hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 New dropsonde: 985 mb I thought for sure Ida would be in full strengthening mode this morning, but so far it's not happening. It is only holding steady while it tries to form an inner core. Ida only has about thirty hours left over water. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Looks like the eye is circular now. Still not closed but now that it’s circular it should happen pretty soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 lets not forget what Katrina looked like before all those famous "eye" shots. With RI it won't take much for this to have the "look" everyone has been waiting for. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: lets not forget what Katrina looked like before all those famous "eye" shots. With RI it won't take much for this to have the "look" everyone has been waiting for. I remember Katrina where everyone kept saying as soon as it develops an eye it would strengthen even more and it kept falling apart. Only just before landfall did the eye really look good. I've watched many storms in the Gulf since then where the same discussion happens. A perfect eye is expected, should appear, and they fall apart. Yet we get perfect eyes approaching the Yucatan and out in the Atlantic. Maybe some unknown phenomena has developed in the Gulf that makes it harder for a perfect eye to manifest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Just now, Prospero said: I remember Katrina where everyone kept saying as soon as it develops an eye it would strengthen even more and it kept falling apart. Only just before landfall did the eye really look good. I've watched many storms in the Gulf since then where the same discussion happens. A perfect eye is expected, should appear, and they fall apart. Yet we get perfect eyes approaching the Yucatan and out in the Atlantic. Maybe some unknown phenomena has developed in the Gulf that makes it harder for a perfect eye to manifest. That phenomenon is called "Cat 4s and 5s are still quite rare". 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 We could have another case of a strengthening cane till landfall. If it delays its RI phase there won't be much time to cool off. Additionally people are not gonna evacuate unless they see it's a major cane coming towards them. That may not happen until 12 hrs before landfall giving no time to leave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Looks like Ida finally opening up a eye via WV. A small one atm. Towers continuing to build N,E,S of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: New dropsonde: 985 mb I thought for sure Ida would be in full strengthening mode this morning, but so far it's not happening. It is only holding steady while it tries to form an inner core. Ida only has about thirty hours left over water. Yep. It’s organizing, but the intensification is lagging a bit. For now at least. Pressure (extrapolated) looks to have fallen modestly on the latest pass. Also shameless plug: less than two hours left for everyone to enter their Ida forecast in the contest. There’s a separate thread for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 29 minutes ago, FLweather said: Looks like Ida finally opening up a eye via WV. A small one atm. Towers continuing to build N,E,S of the center. The latest hot towers are pinwheeling more tightly around the center than the ones first thing this morning. Steady deepening should begin soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gulfcoaster11 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 RI was never really going to occur until it crossed the 25th parallel. Conditions are all go now, getting into the warm, and deep warm waters, shear is negligible, core is really becoming organized, outflow is set up. All systems go, Ida will look veryyyyy different in 6 hours. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Two new center dropsonde reports, ~984 mb and ~982 mb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 IR satellite showing pretty definitive warming in the eye over the last several minutes as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 Latest VDM still has the eyewall open Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 14:24ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305Storm Name: IdaStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 21 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 13:57:50ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.74N 85.93WB. Center Fix Location: 252 statute miles (405 km) to the WNW (297°) from Havana, Cuba.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,959m (9,708ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 985mb (29.09 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 200° at 9kts (From the SSW at 10mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the northwestG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 57kts (65.6mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the SSE (153°) of center fix at 13:48:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 236° at 57kts (From between the SW and WSW at 65.6mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SSE (154°) of center fix at 13:50:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 63kts (72.5mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix at 14:02:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 51° at 59kts (From the NE at 67.9mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix at 14:04:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and PressureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) which was observed 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the NE (43°) from the flight level center at 12:31:30ZMaximum Flight Level Temp: 14°C (57°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the SE (135°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gulfcoaster11 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Two new center dropsonde reports, ~984 mb and ~982 mb.Yep, pressure is about to begin its free fall. As I mentioned, it is crossing the 25th parallel now, about to ride the warm current all the way to the launching pad loop. 25th parallel highlighted with the white line, we are now entering the danger zone. . 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Latest VDM still has the eyewall open Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 14:24ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305Storm Name: IdaStorm Number & Year: 09 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 21 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 13:57:50ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.74N 85.93WB. Center Fix Location: 252 statute miles (405 km) to the WNW (297°) from Havana, Cuba.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,959m (9,708ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 985mb (29.09 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 200° at 9kts (From the SSW at 10mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the northwestG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 57kts (65.6mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the SSE (153°) of center fix at 13:48:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 236° at 57kts (From between the SW and WSW at 65.6mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SSE (154°) of center fix at 13:50:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 63kts (72.5mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix at 14:02:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 51° at 59kts (From the NE at 67.9mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix at 14:04:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and PressureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 72kts (~ 82.9mph) which was observed 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the NE (43°) from the flight level center at 12:31:30ZMaximum Flight Level Temp: 14°C (57°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the SE (135°) from the flight level center It looks like mission 8 is getting more impressive readings overall for whatever reason. They had 983 mb with a 16 kt wind at splashdown along with flight level winds of 82 knots and SFMR of 67 knots. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gulfcoaster11 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gulfcoaster11 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Latest NHC advisory lowers max forecast winds to 115kt from 120kt. Not that it makes much of a difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gulfcoaster11 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Winds will take an hour or two to catch up but I expect atleast 2mb drop every recon pass over the next 12 hours (between 10am CDT and 10pm CDT on 8/28), and then the next 6 hours after that will be the peak intensification period. I expect it to be somewhere around 965mb 12 hours from now (10pm CDT on 8/28), the next 6 hours after that, up until sunrise Sunday morning, will be the difference between a really bad storm, and a historic storm. I think between 10pm tonight and 6 am tomorrow, it could drop up to 30mb, but probably closer to 25mb. 940mb-945mb by sunrise tomorrow. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Latest NHC advisory lowers max forecast winds to 115kt from 120kt. Not that it makes much of a difference. Also shifted a bit west. Better for New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Also shifted a bit west. Better for New Orleans. Looks the same to me mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Definitely was expecting to wake up to a much stronger cane. IR presentation is improving though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Latest NHC advisory lowers max forecast winds to 115kt from 120kt. Not that it makes much of a difference. Well it shows 115 kt offshore, and 115 kts after landfall, implying they're sticking to their 120 kt landfall forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Well it shows 115 kt offshore, and 115 kts after landfall, implying they're sticking to their 120 kt landfall forecast. And that would be what 135-140mph max intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: And that would be what 135-140mph max intensity? Something like that. It's all moot point because that entire area will probably be submerged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Beautiful outflow as the size of it expands. Looks prime for some RI this afternoon and especially overnight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 Apologies for the banter mods but last chance for everyone to enter their forecast in the contest. Closes in 14 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Despite an improving eye with organization, there has been a notable warming of eyewall convention in last hour or two. Probably won't continue, but important to note 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Eye wall definitive warming, may be encountering some challenges as it continues moving north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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