Major Hurricane Ida

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

 T-numbers shooting up: 5.6 current, 6.1 raw; Satcon showing major (100) with hourly up to 105kt.

Posted it above. Radii expanded as well. NO is going to be very close to NE eyewall 

[jojo762]

Just now, Gulfcoaster11 said:

~70 minutes per frame


.

DMAX will do that. Fudging insane progression last 3 hours on IR imagery. 

Recon will almost certainly find cat 3 winds somewhere in the eyewall... Possibly cat 4, which would be some remarkably *rapid* intensification.

[jcwxguy]

9 minutes ago, STxVortex said:

Ida is lighting off the afterburners.

Dr. Cowan's aircraft reconn page has been stuck at 0317utc for 1/2h+. But from the last fix AF303 Mission #12 should only be ~20 minutes out from Ida's core.

its actually updating now. 

[WEATHER53]

Happening as we have watched over last 3-4 hours 

[Gulfcoaster11]

~170 minutes per frame


.

[STxVortex]

Levi's reconn page just got unstuck, 0347utc. AF 303 just entering outer edge of Ida. 

Potential problem is the MSLP reading /sensor stopped shortly after takeoff [or was turned off?].

[Floydbuster]

 

[zinski1990]

Whats with these storms past few years just suddenly strengthening right before landfall

[jcwxguy]

still photo, looks amazing 

[BuffaloWeather]

Looks incredible last few frames.

[kat5hurricane]

There's no doubt in my mind that this is rapidly intensifying now. The improvements over the last few hours are remarkable.

[Ginx snewx]

GFS sounding for New Orleans proper. 

[Crazy4Wx]

Recon just turned toward Ida…I am thinking they find a monster.

[STxVortex]

2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

still photo, looks amazing 

Grand Isle bullseye methinks.

0407utc  AF303 descended to 3200m and turned the pressure sensors on.  Picking up edge conditions, ~1.2deg long/70nm away from Ida's core.

[Amped]

I'm guessing it's between 945mb-950mb. Probably 105-115kt.  I'm more willing to be wrong than most though.

[tim123]

Grand island is a good guess. Will be important to new orleans if its moving wnw or nnw.

[Moderately Unstable]

4 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Whats with these storms past few years just suddenly strengthening right before landfall

A lot of factors. Various teleconnections feed into the Atlantic basin, and thus their phase and orientation can affect the synoptic environment. Hurricanes are heat and momentum transporters. There is more of both at the equator, and less at the poles. Hurricanes do well as I'm sure you know in barotropic environments. Due to (possibly/probably/degrees-of-relativity), climate change, fundamentally two things are happening:

 

1) There is more heat in the ocean, and that heat penetrates to a greater depth, on average.

 

2) The temperature gradient between the equator and poles is weakening.

 

Point 2 has a BUNCH of MAJOR consequences, but, one simple one is, baroclinicity (aka zones of frontal development and the opposite of a barotropic environment), decreases. In simple terms: the temperature difference between the poles, and equator, is decreasing. This reduces frontal strength and makes the environment more homogenous--barotropic--and thus, conducive to hurricane development. 

 

It goes without saying that there's more to the story than that, but just taking a big step back, you can certainly note a pattern of destructive, high intensity, rapidly strengthening, water-laden hurricanes hitting the gulf....and everywhere else... over the past few decades. That's not in itself atypical in a vacuum, rather, the consistently increased number of strong storms is the red flag...e.g., the frequency. Another thing that happens with reduced latitudinal temperature gradients is that the steering winds are more prone to break down. Wind--> balance of PGF & Coriolis (assuming you also know this). Less temperature contrast--> less pressure contrast--> less PGF--> less wind--> storms tend to slow down and can "linger" over cities which causes the Harvey-type situation where you get 40" of rain in Houston. 

With respect to my original point, beyond the physics fundamentals that are responsible for changes to overall hurricane formation patterns, whose trends are beginning to become more evident now, we are in relatively good phases of several teleconnections at the moment. That helps things along. But at the end of the day, this is quite literally the same thing as boiling a pot of water on the stove. Turn up the energy supplied, you will get more steam. 

[Gulfcoaster11]

.

[Kevin Reilly]

4 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

A lot of factors. Various teleconnections feed into the Atlantic basin, and thus their phase and orientation can affect the synoptic environment. Hurricanes are heat and momentum transporters. There is more of both at the equator, and less at the poles. Hurricanes do well as I'm sure you know in barotropic environments. Due to (possibly/probably/degrees-of-relativity), climate change, fundamentally two things are happening:

 

1) There is more heat in the ocean, and that heat penetrates to a greater depth, on average.

 

2) The temperature gradient between the equator and poles is weakening.

 

Point 2 has a BUNCH of MAJOR consequences, but, one simple one is, baroclinicity (aka zones of frontal development and the opposite of a barotropic environment), decreases. In simple terms: the temperature difference between the poles, and equator, is decreasing. This reduces frontal strength and makes the environment more homogenous--barotropic--and thus, conducive to hurricane development. 

 

It goes without saying that there's more to the story than that, but just taking a big step back, you can certainly note a pattern of destructive, high intensity, rapidly strengthening, water-laden hurricanes hitting the gulf....and everywhere else... over the past few decades. That's not in itself atypical in a vacuum, rather, the consistently increased number of strong storms is the red flag...e.g., the frequency. Another thing that happens with reduced latitudinal temperature gradients is that the steering winds are more prone to break down. Wind--> balance of PGF & Coriolis (assuming you also know this). Less temperature contrast--> less pressure contrast--> less PGF--> less wind--> storms tend to slow down and can "linger" over cities which causes the Harvey-type situation where you get 40" of rain in Houston. 

With respect to my original point, beyond the physics fundamentals that are responsible for changes to overall hurricane formation patterns, whose trends are beginning to become more evident now, we are in relatively good phases of several teleconnections at the moment. That helps things along. But at the end of the day, this is quite literally the same thing as boiling a pot of water on the stove. Turn up the energy supplied, you will get more steam. 

 Very very true I’m totally supporting these facts!  These factors are evident and are happening from Harvey to Henri you name it.  Let’s not forget too the catastrophic event at Waverly TN last week I mean 17.02” of rain in 5 hours.  Warmer air holds more moisture for sure and energy!!

[David Reimer]

Just now, tim123 said:

Nhc dropped the ball on the recon flights. Extremely important data being lost out on. 

The plane will be in there within 30-40 minutes. Be happy the 53rd was able to scramble another aircraft so quickly. Otherwise, you'd be waiting another four hours for data.

[jojo762]

Just now, tim123 said:

Nhc dropped the ball on the recon flights. Extremely important data being lost out on. 

Actually they likely organized an impromptu emergency recon flight (when one was really, already, supposed to be happening but wasn't due to mechanical issues)... 

[Prismshine Productions]

.

The key here is noticing the colors getting brighter, still bombing

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

[jojo762]

Unapologetically, I present the ADT estimates again, but probably the last one i'll post.

~125mph cat 3 Final T#, Raw T# well into cat 4 strength. 

[hlcater]

Mesovorts present in the eyewall. We are losing pressure and fast.

 

[canderson]

Something to watch - 3 of NOLA’’s 20 pumps are down and the other 17 are all already at capacity. 
 

 

[Prismshine Productions]

Unapologetically, I present the ADT estimates again, but probably the last one i'll post.
~125mph cat 3 Final T#, Raw T# well into cat 4 strength. 

2.2mb drop in 40 minutes...

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

[Gravity Wave]

1 minute ago, hlcater said:

Mesovorts present in the eyewall. We are losing pressure and fast.

 

Shades of Laura and Michael.

[Moderately Unstable]

9 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

The plane will be in there within 30-40 minutes. Be happy the 53rd was able to scramble another aircraft so quickly. Otherwise, you'd be waiting another four hours for data.

It's actually the same aircraft, 303. Let's hope they fixed the issue--it helps that the base is not a long flight from the storm. 

[STxVortex]

AF303 reconn entered Ida from the NNW, has slowed down and descended a little, is now heading due south to the eye, about 50-60nm away.

As of 04:27 UTC Aug 29, 2021:
Aircraft Position: 28.07°N 89.08°W
Bearing: 180° at 120 kt
Altitude: 3136 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 57 kt at 64°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1003.0 mb

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[Radtechwxman]

With the high octane fuel of the Loop Current, I'm surprised we aren't seeing a big uptick of eyewall lightning with pressures quickly falling and convection increasing.