Windspeed Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Beam height is ~30k ft at this distance from KLIX tower. That's already an impressive looking closed eyewall with notable strong cells imbedded within the eye band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Didn't get data all the way through the eyewall/into the eye. But 116kt FL wind.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Looks like 116 knot FL winds .. not sure if fully sampled. It’s close in Tidbits site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 116 kts FL still outside the main NE Eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STxVortex Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 14 minutes ago, jojo762 said: AF302 leaving San Antonio now... So pretty much constant recon all night. It flew pretty close over me a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, STxVortex said: It flew pretty close over me a few minutes ago. That’s AF303 you’re seeing AF302 is still enroute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Ida has upgraded to the tire look now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 wow. 133kt FL, 110kt SFMR... 943.6mb extrap. EDIT: I'll also add that there were higher SFMR readings, but they were flagged. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 NOAA's P3 will be up later this morning. They left early last night so they could get an earlier start today to be present during the storm's landfall. Pretty good flexibility of crews and the set schedules over the last day. Not often you see two air force aircraft in one system simultaneously (NOAA's P3 and the USAF plane being there together is regular) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: wow. 133kt FL, 110kt SFMR... 943.6mb extrap. wow… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Just now, jojo762 said: wow. 133kt FL, 110kt SFMR... 943.6mb extrap. Holy crap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 12 mb drop between passes?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, jojo762 said: wow. 133kt FL, 110kt SFMR... 943.6mb extrap. Is that like 7-10 mb deeper in an hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Whoa, looks like another 10 mb drop over the last 90 minutes... bombing. Cripes... I need to get sleep, but how can I possibly fall asleep now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Holy cow. Stewart could probably pull the Cat 4 trigger if he wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 153mph FL winds + ~127mph SFMR... Yeah i'd go ahead and say this'll be upgraded... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Strong and steady rate intensification all evening and some time just before midnight CDT that must have ramped up into a rapid deepening rate of intensification. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Just now, Windspeed said: Strong and steady rate intensification all evening and some time just before midnight that must have ramped up into a rapid deepening rate of intensification. Someone asked yesterday why these storms as of late (Michael, Laura, now Ida) seem to deepen towards landfall whereas so many in the past weakened. The answer seems to be storms that wait until the last day to get their act together. Had Ida strengthened into a Cat 4 by Cuba, no way would it have maintained it for a straight 48 hrs without inner core changes and fluctuations. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STxVortex Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, NaoPos said: That’s AF303 you’re seeing AF302 is still enroute I STF hope that it wasn't AF303, which is in Ida's eye attm. KSKF, Kelly Field, AF302's takeoff point, is about 45 miles NW of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Floydbuster said: Someone asked yesterday why these storms as of late (Michael, Laura, now Ida) seem to deepen towards landfall whereas so many in the past weakened. The answer seems to be storms that wait until the last day to get their act together. Had Ida strengthened into a Cat 4 by Cuba, no way would it have maintained it for a straight 48 hrs without inner core changes and fluctuations. The struggles that it had getting its act together earlier today may also have increased landfall intensity by delaying an ERC. We saw this with Michael where there were some signs of a secondary eyewall just beginning to form at landfall after the storm had slowly and unimpressively strengthened before bombing in the last 18 hours. Of course, this is just speculation. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 105 knt SFMR in NW eyewall too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Just now, MattPetrulli said: 105 knt SFMR in NW eyewall too. Those hurricane winds are expanding too, not good for New Orleans or for storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Looing good. Kinda like a dinosaur 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 HWRF, HMON and GFS hurricane models all show pressure drops right up until landfall. Given how it looks now, unless the pace of intensification levels off, this will be right on the edge of CAT 5 strength at landfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 It is absolutely wild being able to see convective blow ups on IR and a corresponding increase in reflectivity on KLIX. Hadn't really noticed that myself before with previous systems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: 105 knt SFMR in NW eyewall too. Big increase there from first pass, the windfield is fairly large now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Huge uptick in eyewall lightning now. Ida is bombing. The scenario we all feared. My earlier call of this not hitting 130 was very wrong. Just took a long time for Ida to organize 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Looks like dropsonde was only 950mb with 7knots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Dropsonde says 950 mb, not as low as the extrap suggested. It's rapid strengthening, just not Holy Cow! strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Dropsonde measured 950mb with a 7kt wind. Not quite what we saw from the extrapolated pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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