Major Hurricane Ida

[Amped]

List of storms that came close to or over New Orleans since 2005

Cindy 2005     CAT1

Katrina 2005   CAT3

Gustav 2008   CAT2 

Isaac 2012     CAT1

Nate 2017     CAT1

Zeta 2020    CAT3

 

The forecast track looks almost identical to Gustav 2008.  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Biggest limiting factor for a high end cane right now is mainly the time over the gulf. Most models are only showing about a 36 hour window now between exiting Cuba and landfall in Louisiana. The more eastern solution has also led to a faster solution.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

All the reduced time frame does is limit chances to complete an ERC. This is why the majority of the most intense US landfalls are not long tracking CV storms....wild card being the degree of interaction with higher terrain over Cuba.

[hlcater]

56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All the reduced time frame does is limit chances to complete an ERC. This is why the majority of the most intense US landfalls are not long tracking CV storms....wild card being the degree of interaction with higher terrain over Cuba.

The area of Cuba that Ida will be tracking over is relatively flat forest land. Not horribly unlike the Yucatán.

[Floydbuster]

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 80.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[csnavywx]

MWCR 270900Z 28008KT 250V130 9000 -SHRA BKN014 SCT028 26/25 Q1003
MWCR 270800Z 32008KT 290V350 9999 -SHRA BKN010 26/25 Q1003
MWCR 270700Z 35010KT 330V040 9999 BKN018 26/25 Q1004
MWCR 270600Z 06010KT 9999 FEW016 BKN030 27/24 Q1005
MWCR 270500Z 09017KT 9999 FEW016 BKN030 27/24 Q1007 

 

Looks like the center is passing north of Grand Cayman. Radar confirms this.

[NorthHillsWx]

Now explicitly forecast to become a major before landfall:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 20.0N  81.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 21.5N  82.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH
 24H  28/0600Z 23.4N  84.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 25.3N  86.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 27.1N  88.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  29/1800Z 28.7N  90.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  30/0600Z 30.1N  91.1W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 96H  31/0600Z 33.0N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  01/0600Z 35.0N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

 

[csnavywx]

5 am advisory now forecasting borderline cat 3 on landfall but notes the following wrt intensity: 

It should be noted that this intensity is lower than that forecast 
by the HMON model, the HCCA corrected consensus model, and the 
Florida State Superensemble. 

[csnavywx]

[Seminole]

6Z GFS: Borderline CAT4 

[cptcatz]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

All the reduced time frame does is limit chances to complete an ERC. This is why the majority of the most intense US landfalls are not long tracking CV storms....wild card being the degree of interaction with higher terrain over Cuba.

The reduced time frame will also limit storm surge. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Rapid intensification is still very difficult to forecast. So something much higher then a cat 3 is still very much on the table. The NHC is playing the middle road between a Cat 1/2 if rapid intensification doesn’t occur and 4/5 if it goes full tilt. 

[Bostonseminole]

pressure down to 997 on latest recon

 

[schoeppeya]

7 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

pressure down to 997 on latest recon

 

Well that's significant...

[wncsnow]

Already 60 mph and 996. Not good. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Looks like a new ball of convection is firing under the low level center now that we have visible back. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, hlcater said:

The area of Cuba that Ida will be tracking over is relatively flat forest land. Not horribly unlike the Yucatán.

I think that is the key to the intensity forecast...JMHO, but I feel the only way that time is much of an impediment is if the core is severely disrupted by higher terrain over Cuba, which as of now is unlikely.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

The reduced time frame will also limit storm surge. 

True....somewhat. That scenario is not ideal for realizing max surge potential.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Rapid intensification is still very difficult to forecast. So something much higher then a cat 3 is still very much on the table. The NHC is playing the middle road between a Cat 1/2 if rapid intensification doesn’t occur and 4/5 if it goes full tilt. 

Exactly right. I called for it yesterday, but someone like me can do that because no once cares what I do and the lives of thousands don't depend on it. I totally get why the NHC plays it the way that they do.

[SnowenOutThere]

Recon just found some 64kt + wind according to tropical tidbits.

[Windspeed]

Pretty impressive organization since last night. Deep convection over the LLC. Appears to be stacked. Core appears to be developing. Wonder how much intensification Ida can undergo prior to Isle of Youth and Western Cuba here? Good odds of being a hurricane by first landfall. Also looks like the GFS operational runs the past few days were not overdoing intensification trends prior to Cuba.

[NorthHillsWx]

This thing may be going through RI before Cuba… I’m siding with the higher intensity guidance on this storm given the structure at present. This is ahead of modeling 

[Prospero]

7 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Pretty impressive organization since last night. Deep convection over the LLC. Appears to be stacked.

Wow! First time this year for a tropical storm?

[nycwinter]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

This thing may be going through RI before Cuba… I’m siding with the higher intensity guidance on this storm given the structure at present. This is ahead of modeling 

usually the warmest and deepest water in our area of the world is south of cuba..

[SnowenOutThere]

Lightning now going off in the deep convection under the core which is well known sign of rapid intensification.

[NorthHillsWx]

11 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

usually the warmest and deepest water in our area of the world is south of cuba..

Yes but that doesn’t always mean a vertically aligned (stacked) circulation and established core. It’s going over a “easy” spot of Cuba for storms to maintain intensity without much disruption and will not need to reorganize or form a core once in the Gulf in a highly divergent and light shear environment. Also, it’s track literally follows the loop current. This is going to be a monster hurricane, I am incredibly confident. As someone stated earlier, it’s rare on this forum or in any tropical weather discussion to have to look for reasons the storm will not strengthen rapidly. Models have been locked in unanimously for days and what we’re seeing this morning was the one thing I believed could slow it down: lack of an inner core before it could fully take advantage of its environment. Also- the outflow from the pacific system which was a possible detriment to intensification has been nullified by the more northern and eastern track. If this was going into Texas it would likely hand encountered some shear from that, or at least some outflow restriction, but it’s a non factor on the current track. I usually refrain from hyperbole on this site, but this has the hallmarks of another historic Gulf hurricane in the making.

[Eskimo Joe]

https://twitter.com/COweatherman/status/1431246028842291200?s=20

[Texas Weather Center]

https://www.weathercentertx.com/us-hurricane-center/hurricane-ida-news/

TROPICAL STORM  IDA DATA

[TriPol]

I wonder how much impact Cuba will have on Ida?

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

https://twitter.com/COweatherman/status/1431246028842291200?s=20

Funny, Michael was one of the big five (along with Katrina, Andrew, Camille and Labor day '35) that I referenced in my forecast for cat 4-5 landfall yesteday.