Crazy4Wx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 I get the feeling that there might be a 20ft+ storm surge in this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 00z Rgem has eastern eyewall into New orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Just now, tim123 said: 00z Rgem has eastern eyewall into New orleans. I think we knew that was coming…going to be rough ride for the big easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: 00z Rgem has eastern eyewall into New orleans. 3 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said: I think we knew that was coming…going to be rough ride for the big easy Baton Rouge is no slouch of a city and is going to get slammed too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Each IR sat frame shows wagons circling ever tighter. BOOM, there it is!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Definitely deepening, wouldn’t be surprised if the recon finds us a 3 at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Best hope now for NO is it pushes further east and get them out of ne quad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: Best hope now for NO is it pushes further east and get out of ne quad Very unlikely at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Best hope now for NO is it pushes further east and get out of ne quad You know it’s bad when you hope to be in the eye. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Looking pretty bad azz now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 0z GFS -- east at 12 hours vs. 18z at 18 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 24 minutes ago, Jebman said: What this can mean is that there may not be time for an eye wall replacement cycle to get started which would lead to some slight weakening but as mentioned already it could be strengthening up to landfall. This was the basis to my extreme First Call on Thursday. Still feel that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, beanskip said: 0z GFS -- east at 12 hours vs. 18z at 18 hours. Pretty significant jump again. Considering the timeframe. Def puts western parts of New Orleans in the eyewall 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Looks like recon should be getting to outer skirts of Ida in 10-15 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 "Pinwheel" looking eye developing now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said: I get the feeling that there might be a 20ft+ storm surge in this The post Katrina wall can take up to 15'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Yikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Dvorak 954 est 105 knots Looks like Grand Isle LF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 I'm surprised NHC didn't at least move the hurricane warning eastward to capture Hancock County, MS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 As usually happens when a storm is deepening upon landfall the wind damage is much greater. A 125 mph cane deepening at landfall is far worse than a weakening 125 mph cane at landfall. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STxVortex Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Ida is lighting off the afterburners. Dr. Cowan's aircraft reconn page has been stuck at 0317utc for 1/2h+. But from the last fix AF303 Mission #12 should only be ~20 minutes out from Ida's core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Just now, Calderon said: I'm surprised NHC didn't at least move the hurricane warning eastward to capture Hancock County, MS. Yeah I thought they would at least put up watches again for the MS coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 10 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said: You know it’s bad when you hope to be in the eye. Wouldn’t getting the eye just 30 miles east of NO be huge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Yikes Well we know this is too weak considering we are down to 954 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Yeah Ida with no exaggeration really looks better each frame. Would be surprised if recon doesn't find a category 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, ldub23 said: As usually happens when a storm is deepening upon landfall the wind damage is much greater. A 125 mph cane deepening at landfall is far worse than a weakening 125 mph cane at landfall. Not sure why this got a weenie, but its absolutely true...intensifying systems more proficiently mix higher gusts down to the surface. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 T-numbers shooting up: 5.6 current, 6.1 raw; Satcon showing major (100) with hourly up to 105kt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Think this will go just west of mouth of Mississippi and east of Houma. Bad track for new orleans 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gulfcoaster11 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 ~70 minutes per frame. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Well we know this is too weak considering we are down to 954 mb Ignore the strength with the globals at this point, what matters is the track. That shows the right eyewall almost over NO. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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