Major Hurricane Ida

[Amped]

GFS  and Icon have a decent storm.  CMC and Euro are a big sheared mess.

[CheeselandSkies]

Well on the plus side I guess if it is a Laura redux, there's not much left in that area to destroy (don't forget Delta also affected that general area last year). I suspect Cameron, Creole and Grand Chenier are pretty much gone. Only thing is if it does what Laura didn't and comes in a little west of Calcasieu Pass, pushing the surge right through it and into downtown Lake Charles. Laura's landfall was pretty much a center bullseye on the pass, meaning the brunt of the onshore flow/surge was just to the east of there.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

23 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

12Z GFS has landfall in Louisiana at 932 mb.

Internet says Laura was 939.  I know it isn't just the pressure, it is the gradient (1983 Alicia was named a TS w/ 1014 mb central pressure, but it was imbedded in a surface ridge), but 932mb on a 13 km model is scary.  This looks like it hits the same area, although 6 days out, who knows.  I do now I got several students last year from Lake Charles, because their homes were destroyed and they moved or moved in w/ relatives in Houston.  They probably just finishing rebuilding the fishing and oilfield docks in Cameron.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

GFS Ensembles still spraying Mexico to the Florida Panhandle.  8 sub 984 mb hurricanes, South Texas to Florida Panhandle.  

 

 NHC has 3 low level flights and a high altitude data flight tomorrow/Friday morning.  Don't see that for just any old invest.  

[Windspeed]

Well on the plus side I guess if it is a Laura redux, there's not much left in that area to destroy (don't forget Delta also affected that general area last year). I suspect Cameron, Creole and Grand Chenier are pretty much gone. Only thing is if it does what Laura didn't and comes in a little west of Calcasieu Pass, pushing the surge right through it and into downtown Lake Charles. Laura's landfall was pretty much a center bullseye on the pass, meaning the brunt of the onshore flow/surge was just to the east of there.

That's a big if though. Early genesis in the NW Caribbean could open the door for the TC to be anywhere along the north GOM, not necessarily a Laura redo. Note how the PV anomaly north of 99L evolves through the first 72 hours. If 99L's resultant TC deepens faster than the GFS models here, a stronger stacked system is likely to feel the initial poleward 500-300 mb flow over the eastern GOM until the TC's diabetic heat transfer processes squash it. This could result in more intial latitude gain until a gradual bend back NW with increasing 500 dm heights over the eastern CONUS. Lots of possibilities here with a notable heavy flood threat in a stalling inland deluge with a possible block scenario late next week into the following weekend. This is unfortunately another nasty setup for inland flooding.

[hawkeye_wx]

The UK still tracks it over the Yucatan and delays the organization until the far nw gulf.

[cptcatz]

Not sure I've ever seen NHC talk about potential dangerous hurricane impacts from a wave during a TWO:

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical 
wave currently located north of Colombia. Environmental conditions 
are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression or tropical storm is likely to form late this week or 
over the weekend. The system is expected to move northwestward over 
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or across the Yucatan 
Peninsula of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this 
weekend where conditions are expected to be favorable for additional 
development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding 
will be possible through the weekend in portions of Nicaragua, 
Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, 
this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, 
and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, 
and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next 
week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to 
form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress 
of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to 
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

[nwohweather]

I certainly pray this does not track over portions that Laura did. My company lost an employee and has spent millions of dollars rebuilding our facilities following that event last year. To be honest I think we may just have to close it down if it were to take on another strike

[Windspeed]

Uh oh...

[GreekWeatherGod95]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Uh oh...

That’s definitely the worst case scenario. God help those who are in its path.

[A-L-E-K]

4 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I certainly pray this does not track over portions that Laura did. My company lost an employee and has spent millions of dollars rebuilding our facilities following that event last year. To be honest I think we may just have to close it down if it were to take on another strike

u just gotta lol

[Tezeta]

19 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I certainly pray this does not track over portions that Laura did. My company lost an employee and has spent millions of dollars rebuilding our facilities following that event last year. To be honest I think we may just have to close it down if it were to take on another strike

That sucks. What does your company do? Can they rebuild somewhere else?

[Floydbuster]

 

[LoboLeader1]

30° C waters in the Gulf with little shear, yikes.

[csnavywx]

The list of potential negatives for this thing is pretty short. With virtually all lower-res global guidance and ensembles calling this, it's starting to look like one of those events I like to call "synoptically evident".

 

Gotta hope for some sloppy early-stage development or (destructive) land interaction. I don't think outflow shear in the gulf from an Epac storm alone is going to cut it in this case.

[nwohweather]

u just gotta lol

I mean dozens of people losing their jobs doesn’t sound funny to me…

[nwohweather]

That sucks. What does your company do? Can they rebuild somewhere else?

Yeah we can but all those people locally would lose the work. We’d basically move everything over to Houston and close that down permanently

[csnavywx]

Just now, nwohweather said:

Yeah we can but all those people locally would lose the work. We’d basically move everything over to Houston and close that down permanently

Lots of spread still -- plenty of time for it to change. Crossing my fingers for ya.

[Tezeta]

4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The list of potential negatives for this thing is pretty short. With virtually all lower-res global guidance and ensembles calling this, it's starting to look like one of those events I like to call "synoptically evident".

 

Gotta hope for some sloppy early-stage development or (destructive) land interaction. I don't think outflow shear in the gulf from an Epac storm alone is going to cut it in this case.

Yeah, you have to root for it to be big and loose. That’s the most likely failure mode. 

[Windspeed]

The list of potential negatives for this thing is pretty short. With virtually all lower-res global guidance and ensembles calling this, it's starting to look like one of those events I like to call "synoptically evident".
 
Gotta hope for some sloppy early-stage development or (destructive) land interaction. I don't think outflow shear in the gulf from an Epac storm alone is going to cut it in this case.

Dr Papin mentioned this in his latest post. The same PV helping to lift 99L's resultant TC into the central GOM also seems to act as a buffer between airmass evacuation from the potential EPAC system and the same from the GOM system. At any rate, the overall upper environment looks considerably conducive for an intensifying hurricane, especially given the westerly + northerly branch outflow jets.

[Floydbuster]

4 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Dr Papin mentioned this in his latest post. The same PV helping to lift 99L's resultant TC into the central GOM also seems to act as a buffer between airmass evacuation from the potential EPAC system and the same from the GOM system. At any rate, the overall upper environment looks considerably conducive for an intensifying hurricane, especially given the westerly + southerly branch outflow jets.
 

If we are reaching for reasons to inhibit strengthening, we could have a real serious hurricane on our hands.

 

[Windspeed]

If we are reaching for reasons to inhibit strengthening, we could have a real serious hurricane on our hands.
 

Well we still don't have a closed vortex to track and initialize more accurate modeling. Arguably, the ECMWF and GFS operationals, though rare to be in such alignment pre-TCG, might be way off if 99L is delayed in undergoing genesis. If it occurs near the Riveria Maya or tracks longer over the Yucatán, that could definitely help as an inhibitor. But we are reaching if this merely crosses extreme NE Yucatán, the channel, or even western tip of Cuba. The aforementioned scenario could help keep the TC a low-end hurricane if there are structural and organizational issues. But the latter would increase the odds of major, perhaps intense hurricane unfortunately.

[LoboLeader1]

 

[AChilders]

18Z GFS coming in much stronger and northeast at hour 72

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

6 minutes ago, AChilders said:

18Z GFS coming in much stronger and northeast at hour 72

It seems to be consolidating the 850 mb center farther North, which would make sense if the MLC is strong enough to form an LLC.  I don't think the Florida Panhandle is off the hook.  Barely clips the W tip of Cuba, minimal land interaction.

[schoeppeya]

18z bombs into NOLA

[ldub23]

8 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

18z bombs into NOLA

Actually  its  considerably weaker than 12z. Maybe  its  going so fast  it will never really  do much. So far this  hasnt  been a season of  quality. My guess is the further east  it  goes the weaker  it will be.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

3 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

18z bombs into NOLA

On a worst case track moving NW.  I know the levees were rebuilt to be stronger and less likely to experience over-wash, which resulted in a lot of failures, but they don't need this.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Sunday is sooner than the models had been showing before...

[ldub23]

10 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Sunday is sooner than the models had been showing before...

Yea, and it appears the  faster  it  goes the  weaker  it will be. Hopefully if this so far short weakening trend  continues  it will come  in as a  cat1 rainmaker.