September 2021 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict the temperature anomalies (relative to 1991-2020 normal values) for

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(deadline 06z Wed Sep 1 2021)

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0       1.0       1.0       0.5      1.5     1.5        1.0      1.5      1.0 

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0        1.1       1.3       0        0.8     1.0      0.8     1.2     1.7

[bkviking]

DCA +0.6

NYC +0.9

BOS +0.8

ORD +0.3

ATL +0.3

IAH +0.3

DEN +1.2

PHX +0.2

SEA +0.8

[wxallannj]

DCA   0.0

NYC -0.3

BOS -0.4

ORD -1.5

ATL +1.0

IAH +1.5

DEN +2.2

PHX +2.5

SEA +0.4

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

0.4      0.5      0.5       0.8      0.0    -0.4     0.3     -0.3     1.0 

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.0     -0.1      1.3        0.6      0.1     0.6      1.3     -0.9     0.6 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA  +0.5

NYC +0.7

BOS +0.3

ORD +0.3

ATL +1.7

IAH +0.5

DEN +1.0

PHX +0.4

SEA +0.1

[Tom]

DCA  +0.2

NYC +0.5

BOS +0.4

ORD +0.4

ATL +0.9

IAH +0.3

DEN +0.5

PHX +0.9

SEA +0.8

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -1.4

NYC:  -1.3

BOS:  +0.2

ORD:  -1.1

ATL:  -0.6

IAH: -0.8

DEN: -0.2

PHX:  +1.1

SEA:  +2.2

[Roger Smith]

-0.7 _ -0.8 _ -1.0 _ -0.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 _ -0.3

[Rjay]

DCA +1.0

NYC +0.5

BOS +1.0

ORD +0.5

ATL 0.0

IAH +1.0

DEN +1.5

PHX +0.5

SEA +1.0

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for September 2021

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ___ bias

 

so_whats_happening ____+1.0 _+1.1 _+1.3 ___ 0.0 _+0.8 _+1.0 ___ +0.8 _+1.2 _+1.7 ___ +0.41

Scotty Lightning _________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 ___ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___ +0.53 

RJay _____________________+1.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 __ +0.5 __0.0_+1.0 ___ +1.5 _+0.5 _+1.0 ___ +0.20

BKViking ________________+0.6 _+0.9 _+0.8 __+0.3 _+0.3 _+0.3 ___+1.2 _+0.2 _+0.8 ___ +0.02

hudsonvalley21 _________ +0.5 _+0.7 _+0.3 __ +0.3 _+1.7 _+0.5 ___+1.0 _+0.4 _+0.1 ___ +0.03

DonSutherland1 __________+0.4 _+0.5 _+0.5 __+0.8 __0.0 _-0.4 ___+0.3 _-0.3 _+1.0 ___ -0.27

___ Consensus ___________+0.3 _+0.5 _+0.4 __+0.3 _+0.2 _+0.6 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.9

Tom ______________________+0.2 _+0.5 _+0.4 __+0.4 _+0.9 _+0.3__ +0.5 _+0.9 _+0.8 ___ -0.03

___ Normal ________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ -0.58

wxallannj _________________ 0.0 _-0.3 _-0.4 __ -1.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +2.2 _+2.5 _+0.4 ___ +0.02

Roger Smith _____________ -0.7 _-0.8 _-1.0 __ -0.5 _-1.0 _-1.0 ______ 0.0 _+1.0 _-0.3 ___ -1.06

RodneyS _________________-1.0 _-0.1 _+1.3 __ +0.6 _+0.1 _+0.6 ___ +1.3 _-0.9 _+0.6 ___ -0.30

Deformation Zone _______-1.2 _-2.0 _-2.5 __ -1.6 __ 0.0 _+1.0 _____+2.5 _+2.0 _+2.5___ -0.50

wxdude64 _______________-1.4 _-1.3 _+0.2 __ -1.1 _-0.6 _-0.8 _____ -0.2 _+1.1 _+2.2 ___ -0.76

________________________________________________________

Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. 

Bias is your average departure from consensus. This may obscure different tendencies where a forecaster has chosen a warm west, cool east model since there are more locations east than west. 

 

[Roger Smith]

First report on anomalies and projections ...

____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

11th (anom 10d) ___--1.9 _--1.6 _ +2.3 __ +0.2 _--1.5 _ +1.0 __ +4.6 _+0.1 _ +1.3

21st (anom 20d) ___ +1.2 _ +0.9 _+3.3 __+4.1 _--1.6 _--0.4 __ +4.6 _+1.3 _ --0.8

29th (anom 28d) ___ +1.0_ +1.4 _ +4.4 __ +3.6 _--1.3 _--1.2 __ +4.6 _+0.2 _-0.6

 

11th (p anom 20d)_ +2.0_ +2.5 _ +3.0 __ +2.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ +3.0 _+1.0 _ +0.5

11th (p anom 27d)_ +2.0_ +2.5 _ +3.0 __ +2.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 __ +2.0 _+0.5 __ 0.0

21st (p anom 30d) _+1.0_ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ +2.5 _--1.0 _--0.5 __ +2.0 _+1.5 __ 0.0

29th (p anom 30d)_+0.8_ +1.0 _ +3.5 __ +3.0 _--1.5 _--1.2 __ +4.0 __ 0.0 _-0.7

confirmed anoms __+0.8_ +1.1 _ +4.1 __ +3.9 _--1.0 _--1.0 __ +4.0 __ 0.0 _ -0.7

 

(21st) _ Warmth has been more focused on the Midwest than further east, although Boston has remained well above normal. Recent rather cool weather in SEA is giving way to a somewhat warmer end of the month and DEN and PHX look set to finish the month above normal. The next 7-10 days in the east appear rather close to average if perhaps slightly cool at first. 

(29th) Final anomaly projections being updated for provisional scoring. 

(Oct 1st) Confirmed anomalies posted and scoring adjusted if necessary.

 

[Roger Smith]

Final scoring for September 2021

_ scoring is based on final anomalies in previous post.

_ BOS currently scored from max 60 progression, where marked ^ (most scores are boosted). The highest raw scores were 44. 

_ ORD scored from max 60 progression, where marked ^ (all scores are boosted at least slightly). The highest raw score was only 38.  

_ scoring remains in forecast table order until final.

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS

 

RJay _____________________96 _ 88 _ 50^__ 234 __ 50^_ 80 _ 60 __ 190 __ 424 ___50 _ 90 _ 66 __ 206____ 630

DonSutherland1 _________92 _ 88 _ 35^__ 215 ___60^_80 _ 88 __ 228 __ 443 __ 26 _ 94 _ 66 __ 186 ____ 629

BKViking ________________ 96 _ 96 _ 40^__ 232 __ 35^_ 74 _ 74 __ 183 __ 415 __ 44 _ 96 _ 70 __ 210 ____ 625

RodneyS _________________64 _ 76 _ 60^__ 200 __ 55^_ 78 _ 68 __ 201 __ 401 __ 46 _ 82 _ 74 __ 202 ____ 603

hudsonvalley21 __________94 _ 92 _ 25^__ 211 ___ 35^_ 46 _ 70 __ 151 __ 362 __ 40 _ 92 _ 84 __ 216 ____ 578

___ Consensus ___________90 _ 88 _ 33^__ 211 __ 35^_ 76 _ 68 __ 179 __ 390 __ 40 _ 80 _ 68 __ 188 ____ 578

Scotty Lightning _________96 _ 98 _ 50^__ 244 __ 50^_ 50 _ 50 __ 150 __ 394 __ 40 _ 70 _ 66 __ 176____ 570 

so_whats_happening ____ 96 _100_60^__256 __ 25^_ 64 _ 60 __ 149 __ 405 __ 36 _ 76 _ 52 __ 164 ____ 569

Tom ______________________88 _ 88 _ 30^__ 206 __ 40^_ 62 _ 74 __ 176 ___382 __30 _ 82 _ 70 __ 182 ____ 564

___ Normal _______________ 84 _ 78 _ 18 __ 180 __ 18 _ 80 _ 80 __ 178 __ 358 __ 20_100 _ 86 __206 ____ 564

Roger Smith _____________ 70 _ 62 _ 10^__ 142 __ 20^_100 _100__ 220__362 __ 20 _ 80 _ 92 __192 ____ 554

wxallannj _________________84 _ 72 _ 15^__ 171 __ 10^_ 60 _ 50 __ 120 __ 291 __ 64 _ 50 _ 78 __ 192 ____ 483

wxdude64 _______________ 56 _ 52 _ 22 __ 130 __ 15^_ 92 _ 96 __ 203 __ 333 __  16 _ 78 _ 42 __136 ____469

Deformation Zone _______ 60 _ 38 _ 05^__ 103 __  05^_ 80 _ 60__ 145 __ 248 __ 70_ 60 _ 36 __ 166 ____ 414

________________________________________________________

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT 

_ DCA is a shared win for four forecasts, see table for details. 

_ NYC is a win for so_whats_happening with warmest forecast (+1.1 equal to outcome).

_ BOS a win for so_whats_happening and RodneyS (warmest forecasts)

_ ORD is a win for DonSutherland1 (warmest forecast)

_ ATL, IAH, SEA wins for Roger Smith (coldest forecasts).

_ DEN is a win for Deformation Zone (warmest forecast)

_ PHX currently expected to finish close to consensus, will not qualify.

__________________________________________

 

[Roger Smith]

<<<< ============ - - - - Annual Scoring for 2021 (Jan-Sep) - - - - ============ >>>> 

 

High scores for nine locations shown in red, high scores for regions in bold. New feature _ change in rank is shown after forecaster name. No entry there means same position as last month. Consensus moved up two relative to forecasters. Normal remained in its previous position. Other changes shown for forecasters do not include forecasters moving past consensus or normal, or vice versa.  

 

FORECASTER _________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent __c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS

 

DonSutherland1 ______________ 656 _680 _447 _ 1783 __541 _690 _624 _1855__3638 __402 _628 _602 _ 1632___ 5270

BKViking (up 1) _______________ 653 _705 _479 _ 1837 __427 _655 _603 _ 1685__3522 __481 _597 _621 _ 1699___ 5221

RodneyS (up 2) _______________ 614 _652 _460 _ 1726 __456 _674 _550 _ 1680__3406 __494 _634 _630 _1758___ 5164

 

___ Consensus (up 2) ________ 678 _700 _455 _ 1833 __419 _624 _588 _ 1631__3464 __476 _568 _602 _ 1646___ 5110

 

wxallannj (down 2) ___________ 612 _652 _442 _ 1706 __398 _580 _604 _ 1582__3288 __590 _561 _642 _1793___ 5081

Tom (up 1) ____________________ 658 _707 _492 _ 1857__370 _557 _620 _ 1547__3404 __520 _577 _562 _ 1659___ 5063

wxdude64 (down 2) __________ 669 _637 _475 _ 1781 __398 _628 _595 _ 1621__3402 __515 _569 _569 _ 1653___ 5055

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 654 _672 _476 _ 1802 __396 _636 _560 _ 1592__3394__430 _563 _656 _ 1649___ 5043

Scotty Lightning ______________ 660 _662 _429 _ 1751 __356 _564 _538 _ 1458__3209 __496 _542 _626 _ 1664___ 4873

___ Normal ____________________ 652 _598 _344 _ 1594 __286 _640 _630 _ 1556 __3150 __486 _596 _618 _ 1700___ 4850

so_whats_happening _________ 697 _ 663 _366 _ 1726 __425 _662 _503 _ 1590 __3316 __398 _558 _551 _ 1507___ 4823

RJay __________________________ 596 _620 _484 _ 1700 __440 _586 _538 _ 1564 __3264 __446 _477 _496 _ 1419___ 4683

Roger Smith ___________________584 _502 _235 _ 1321 __ 417 _538 _642 _ 1597 __2918 __416 _525 _604 _ 1545___ 4463

Deformation Zone _ (3/9) ______198 _ 150 __75 __ 423 __ 89 __206 __202 __497___ 920 __192 _ 180 _ 174 __546____1466

 

Best scores for the locations and regions 

 

FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ east __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ cent __ c/e ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ west ___ Totals

 

DonSutherland1 ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 2 ______3 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 4 ____ 4 _____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Jan 

BKViking _____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Apr

 

RodneyS _____________________ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 _____ 2 __ Feb, Jul

___ Consensus _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __ 

wxallannj _____________________ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 3 _____ 0 __

Tom __________________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May

wxdude64 ____________________ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 2 _____ 1 __ Mar (t)

hudsonvalley21 _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 1 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 3 _____ 1 _____ 0 __ 

Scotty Lightning ______________ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 0 _____ 0 __

___ Normal ____________________ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 1 _____ 1 __ May, Jul 

so_whats_happening _________ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __ Mar (t) 

RJay __________________________ 1 ____ 1 _____ 4 _____ 1 ______ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 _____ 1 __  Sep

Roger Smith __________________ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 ______ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 1 _____ 2  __Jun, Aug 

Deformation Zone ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 ______0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____0 _____ 0  

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

EXTREME FORECAST STANDINGS

High score must go to either the extreme warm or cold forecast, or second most extreme, for a station to qualify.

So far this year, 61 locations out of 81 have qualified, 4 in Jan, 5 in Feb, 7 in March, 6 in April, 8 in May, June and July, 7 in August, and 8 in September.

Of those, 32 were awarded to warmest forecasts, 29 to coldest.

A loss in the standings represents a case where second most extreme forecast had the high score and the win for that month.

Normal can only win along with a forecaster. There have been eight shared wins (one by four and one by three) accounting for the excess of total wins (excl Normal). 

 

FORECASTER _________ Jan __ Feb __ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep ___ TOTAL to date

Roger Smith ___________ 2-1 __ 2-0 __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- _ 3-1 _ 3-0 __ 14-2

RodneyS ______________ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ 2-1 __ 1-0 __ 6-0 _ --- _ 1-0 __ 10-1

wxallannj ______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 3-0 __ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _ --- ___ 9-0

___ Normal _____________--- __ --- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ --- __ 5-0 _ 1-0 _ --- ___ 9-0

DonSutherland1 _______ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ --- _ --- _ 1-0 ___ 9-1

RJay ___________________ --- __ --- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ --- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 ___ 8-0

so_whats_happening ___--- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- _ 3-0 __ 7-0

wxdude64 _____________ --- __ 1-0 __ 2-0 __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ --- ___ 4-0

Deformation Zone _____ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 ___ 3-0

BKViking _______________ ---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 0-1 _ --- _ 1-0 ___ 3-1

Scotty Lightning _______ ---- __ --- __ ---- __ --- __ --- __ 1-1 __ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 ___ 3-1

Tom ____________________---- __ --- __ --- __ --- __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- _ --- _ --- ___ 2-0

__________________________________