatever the results of the afternoon convection that will produce spotty 1" amounts in our area today.

I think we'll see a PRE in the upper Ohio Valley today near the Ohio River... (may already be forming), then that redevelops across southern PA Tuesday,  into NJ Wednesday morning, then the TC rains in earnest Wed night-Thursday morning.  For now staying with 2-8". It is my expectation that there will be some large rivers that reach moderate FS, but that is solely dependent on 3"+ averaged over the ENTIRE river basin,  so too early to be sure where, though I focus on NJ, PA.  

Wind: keeping tropical gusts for now...could see iso 50 kt but think it best to focus on rain. IF 50 kt were to occur, that would enhance the potential for widespread power outages--a fickle forecast, dependent mainly on wind gusts exceeding 40 kt. Think it best to keep this part lower visibility for now.

The second graphic added is the 00z/30 6 HR SPC HREF MAX qpf for Tue afternoon, showing a focus near I76...where I think a PRE will reform. I did not examine the multitude of 00z/30 GEN/WAA products. A PRE is not guaranteed, nor a PRE rainfall swath of 3+" not guaranteed to be colocated with the primary 4+ swath later on.  534A/30.

[Rjay]

0z runs

Euro

Ukie 

Gfs

Cmc

[psv88]

Supposed to be renting a house by Lake Harmony in the Poconos this week. Worried about the flooding and being able to drive around/home on Thursday. 
 

would it be unreasonable to cancel? I know the area already flooded last week 

 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Supposed to be renting a house by Lake Harmony in the Poconos this week. Worried about the flooding and being able to drive around/home on Thursday. 
 

would it be unreasonable to cancel? I know the area already flooded last week 

 

cancel for that?  UM no.   Just wait a day if it's too bad to leave on Thursday

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

cancel for that?  UM no.   Just wait a day if it's too bad to leave on Thursday

Have important plans back here on Friday morning 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Have important plans back here on Friday morning 

Does the area flood easily ? 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Supposed to be renting a house by Lake Harmony in the Poconos this week. Worried about the flooding and being able to drive around/home on Thursday. 
 

would it be unreasonable to cancel? I know the area already flooded last week 

 

Hey that's a beautiful area you'll love it.  I've had a house in that region for years.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Does the area flood easily ? 

Not in my experience.  My grass is water logged but that's about it.

 

[psv88]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Does the area flood easily ? 

Looks like a lot of creeks and shit but not sure. Called the home owner and she said we can stay longer if we need 

[wdrag]

EXPERIMENTAL from WPC for Wednesday... Extreme precip monitor... recurrence interval.   Let's see what happens for this D3 issuance at about 09z/30.  Unsure whether this is issued twice daily?

Generates from WPC QPF, therefore, if we miss the qpf, we miss the ARI.  Please read the background for this.

 

 

[Santa Claus]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Supposed to be renting a house by Lake Harmony in the Poconos this week. Worried about the flooding and being able to drive around/home on Thursday. 
 

would it be unreasonable to cancel? I know the area already flooded last week 

 

should've rented a boat

[Brian5671]

12z NAM with a south dip in the best rains--the start of a trend?  (CMC/RGEM have also been south)

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

12z NAM with a south dip in the best rains--the start of a trend?  (CMC/RGEM have also been south)

Doesn’t look south

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Doesn’t look south

compare to 6z:

[qg_omega]

Consensus has been middle of NJ with NYC on north side with best rains.  

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Consensus has been middle of NJ with NYC on north side with best rains.  

Like in winter, 60 hours out consensus can change..alot

[Stormlover74]

12z rgem vs 12z gfs

[RippleEffect]

13 hours ago, MJO812 said:

 

Imagine this around January 10th! Lmao

[SnowGoose69]

06z/12Z models seemed to speed things up again with progression of the system through here after the 00Z cycles slowed stuff up.  Euro continues to be only model with the insane 850 and 925 winds which don't make sense.  Its likely operating with the system still being tropical in nature as it reaches the coast or something because I can't see otherwise why a 1000mb low would have winds like that at 925

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Doesn’t look south

South of 6z