IDA remnants-Moderate to isolated Major Impact (esp NJ-LI), general storm total 2-8" rainfall Wednesday-Thursday September 1-2 2021

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

Have to walk the dogs, and so an update of words ~7-730A.  A general moderate impact, possibly spot major (areas of considerable flooding, mayybe pockets of wind/soft ground related power outages??) .

Walt, anything 1" or more should be considered a major event, it's a lot of rain and the ground just can't hold any more.

 

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we're still getting a ton of rain but the euro is notorious for being too strong and phased with these remnant lows

Looks like 2" is the base minimum for this

 

[SnoSki14]

Gfs trended towards the Euro with a more energetic Ida. 

It also shifted north a bit putting us near the warm sector aka the side with heavier winds and severe weather/tornadoes. 

[SnowGoose69]

19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs trended towards the Euro with a more energetic Ida. 

It also shifted north a bit putting us near the warm sector aka the side with heavier winds and severe weather/tornadoes. 

You probably have to be in the warm sector for anything interesting.  You won't see as much rain but you might see a chance of severe weather.  I do not think winds will be a major issue.  Even on the NW side it'll probably be too stable to mix anything between G30-35 down

[LibertyBell]

44 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You probably have to be in the warm sector for anything interesting.  You won't see as much rain but you might see a chance of severe weather.  I do not think winds will be a major issue.  Even on the NW side it'll probably be too stable to mix anything between G30-35 down

Why is it that these I storms always seem to be so noteworthy.

I named storms are the most retired (11).

 

 

[LibertyBell]

44 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You probably have to be in the warm sector for anything interesting.  You won't see as much rain but you might see a chance of severe weather.  I do not think winds will be a major issue.  Even on the NW side it'll probably be too stable to mix anything between G30-35 down

what if it transitions to ET?

 

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Walt, anything 1" or more should be considered a major event, it's a lot of rain and the ground just can't hold any more.

 

Thanks.  I think of major in terms of Public impact.  WPC Noon update has widespread 2+. This is not Irene Lee combo.  Someone correct me if I’m wrong.  
 

The places that exceed 6. will have big problems starting w basin and small stream. We can’t be wrong about Major.  I think that is coming for a few spots but can’t determine for another day.  That would be my take if I were briefing. 

[CIK62]

NWS Pooh-Poohing any real effects for us from IDA.

No mention of wind potentials, in fact did not mention the rain on Wed. would be from IDA.

At any rate here is the current N.O. radar:

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Thanks.  I think of major in terms of Public impact.  WPC Noon update has widespread 2+. This is not Irene Lee combo.  Someone correct me if I’m wrong.  
 

The places that exceed 6. will have big problems starting w basin and small stream. We can’t be wrong about Major.  I think that is coming for a few spots but can’t determine for another day.  That would be my take if I were briefing. 

Walt, is there an actual thing called a "tropical" tornado?  I hear it mentioned often on the weather channel and I just though it's a term they made up just like "superstorm" when they called Sandy that.

I found this page:

https://www.weather.gov/cae/tropicaltornadoes.html

 

However in the graphs below the word "tropical" is in quotes, making me think that it's just a slang terminology and there is no official definition for "tropical" tornado, just like there isn't for a "superstorm."

 

[wdrag]

I doubt very very much if NWS locally is Ignoring  National centers NHC and WPC. Both have our area nailed fir a sizable event!

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

I doubt very very much if NWS locally is Ignoring  National centers NHC and WPC have our area nailed. 

Yep, isn't this something that is covered on the national level and local NWS picks it up when we are within 48 hours of the event?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

I doubt very very much if NWS locally is Ignoring  National centers NHC and WPC have our area nailed. 

Bulls eye of 3-5" headed right for our region

 

[wdrag]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Walt, is there an actual thing called a "tropical" tornado?  I hear it mentioned often on the weather channel and I just though it's a term they made up just like "superstorm" when they called Sandy that.

I found this page:

https://www.weather.gov/cae/tropicaltornadoes.html

 

However in the graphs below the word "tropical" is in quotes, making me think that it's just a slang terminology and there is no official definition for "tropical" tornado, just like there isn't for a "superstorm."

 

I’m out of touch w anything on NWS terminology changes 2018 onward. Other than EF2 or bigger I’m of the opinion that big wind is big wind. Many of these wind events are highly concentrated meso or miso scale. Bottom line if you’re in the general warning. No surprises. Just be smart safe.  In advance I know most disagree.  IMO Just too darn hard to get much useful and reliable lead time on the Majority of small hurricane related tors m. Knowing the best 2 hour window of opportunity can be useful.

[MJO812]

[hudsonvalley21]

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I’m out of touch w anything on NWS terminology changes 2018 onward. Other than EF2 or bigger I’m of the opinion that big wind is big wind. Many of these wind events are highly concentrated meso or miso scale. Bottom line if you’re in the general warning. No surprises. Just be smart safe.  In advance I know most disagree.  IMO Just too darn hard to get much useful and reliable lead time on the Majority of small hurricane related tors m. Knowing the best 2 hour window of opportunity can be useful.

Hey I agree with you, more terminology merely creates more confusion and it then becomes a distinction without a difference.

 

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Our best hope is for most of this to stay NW of the area

 

[LibertyBell]

55 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

35 mph TD as it passes over us and then strengthens back to a 40 mph TS over the Atlantic?

 

[Rjay]

12z runs

 

Euro

Ukie

Gfs

Cmc

[LoboLeader1]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

12z runs

 

Euro

Ukie

Gfs

Cmc

Plenty of uncertainty as to the exact track. Hopefully the heaviest rains will fall south of NYC.

[wdrag]

My next more thorough eval at 6A Monday.  Noting the 18z GFS op qpf seems to have a PRE trying to form I76 Tuesday.  I'll be keeping an eye on this.  Doesn't take much to triple the yield in this subtle situation that models tend not to forecast very well. 

[wdrag]

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

My next more thorough eval at 6A Monday.  Noting the 18z GFS op qpf seems to have a PRE trying to form I76 Tuesday.  I'll be keeping an eye on this.  Doesn't take much to triple the yield in this subtle situation that models tend not to forecast very well. 

48 hr HRRR example for PA PRE? May be starting there???

[hudsonvalley21]

WPC’s latest QPF map still holding serv.

 

[Santa Claus]

those of you in NNJ will need flotation devices if these maps verify.

[JustinRP37]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

35 mph TD as it passes over us and then strengthens back to a 40 mph TS over the Atlantic?

 

The white circle around the S indicates post-tropical storm not tropical storm. Meaning it won’t be a warm core storm. Still sizable but the terminology can be confusing. 

[crossbowftw3]

29 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

those of you in NNJ will need flotation devices if these maps verify.

Just over the border in NYS and probably will need to do the same at this rate.

[Santa Claus]

20 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Just over the border in NYS and probably will need to do the same at this rate.

nobody really gets out alive here, there looks like a sharp cutoff well north of the area and everyone inside of this 150?+ mile band gets 3+

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

those of you in NNJ will need flotation devices if these maps verify.

And the US Open schedulers will be looking for a way to quit lol...If the Euro idea verifies it'll rain basically all day THU too

[Stormlover74]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

And the US Open schedulers will be looking for a way to quit lol...If the Euro idea verifies it'll rain basically all day THU too

At least 2 of the stadiums have retractable roofs

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said:

Plenty of uncertainty as to the exact track. Hopefully the heaviest rains will fall south of NYC.

Usually with these if you go more S and E you will be more correct.  Thats not to say you cannot see a 3-4 day track of a remnant tropical end up more N and W but its more frequent the end result is on the S/E side of where models are 3-4 days out