Major Hurricane Ida

[canderson]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

I really wish SE LA maps would agree on what's land and what's water.   Maybe Just declare the whole thing swamp? 

Must have been almost  impossible to navigate even with GPS.

It changes annually sooooo good luck.

[Prospero]

 

[NaoPos]

Jocco guy still outside the innermost core. It’s close by, but probably 5-10 miles south. Doubt he’s seeing anything over 100mph at this point. (Maybe close). But not 150… you’d have that whiteout - misty look to the wind blowing if he did. 

[Prospero]

 

[Santa Clause]

I’d say 90 to 100 from what I’ve seen.

[WhiteoutWX]

This thing clearly has not made a turn north yet. Good news for New Orleans.

[KPITSnow]

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

This Jokko guy has not seen much of anything yet.  Soon it will go way downhill fast.  It will give us a good indication of what is in store a bit further NNW 

He's going to tell us that there are 300MPH gusts at this rate.

[mob1]

Golden Meadow is about to take it on the chin, Mark Sudduth set up a camera there as well. 

[Santa Clause]

Just now, WhiteoutWX said:

This thing clearly has not made a turn north yet. Good news for New Orleans.

Terrific news!!! Surge should be minimized as it’s still pushing west.

[Prospero]

 

[Santa Clause]

Just now, Prospero said:

 

Lol…very unlikely.

[jojo762]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

Golden Meadow is about to take it on the chin, Mark Sudduth set up a camera there as well. 

This is where the gate (on Hwy 1) is located for the levee that protects most of the Hwy 1 corridor. Moment of reckoning.  

[Heisy]

3 minutes ago, NaoPos said:

Jocco guy still outside the innermost core. It’s close by, but probably 5-10 miles south. Doubt he’s seeing anything over 100mph at this point. (Maybe close). But not 150… you’d have that whiteout - misty look to the wind blowing if he did. 

I might be wrong but looking at the track of the core it seems like he’ll miss the inner eye wall… Ida still hasn’t turned N yet. 

[Santa Clause]

1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I might be wrong but looking at the track of the core it seems like he’ll miss the inner eye wall… Ida still hasn’t turned N yet. 

It’s jaunting west, Houma in much more danger.

[WE GOT HIM]

1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I might be wrong, but looking at the track of the core it seems like he’ll miss the inner eye wall… Ida still hasn’t turned N yet. 

It has really slowed the last 30 min on radar. Just crawling now.

[marsman]

I was watching the HTV stream at https://www.htv10.tv/livestream.

They might have gone down about 5 minutes ago... been replaying commercials since then.

[wxeyeNH]

12Z Euro just coming out.  It is a bit west of 06Z

[turtlehurricane]

One very notable thing is Ida is still at maximum intensity, with zero signs of weakening, it might even be strengthening still! Check out rapid scan IR https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-14-96-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[jpatrick]

 

[Amped]

3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol…very unlikely.

By storm chasers he means Jeff Piotrowski

[csnavywx]

Yeah, I was premature on the bank call. Either wobbling or getting some frictional torqueing as it interacts with the coastal interface -- but whatever it is, we'll take it.  

[mob1]

Holding it's own 

[Stormsfury]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

I don't know who he is but certainly no Met.  Just said 177mph gusts.  I'm turning the volume off but he is in the best position if you want to experience Cat 2 or Cat 3 winds which I assume are coming to his location

Coming soon . He's in the moat right now in between the 2 eyewalls.

[Moderately Unstable]

4 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

One very notable thing is Ida is still at maximum intensity, with zero signs of weakening, it might even be strengthening still! Check out rapid scan IR https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-14-96-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Well, it isn't fully over land yet. It brushed the coastline and is now back over water--albeit shallow. Separately, research has indicated that the low-level mesocale environment near the coast in situations like this can be extremely moist and end up largely mirroring the oceanic environment. Another thing to consider is that the part of the circulation that remains over water (including the replacement eyewall), is still able to tap into the oceanic energy. Once the eye firmly crosses land and begins trekking inland, weakening will begin in earnest. 

[WE GOT HIM]

The fact that it's crawling...the easterly flow must just be piling water into the lakes by Nola

[MattPetrulli]

 

[btownheel]

Finders keepers?

My first thought. How long until the highest risk tolerance salvage guys launch to try and get salvage rights on a 500MM+ platform?


.

[klw]

2 minutes ago, user13 said:

The fact that it's crawling...the easterly flow must just be piling water into the lakes by Nola

Up 7.5 feet at Shell Beach

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8761305

[Moderately Unstable]

6 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

This guy has to be measuring in km/h... 177km/h (the max he's said he's had comes out to a bit over 100mph) which feels reasonable.

I would frankly be surprised if he's even hit 100. Lots of stuff starts flying once you hit triple digit winds. It's very much "obvious". One easy way to tell--the deciduous trees he's been filming are not toppling over, or even swaying wildly. Those tree types don't handle wind well--palm trees evolved the way they did specifically to handle wind. He's barely seen hurricane strength yet. He will, and he will quickly learn what real strong winds actually look like. His poor estimates are concerning because as a chaser, you need to know what different strength stuff looks like. Also, he should be monitoring the nearby observation sites, have reliable in-situ equipment, and be monitoring radar. If you don't--and I say this having chased before-- you can put yourself into harms way and this isn't a situation where someone can rescue him if he gets into trouble.

[jojo762]

1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said:

I would frankly be surprised if he's even hit 100. Lots of stuff starts flying once you hit triple digit winds. It's very much "obvious". One easy way to tell--the deciduous trees he's been filming are not toppling over, or even swaying wildly. Those tree types don't handle wind well--palm trees evolved the way they did specifically to handle wind. He's barely seen hurricane strength yet. He will, and he will quickly learn what real strong winds actually look like. 

Honestly I probably should not have tried to even rationalize what he's been saying as you are correct that he almost definitely has not even hit triple digits yet -- as evidenced by that ASOS ob station.