Major Hurricane Ida

[Prismshine Productions]

966...

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[WE GOT HIM]

966 on current pass

[mempho]

But probable
Just like everyone saying it's heading to New Orleans.
Models can only do so much. Especially during the fact that you have a TC strengthening. 
I can tell you that the current center fix with a strengthening center is already too far east and curving to make landfall in New Orleans.
It's going to be east. 

So, in reading this.... It looks like there is no risk to NOLA other than wind damage. There is NO risk of storm surge inside the new levee system (according to forecasts)....

I find that disconcerting in a way. It seems like the Titanic when it was deemed "unsinkable."

Exact text:

STORM SURGE - No storm surge inundation forecast - THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Little to no storm surge flooding - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the previous assessment. - PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding. Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip currents are possible. - PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding are needed. - ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor forecasts. - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None - Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding.

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[hazwoper]

3 minutes ago, mempho said:

So, in reading this.... It looks like there is no risk to NOLA other than wind damage. There is NO risk of storm surge inside the new levee system (according to forecasts)....

I find that disconcerting in a way. It seems like the Titanic when it was deemed "unsinkable."

Exact text:



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Katrina was 16 years and billions of dollars in flood protection ago.  The levees won’t be topped.  The main concern for within the protected areas are wind and rain as the pumps can only pump a certain amount of rainfall per hour

[jojo762]

91kt/105mph FL and 85kt/98mph SFMR found by recon in the NE quad, as well as extrap pressure of 965.1mb.

[Bostonseminole]

9 minutes ago, user13 said:

966 on current pass

yeah, I mean it can be just as bad with a steady strengthening storm, you don't always  need RI

[jojo762]

Most importantly the max-winds are much closer to the eye than they were in the original pass a couple hours ago. Sure looks like all systems are go...

[mempho]

Katrina was 16 years and billions of dollars in flood protection ago.  The levees won’t be topped.  The main concern for within the protected areas are wind and rain as the pumps can only pump a certain amount of rainfall per hour

I understand that... I was just stating that it felt disconcerting for them to actually say that in the warning text.

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[mempho]

Katrina was 16 years and billions of dollars in flood protection ago.  The levees won’t be topped.  The main concern for within the protected areas are wind and rain as the pumps can only pump a certain amount of rainfall per hour

Also- question here from someone who knows nothing about the new system. Does this new system protect against even the most intense hurricanes imaginable?

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[Brian D]

What is the tide forecast? High/low/in between? Anyone?

[sojitodd]

2 minutes ago, mempho said:

I understand that... I was just stating that it felt disconcerting for them to actually say that in the warning text.

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Quote

There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.

They did not exactly say no threat-they hedged their bets with the "little to no" threat. 

[Roger Smith]

Appears to be heading steadily towards the mouth of the Mississippi or within 25 miles west of that for landfall, and it reminds me of the 1900 Galveston hurricane which probably peaked around landfall at cat-4. 

I will take their word for the reduced surge threat where the levees are in place but what about water flooding up from the Gulf through low-lying areas west of the River? Has that been fortified at all? It has probably been quite a long time since this type of inundation occurred so close to greater New Orleans, cases that come to mind were further west. 

[Bostonseminole]

 

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 0:54Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Name: Ida
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 23 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 0:34:52Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.73N 87.73W
B. Center Fix Location: 258 statute miles (416 km) to the S (187°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,827m (9,275ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 967mb (28.56 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 130° at 10kts (From the SE at 12mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 87kts (100.1mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the NW (309°) of center fix at 0:32:28Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 40° at 74kts (From the NE at 85.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the WNW (294°) of center fix at 0:28:54Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 85kts (97.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix at 0:40:20Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 135° at 91kts (From the SE at 104.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix at 0:40:34Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,071m (10,075ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) which was observed 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the NE (54°) from the flight level center at 0:40:34Z

[jojo762]

967mb drop with 10kt sfc wind.

[mempho]

They did not exactly say no threat-they hedged their bets with the "little to no" threat. 

True... I stand *slightly* corrected.

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[hazwoper]

7 minutes ago, mempho said:

Also- question here from someone who knows nothing about the new system. Does this new system protect against even the most intense hurricanes imaginable?

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I don’t know the exact design standards but I am certain they were designed for Cat 5+  The old levee system was flawed and everyone in the USACE knew it.

anyway this is banter so we should focus on the storm for now.

[sojitodd]

2 minutes ago, mempho said:

True... I stand *slightly* corrected.

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I do get what you are saying though. It does "seem" like they are saying "no threat"-especially probably to the average reader. Hopefully they will be proven right.

[hazwoper]

That far outer band to the NE seems to be restricting good outflow to the NE

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

yeah, I mean it can be just as bad with a steady strengthening storm, you don't always  need RI

Raul, this rate of intensification just make an ERC less likely.

[OSUmetstud]

3 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

I don’t know the exact design standards but I am certain they were designed for Cat 5+  The old levee system was flawed and everyone in the USACE knew it.

anyway this is banter so we should focus on the storm for now.

It was designed for a 1 in 100 year storm and 15 ft of surge. 

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Raul, this rate of intensification just make an ERC less likely.

true, which is bad news

[hlcater]

Starting to get an inner wind maximum indicative of greater core organization.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

true, which is bad news

Bad for wind, good for surge. 

[hazwoper]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

It was designed for a 1 in 100 year storm and 15 ft of surge. 

So for this storm, it should be fine.  Who knows with today’s climate how long it will hold in the future 

[Amped]

12 minutes ago, Brian D said:

What is the tide forecast? High/low/in between? Anyone?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

It was designed for a 1 in 100 year storm and 15 ft of surge. 

That will be challenged IMO...will be close, unless it curls more west

[jacindc]

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, hazwoper said:

So for this storm, it should be fine.  Who knows with today’s climate how long it will hold in the future 

Probably, but not a given...15' surge is possible 

[MattPetrulli]

After looking a little ragged temporarily, a new tower is going up in the eastern eyewall and eye is about as warm as it has ever been.

[David Reimer]

NOAA plane is departing and with the USAF aircraft OOS mechanical, we won't have recon back into Ida until 3 AM CT Sunday. What a wonderful time to have no recon in a system.