Major Hurricane Ida

[MattPetrulli]

Something notable about 5 PM advisory, nearly 50 knot sustained 90 miles from the center

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).  NOAA buoy 42003, located about 90 miles (145 km) east of
the eye, reported peak one-minuted sustained winds of 54 mph (83
km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h) within the past hour or so.

[OSUmetstud]

 

[OSUmetstud]

3 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

She's still leaning east-of-prog and the margin for NOLA taking the NE eyewall is getting razor thin. I keep saying this, but it needs to stop and soon.

You've been solid on catching that. Where is our diabatic ridge coupling???

[thunderbird12]

VDM also reported a secondary flight-level wind maximum (75 kt) in the northeast quadrant, 67 nautical miles northeast of the center fix. Hard to say whether that is important or not without a longer time series of data, though. 

[Santa Clause]

974 seems kinda high, definitely looks better than it’s hard numbers right now.

[csnavywx]

5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

You've been solid on catching that. Where is our diabatic ridge coupling???

Yeah no kidding. Kind of need that right now. Ida has *kind of* taken her time getting re-organized today, so I imagine we're not quite getting the extra boost.

There's a bit of an easterly shear vector in the mid-upper levels tonight and RI should be fully underway. Hoping that gives her a nudge back to the west before LF.

[Santa Clause]

This storm seems similar to Betsy in path and strength.

[Amped]

Looks like another convective burst just starting up around the eye.  This one looks a more circular at least for now.

[bdgwx]

Per the official 21Z update the IKE is now 23 TJ.

[Bostonseminole]

definitely seeing the convections finally wrap around the center, let's see if it holds 

[Tezeta]

4 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Per the official 21Z update the IKE is now 23 TJ.

[Amped]

There a decent percentage of storms that start RI at around 975mb

[jojo762]

I understand that they missed the true-center to the south by a little bit.. But this is not exactly the most impressive eye dropsonde -- speaks to the structural/organization troubles Ida has had today wrt intensifying at a greater clip. For some reason the core has really struggled to become better organized/tight today, not sure why really. Not something we are going to be able to diagnose easily without the HH radar readily available. 

[dan11295]

I know the expansion of the wind field was expected, and I am assuming the surge forecasts factored that in?

[LakeEffectKing]

1 hour ago, hlcater said:

What do you think about peak intensity?

 If dry air doesn't come in to play, probably 150

[Down The Rabbit Hole]

1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

I understand that they missed the true-center to the south by a little bit.. But this is not exactly the most impressive eye dropsonde -- speaks to the structural/organization troubles Ida has had today wrt intensifying at a greater clip. For some reason the core has really struggled to become better organized/tight today, not sure why really. Not something we are going to be able to diagnose easily without the HH radar readily available. 

Dry air - you can see it in the WV loops

[hlcater]

I'm not sure why everyone seems to be so convinced that the storm is struggling. It's deepened more than 12mb since this morning. I'm not really sure what people expected?

 

[Bostonseminole]

Just now, hlcater said:

I'm not sure why everyone seems to be so convinced that the storm is struggling. It's deepened more than 12mb since this morning. I'm not really sure what people expected?

 

seems pretty steady strengthening to me, even if it gets stronger, slowly next 12 hrs it will be a CAT 4

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I'm not sure why everyone seems to be so convinced that the storm is struggling. It's deepened more than 12mb since this morning. I'm not really sure what people expected?

 

People expect Katrina.

[MattPetrulli]

4 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I'm not sure why everyone seems to be so convinced that the storm is struggling. It's deepened more than 12mb since this morning. I'm not really sure what people expected?

 

 

2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

seems pretty steady strengthening to me, even if it gets stronger, slowly next 12 hrs it will be a CAT 4

Satellite has the best look of its lifetime so far currently too

[Brian D]

My thoughts here. Ridge tomorrow a.m. stands tough in SE and as it nears shore, a little land friction will move this thing a little west. With it becoming a large, very strong system, it will be influenced easier by these. And it's supposed to slow some coming in, I do believe, so that, too, will make it easier to be influenced by said factors.

Either way, a very bad day for LA coming up tomorrow

[csnavywx]

6 minutes ago, Down The Rabbit Hole said:

Dry air - you can see it in the WV loops

Won't matter unless it can get ingested. She's sitting in a large moisture envelope and under low shear. Pretty well buffered at the moment.

[jojo762]

7 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I'm not sure why everyone seems to be so convinced that the storm is struggling. It's deepened more than 12mb since this morning. I'm not really sure what people expected?

 

The storm is in a pristine environment for intensification, and its core has sputtered most of the morning and afternoon on satellite -- struggling to become inertially stable, which would allow more energy to be expended on intensification instead of structural matters.... Little doubt it will eventually undergo RI, but its current state at this moment in time does not seem like it would readily allow for it.

EDIT: There's been posts all morning and afternoon doing a PxP of "wow the IR presentation looks the best yet!!"

[SnowGoose69]

Once again it appears its ready to take off and its kicking that area of dry air out to the west but it could ultimately wrap it back in again in 2-3 hours so who knows

[Amped]

8 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

 If dry air doesn't come in to play, probably 150

It's closely following Laura's intensity VS time curve.

[Gravity Wave]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

It's closely following Laura's intensity VS time curve.

IIRC Laura also really blew up the evening before its landfall after taking its time getting organized for most of that day.

[LakeEffectKing]

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

Hah, I wondered where you were at. 

Yeah, it's been slowly symmetrizing all day after being a bit tilted and asymmetric this morning. Should be able to take advantage of its improved structure tonight.

 Been working a lot. Also closing on a new house.

 Yes, even under ideal conditions shins it takes a while for is for the centers to align.  Most of the hurricane models didn't have this deepening rapidly until this evening, through tomorrow morning. It really should have no issues obtaining 140.... Quickly.

Really don't like the trends of the  Hurricane models going east at this late stage.

[hlcater]

8 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

The storm is in a pristine environment for intensification, and its core has sputtered most of the morning and afternoon on satellite -- struggling to become inertially stable, which would allow more energy to be expended on intensification instead of structural matters.... Little doubt it will eventually undergo RI, but its current state at this moment in time does not seem like it would readily allow for it.

EDIT: There's been posts all morning and afternoon doing a PxP of "wow the IR presentation looks the best yet!!"

Well okay, think of it this way, when there’s continuous play by play with “this is the best it’s looked!!!1!1!!1!!” chances are the storm isn’t struggling at all, but rather continuing to steadily intensify. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said:

 Been working a lot. Also closing on a new house.

 Yes, even under ideal conditions shins it takes a while for is for the centers to align.  Most of the hurricane models didn't have this deepening rapidly until this evening, through tomorrow morning. It really should have no issues obtaining 140.... Quickly.

Really don't like the trends of the  Hurricane models going east at this late stage.

 

It seems no matter how pristine conditions are that once you are out of the eastern Caribbean or open Atlantic east of the Islands these systems typically won't deepen a ton during the diurnal period...it usually occurs at night 

[jojo762]

To clarify, I do actually agree that Ida looks the best it has all afternoon. But that does not mean that it's core has not sputtered most of the afternoon and morning -- while still gradually intensifying. Likewise we're approaching the well-advertised go-time/Dmax, so this whole "it's sputtering" argument is about to get blown to smithereens.