turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Notably, Key West gusted to 64 mph yesterday during Ida's closest approach. Here's a snippet from NWS Key West disco early this morning: "After an extremely active late afternoon/evening and overnight period, with fast-moving squalls producing numerous wind gusts over 35 knots and a few gusts over 50 knots, weather conditions are starting to quiet down across the Florida Keys and surrounding coastal waters" Gusts in excess of 60 mph being reported at the oil rigs offshore the Mississippi Delta, and first squall line has moved in across the Delta. The hurricane has begun! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, hazwoper said: So for this storm, it should be fine. Who knows with today’s climate how long it will hold in the future It's probably fine but I wouldn't want to bet my life on it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 7 minutes ago, David Reimer said: NOAA plane is departing and with the USAF aircraft OOS mechanical, we won't have recon back into Ida until 3 AM CT Sunday. What a wonderful time to have no recon in a system. Reminds me of last year when the plane was half way to Eta and then turned around during the most impressive satellite presentation of the storm and probably a cat 5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 The TUTT cell to the west has finally started sinking south in the last couple of hours. We should start seeing a more westerly component to motion now (finally). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 IR presentation rapidly becoming more impressive, vigorous deep convection wrapping all the way around. Probably making a run to Cat 4 right now, recon or not. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-14-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 so frustrating there is no plane.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: IR presentation rapidly becoming more impressive, vigorous deep convection wrapping all the way around. Probably making a run to Cat 4 right now, recon or not. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-14-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined I was just gonna say. I've been kinda blah about Ida's appearance all evening but I think this may finally be the strengthening trend we've been anticipating. Ida is also crossing over the loop current heat as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 this station will be close to taking a direct hit.. w https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=lopl1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 When is landfall? 24 hours? Still lots of time. Starting to wrap deep connection around eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Just now, tim123 said: When is landfall? 24 hours? Still lots of time. Starting to wrap deep connection around eye. More like 15-18 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Hurricane-force wind radii is quite large. If landfall still occurs near OFCL theres a chance areas as far as the LA/MS coast could see hurricane-force winds -- likely for several hours. Meanwhile raw ADT estimates are approaching category 4 intensity... but the final ADT# is sitting at ~115mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Yeah it's possible that the pressure keeps lowering and then the winds end up catching up to 100-120 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: When is landfall? 24 hours? Still lots of time. Starting to wrap deep connection around eye. Less than 18. Clock is ticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: so frustrating there is no plane.. That's the cue for it to form a pinhole eye and increase 40kts in 6 hrs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Just now, Amped said: That's the cue for it to form a pinhole eye and increase 40kts in 6 hrs. yeap, already can see it on satellite, wonder if they up it to CAT3 at 11 pm based on satellite and other info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Here's hoping that the next recon plan won't have issues like the one plane earlier. I'll be asleep during that time so I won't know until I wake up. Should also mention that if Ida takes a direct hit on the NWS of New Orleans, there's a small possibility that Ida might destroy the WSR-88D if Ida strengthens to cat 4 or stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Just now, Amped said: That's the cue for it to form a pinhole eye and increase 40kts in 6 hrs. *AF recon has issues resulting in no recon until very early in the morning* Ida: "hold my beer" 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I was just gonna say. I've been kinda blah about Ida's appearance all evening but I think this may finally be the strengthening trend we've been anticipating. Ida is also crossing over the loop current heat as we speak. If it just keeps deepening at the rate it has all day it’ll be in the 940s and that’s a pretty beastly storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Less than 18. Clock is ticking. It is. But dry air is pretty much gone from the core now. This is going to be a nightmare. Especially with the the more confidence in the eastern track. Ugly things are going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 looking at latest 0z hrrr looks like just west of Houma 2-3 pm tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Do we know of any chasers going in to this beast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Hot towers going up on all sides. Radar confirms that there's a small eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Just now, cut said: Do we know of any chasers going in to this beast? iCyclone Josh is chasing this one along with Mark Suddoth. Several other chasers are chasing this as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, cut said: Do we know of any chasers going in to this beast? Joelsh and potentially Joey Krastel (@NimbusStorms) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Probably looking at a 110-115 MPH storm currently given the impressive core organization of the past few hours, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Purely looking at the traffic maps the evacuation looks pretty anemic. Usual backups on I-10 but thats about it. I really hope these folks know what they signed up for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, cut said: I think even the hardiest might want to skip this one. there will be plenty, will start linking them as we get closer to LF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 If we were doing ~3.5mb/hr earlier, pressure is probably in free fall now. Closed -70 ring, universally cooling CDO and multiple convective bursts on all sides of the eyewall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2021 Author Share Posted August 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, cut said: Do we know of any chasers going in to this beast? Should be a number of them down there. Will hate to miss this one but the calendar just didn’t work for me this time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Should be a number of them down there. Will hate to miss this one but the calendar just didn’t work for me this time. Jim Tang and Matt Coker will be there. As will Ryan Hearne/Ryan Darr. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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