Major Hurricane Ida

[tim123]

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[jojo762]

Per latest recon data hurricane-force wind radii has expanded greatly in the northwest quadrant... Not great.

[Castaway]

It’s been getting that other look now very recently. 
 

Looking more balanced wrapping around Into a more circular disk. It’s intensifying as we speak. 
 

if this took a step west yesterday right before Cuba between San Juan y Martinez and Sandino… we’d have a classic buzzsaw by now.

 

 

edit: this is why I was focused a lot yesterday right before it was hitting western Cuba. If it jogged west just a bit before hitting land. The little farther westerly track would of had this set in buzzsaw prime mode by now.
 

Low elevation. Quicker exit. More time.
 

it’s been intensifying as we speak. Those light bumps yesterday chugged it a bit. Even if by mere hours
 

 

 

 

[tim123]

Dorvak pressure estimate 947.

[jojo762]

954mb extrap... 110kt FL winds in the SE quad...

[Moderately Unstable]

11 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

With the high octane fuel of the Loop Current, I'm surprised we aren't seeing a big uptick of eyewall lightning with pressures quickly falling and convection increasing. 

Lightning can indicate RI, it is not necessary though conceptually. Also, just to play devils advocate (looking at you Iota and Eta), the plane isn't actually in the eyewall yet (edit: now it is). The forum is convinced due to the sat presentation that it is bombing out--and, yes, anyone looking at that imagery will come to that conclusion. But, the reason we fly into storms is because sometimes the satellite is wrong in either direction--the storm might NOT be bombing as quickly as it looks, or, a seemingly poorly organized storm may in fact have a solid circular closed eye that's just not well discerned on sat imagery. Point is: let's wait for lé plane. That being said if it doesn't find a substantial uptick that accounts both for the current period of intensification and the lack of wind-response to the pressure drops earlier in the day, I would be quite surprised. I was a little surprised that they didn't upgrade to 115 at 10PM frankly but I think the idea was to wait for recon which does seem prudent given earlier sat presentations didn't end up matching the winds that were found. 

 

 

It appears that, yeah, it caught up. 

[Tezeta]

Just now, jojo762 said:

954mb extrap... 110kt FL winds in the SW quad...

Shouldn’t be hard for them to dig out a 100kt sfmr on the next pass 

[Chinook]

we've got wind gusts to 72mph measured in the Gulf of Mexico (10 meter winds or 30 meter winds?)

[STxVortex]

5 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

It's actually the same aircraft, 303. Let's hope they fixed the issue--it helps that the base is not a long flight from the storm. 

Kelly Field is about 700+ miles away from Ida, long enough, 2hrs+.

They're at 700mb fl, big pressure drop and wind increases, heading 135deg ~40nm out of eye.

[Tezeta]

Just now, Chinook said:

we've got wind gusts to 72mph measured in the Gulf of Mexico (10 meter winds or 30 meter winds?)

Elev 427…oil platform. 

[jojo762]

94kt max SFMR in the SE eyewall, with 110kt max FL wind... I'd feel fine upgrading to 100kt/115mph now. But may as well wait until we see what the NE/E quad bring.

[Hoosier]

Just a reminder...

We are in Storm Mode.  A fairly large number of posts have been removed from this thread today.  As this thread will be getting even busier in the next day or so, please try to stay on topic and refrain from empty/bantery type posts that don't add value.  If you keep having your posts removed, you may find yourself on the outside looking in.

[Gravity Wave]

Notable East shift on 00z HWRF vs 18Z. 

[jojo762]

955mb center drop. Impressive strengthening since last recon.

[buckeyefan1]

2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Notable East shift on 00z HWRF vs 18Z. 

[Amped]

955mb on the drop.  Only lose another 53 to catch Katrina and 55 to catch Camille.

[hawkeye_wx]

3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

955mb center drop. Impressive strengthening since last recon.

That is an 11 mb drop over the last four hours.

[jojo762]

The breadth of the hurricane-force FL winds in the southeast quadrant is nuts.

[jojo762]

Trochoidal wobbles are going bananas right now with Ida on IR imagery.. Not something we see frequently.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[Henry's Weather]

Definitely had a bump west

[Amped]

8 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Trochoidal wobbles are going bananas right now with Ida on IR imagery.. Not something we see frequently.

It's not wobbling much on radar.

[Windspeed]

Just want to chime in to remind that the TCHP maps are derived from depth of 26° isotherm. That particular gulf loop eddy that stands out has a very deep 29-30°C circulation. However, the surface layer NW of Ida is still 30°C over the shallow shelf right up to the coastline. Ida is not moving slow enough that it would be capped from further significant intensification after it moved beyond the deep eddy as it is not forecast to stall or move slowly. Oceanic heat content remains high in the shallow shelf for Ida's rate of motion and has a high MPI.

[MattPetrulli]

2 AM is 115 MPH, 955 MB.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just want to chime in to remind that the TCHP maps are derived from depth of 26° isotherm. That particular gulf loop eddy that stands out has a very deep 29-30°C circulation. However, the surface layer NW of Ida is still 30°C over the shallow shelf right up to the coastline. Ida is not moving slow enough that it would be capped from further significant intensification after it moved beyond the deep eddy as it is not forecast to stall or move slowly. Oceanic heat content remains high in the shallow shelf for Ida's rate of motion and has a high MPI.

Yes.

[raindancewx]

There aren't many hurricanes at this time of year, in this position in the Gulf of Mexico that see rapid intensification, on the order of say, Cat 1/2 to 4/5 in a day or less. A lot of the famous recent storms actually weaken somewhat as they approach, will be curious to see which genre this is. Katrina would have been insane if it had been strengthening up until landfall.

I've seen mentions of Katrina and Camille, but Gustav (2008) has been fairly similar too, by timing, magnitude and track.

Gustav: 26.9N / 87.7W, 953 mb, 110 mph sustained winds (8/29 UTC)

Ida: 27.2N / 88W, moving NW 16 mph, 964 mb, 105 mph sustained winds (9/1 by UTC)

[jojo762]

AF302 leaving San Antonio now... So pretty much constant recon all night.

[Normandy]

Considering how this thing looks on radar and satellite I think they find big winds in the NE quad

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/26/2021 at 4:11 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Final Call unchanged from First Call on Thursday PM.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/extreme-hurricane-ida-rapidly.html

[jojo762]

Recon is really about to take it on the chin when they enter the eyewall. Brand new VHT just wrapped around that side, evident both on IR and KLIX radar.