Major Hurricane Ida

[csnavywx]

2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

This will be 140mph+ by morning, if not sooner...

Hah, I wondered where you were at. 

Yeah, it's been slowly symmetrizing all day after being a bit tilted and asymmetric this morning. Should be able to take advantage of its improved structure tonight.

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, TriPol said:

If we're 6 mph less than a Cat 3, I would've fudged the numbers a bit to get people to evacuate. 

The armchair forecasters saying this was not an issue for NOLA (last night and this AM) are as much to blame as anyone vs. intensity ranking.  

[Crocodile23]

14 minutes ago, TriPol said:

If this already is a Cat 3, I would be concerned about how big this could get entering the warm eddy.

Do we have any high resolution map with current sst there?

[jojo762]

Per latest recon the hurricane-strength wind-field has greatly expanded in the NE quad.

[thunderbird12]

Just now, jojo762 said:

Per latest recon the hurricane-strength wind-field has greatly expanded in the NE quad.

Definitely. Based on flight-level winds, the hurricane-force wind field may extend 60+ miles to the northeast. Quite a large area of tropical storm force winds as well.  

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Just can't seem to get over that hurdle yet. Tonight should be interesting to say the least. Quite a picturesque cane for what it is so far. 

Kinda reminds me of Irma...remember after that first bout of RI close to Africa it kind of hung out at the borderline between Cat. 2/3 for a day or two and then it hit the rocket fuel. Of course Ida doesn't have that long but it's hitting the rocket fuel now.

[WxWatcher007]

970.4mb extrapolated pressure on the center pass. 

Unflagged 90kt FL wind and 79kt SFMR peak wind. 

[MattPetrulli]

SFMR lagging a bit, should catch up with pressure soon though. Assuming this is the strongest quad.

[Radtechwxman]

Just now, TriPol said:

If we're 6 mph less than a Cat 3, I would've fudged the numbers a bit to get people to evacuate. 

Can't really fudge numbers. That's unethical if it isn't true. Hunters hunters will be in soon and can give more accurate information than Dvorak analysis 

[hlcater]

 

More important than the pressure I think is the configuration of the core windfield. It's still quite broad and an intense inner wind max hasn't really developed yet. It has some work to do yet, and my guess is that the intense eyewall and inner wind max develops once we get a few really good, intense convective bursts in the core.

[cptcatz]

18 minutes ago, IMADreamer said:

I understand the sentiment but it's important to be accurate with your reporting.  Unfortunately we live in a country where science is already not trusted by many, fudging numbers to reach the next cat does not help that cause any.  I am sure the people who are going to get out are already doing so. 6mph isn't going to change many minds. 

Seriously. Imagine the outrage if it came to light that "the authorities" faked numbers in order to encourage people to do something which the authorities believed was best for the people but the people may not have agreed.

[ineedsnow]

I think they missed the true center to the south... next pass will likely be lower

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, hlcater said:

 

More important than the pressure I think is the configuration of the core windfield. It's still quite broad and an intense inner wind max hasn't really developed yet. It has some work to do yet, and my guess is that the intense eyewall and inner wind max develops once we get a few really good, intense convective bursts in the core.

Agree here. Would be good to see what the other quadrants look like. 

[Amped]

The windfield still looks a bit expanded.  Only see one eyewall though which is a good sign.

[jojo762]

That kind of wind profile they found, with the main wind-max displaced from “where it should be” with what we traditionally think of as a storm “about to undergo” RI, just doesn’t make it seem like it’s going to be able to intensify rapidly anytime soon.

Perhaps it was their weird flight heading change before entering the eye, but that’s just my two-cents. 

[OSUmetstud]

3 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

That kind of wind profile they found, with the main wind-max displaced from “where it should be” with what we traditionally think of as a storm “about to undergo” RI, just doesn’t make it seem like it’s going to be able to intensify rapidly anytime soon.

Perhaps it was their weird flight heading change before entering the eye, but that’s just my two-cents. 

I'm not seeing that. The max wind band was about .2 degrees of the lowest pressure they found. It is a large storm with decent-sized eye and that might limit strengthening, but it's where it "should be." 

[Gulfcoaster11]

Little western wobble, which I expect to be shortly followed by a northern wobble, then a complete wrapping of convection. RI is not a gradual process, so often, it’s not there, not there, not there, then BOOM, it’s on. That’s how this will go down. Like a flip of a switch, everything clicks and it’s on like donkey Kong. This will happen sooner rather than later, like I said, things are happening. 

[jacindc]

The moment when the separated colder tops found each other.

 

[jojo762]

2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I'm not seeing that. The max wind band was about .2 degrees of the lowest pressure they found. It is a large storm with decent-sized eye and that might limit strengthening, but it's where it "should be." 

Eight additional Hurricane-force wind barbs on the TT recon map between the max and the beginning of the eye. With the strongest systems, from my experience, there’s usually the strongest winds of the hurricane and then the beginning of the eye with no space in between really. 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, jacindc said:

The moment when the separated colder tops found each other.

 

There's no magic to the color transitions

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Eight additional Hurricane-force wind barbs on the TT recon map between the max and the beginning of the eye. With the strongest systems, from my experience, there’s usually the strongest winds of the hurricane and then the beginning of the eye with no space in between really. 

That's fair. Recon looks like it missed the center, so some of that might be because they didn't come in perpendicular. 

[hawkeye_wx]

Dropsonde says 973 mb.

[wxeyeNH]

I'm no expert but perhaps it would be a good thing if it went through RI asap and was in the process of it's eye wall replacement cycle as it came ashore.  If the intensification is slower the inner core might be near it's peak at landfall?  Sometimes there is a moat just outside the intense eyewall.  Perhaps New Orleans would be in that moat if the core can stay west enough?  If not New Orleans is in the NE part of the eyewall which I would guess would be about in the worst place.

[jacindc]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

There's no magic to the color transitions

Watch the loop and you'll see why that moment was important.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-14-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, jacindc said:

Watch the loop and you'll see why that moment was important.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-14-12-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 

It's been working to wrap convection around the core for several hours

[Bostonseminole]

F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)

[Gulfcoaster11]

Man, all storms are lopsided wind intensity wise when comparing the east side to west side of the eye, but Ida will be especially lopsided. Riding that ridge to the east is really expanding and intensifying the east side winds, add on shear beating up the west side for most of its adolescence, and also a fast moving storm (forward speed +actual relative velocity = East side winds... forward speed and northerly winds in same direction), this is going to be catastrophic for those on the east side, and unfortunately the east side has 10x more people and monetary assets than the west side. This set up has just been worse case in every way. I fear Ida is on a mission.

[FLweather]

Judging by WV Ida's convection waned some over the last few hours. But she is wrapping up.

Not good.

Now that sunset approaches. Give it a few hours for the upper levels to cool off... No telling what might happen.

[csnavywx]

She's still leaning east-of-prog and the margin for NOLA taking the NE eyewall is getting razor thin. I keep saying this, but it needs to stop and soon.

[WxWatcher007]

Here's the full VDM. As @Bostonseminole notes, the eye is closed and circular. 

 

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 21:40Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Name: Ida
Storm Number & Year: 09 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 10
Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 21:13:29Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.13N 87.08W
B. Center Fix Location: 298 statute miles (480 km) to the S (178°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,867m (9,406ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 974mb (28.77 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 225° at 10kts (From the SW at 12mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 79kts (90.9mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix at 21:07:15Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 145° at 91kts (From the SE at 104.7mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix at 21:06:07Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 70kts (80.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SW (219°) of center fix at 21:18:16Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 297° at 63kts (From the WNW at 72.5mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the SW (219°) of center fix at 21:17:45Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) which was observed 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NE (54°) from the flight level center at 21:06:07Z

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
 

SEC MAX FL WIND 75 KT BRNG:042 deg RNG:67 nm