HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, jrips27 said: This is the same person who also just posted that the western eyewall was weakening not realizing it was just radarscope having an issue 2 2 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: This is the same person who also just posted that the western eyewall was weakening not realizing it was just radarscope having an issue How do you know there is an issue with RadarScope? Regardless, western eyewall on every radar site I can find does show some degradation compared to an hour ago. Jack is a pretty smart dude as well. Clearly this really only matters for the weather weenies out there and is still a horrible and life-threatening situation for all of SE Louisiana. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Just now, jrips27 said: How do you know there is an issue with RadarScope? Regardless, western eyewall on every radar site I can find does show some degradation compared to an hour ago. Jack is a pretty smart dude as well. Clearly this really only matters for the weather weenies out there and is still a horrible and life-threatening situation for all of SE Louisiana. Yeah I agree, there has been an obvious detrition of the west eyewall. Doesn't matter much at this point though, catastrophic landfall is pretty much set in stone. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 New burst of lightning in the SE eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Mercifully it looks like Ida has leveled off. Unfortunately, it happened too late to keep this from being a catastrophic event where the storm comes ashore. Good news- the westward ticks this morning will keep the most dangerous impacts west of the city proper. I still expect gusts over 100 across the city, but the destructive core looks to just miss at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: This is the same person who also just posted that the western eyewall was weakening not realizing it was just radarscope having an issue Que in the parade of weenies that try arguing that every asymmetric eyewall is due to radar issues. Do we have to go through this every time? Yes, even intense TCs will have eyewall asymmetry. Pretty dead giveaway that its not a radar issues when it shows up from every radar site, and the weakness is on the upshear side of the storm. It does look like the weakness has become more pronounced in the last hour. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Obviously noted many times now of the frequent lightning associated with the intense SE-NE semicircle of eyewall. But the other interesting feature is the tropopause wave NW of the eye leading ahead down path. This tropospheric boundary layer is where air rapid mass evacuation off of intense convection is colliding with rapid southerly upper level ~200 hPa jet / air flow. This is easily seen in this colorized imagery post by Stu Ostro. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Some on twitter were trying to claim an EWRC has begun but I am not sure there is evidence for that in the recon data as of now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Mercifully it looks like Ida has leveled off. Unfortunately, it happened too late to keep this from being a catastrophic event where the storm comes ashore. Good news- the westward ticks this morning will keep the most dangerous impacts west of the city proper. I still expect gusts over 100 across the city, but the destructive core looks to just miss at this point Is it still possible the recurve happens earlier than thought? that grand isle webcam is starting to look bad! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 9:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 29Location: 28.7°N 89.8°WMoving: NW at 14 mphMin pressure: 930 mbMax sustained: 150 mph Those are as per the NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Some on twitter were trying to claim an EWRC has begun but I am not sure there is evidence for that in the recon data as of now. Agree recon data doesn’t really show it. It does look like a moat is getting more pronounced around the primary eyewall on radar. Maybe a secondary one trying to form? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, jrips27 said: Agree recon data doesn’t really show it. It does look like a moat is getting more pronounced around the primary eyewall on radar. Maybe a secondary one trying to form? Even if that does start now that isn't good news for NOLA because of windfield expansion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Frictional effects could cause those Cat 5 like winds to mix down. Especially at 100m or 328 feet above the surface mix down slightly and come in contact with higher structures would be catastrophic. Seen in an earlier post of 162kt winds possible at that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 One last ride coming up 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 140 knots suspect SFMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Radar presentation of the western eye wall appears to be improving once more. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Inner eyewall is recovering a bit, even as the moat is still very pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, StormChazer said: Radar presentation of the western eye wall appears to be improving once more. Just now, mob1 said: Inner eyewall is recovering a bit, even as the moat is still very pronounced. Looks like the magic of increasing frictional convergence imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 933 mb now per the latest dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Waveland flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonumentalNole Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 26 minutes ago, eyewall said: Even if that does start now that isn't good news for NOLA because of windfield expansion. Irma’s wind field expanded the same way when it went over the everglades. Is this due to initial land interactions being massive wetlands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Surge and strong wind moving into Grand Isle: https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, David Reimer said: Surge and strong wind moving into Grand Isle: https://www.severestudios.com/storm-chasers/john.humphress2.html I've been watching that water keeps getting higher and higher those houses won't last long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Port Fourchon, featuring a sizable petroleum complex -- nearly 2.5 miles in length from north to south -- is likely to take a direct hit... Leeville on Louisiana hwy 1 appears it could cease to exist... And to be entirely honest the southernmost portion of the levee on LA hwy 3235 (immediately south of Golden Meadow, LA) looks wholly insufficient to handle the forecasted level of surge. (recommend checking it out on google maps street view -- perhaps you'll have a different take.) If the levee protecting the hwy 3235 corridor is overtopped, or fails altogether, we are really talking about a whole new ballgame in terms of devastation with a large amount of homes and businesses all the way to US90 -- and beyond. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: I've been watching that water keeps getting higher and higher those houses won't last long I'm impressed the camera is still rolling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 This station went through the eye: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Looks to me, the eye will head up hwy 1 and scrap the west side of lake pontchartrain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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