Prospero Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 64 mph gust at Key West Airport at 1:25 am this morning. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Here's a short description of what that's showing exactly, for those unfamiliar. The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopack42 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 10 hours ago, yotaman said: Wow, looks like a nuclear explosion right over Cuba. Impressive. Can someone please explain how this happens, and what it is? It does not look natural at all. Something similar happened with Henri as well off the coast of NC/VA area that was pointed out as well. It is very strange to say the least (to my undereducated mind as a met noob). Thanks! (mods, sorry if this is not an acceptable post in storm mode...please forgive my ignorance on posting rules as I typically only lurk to read interesting information) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Prospero said: Bombs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, gopack42 said: Can someone please explain how this happens, and what it is? It does not look natural at all. Something similar happened with Henri as well off the coast of NC/VA area that was pointed out as well. It is very strange to say the least (to my undereducated mind as a met noob). Thanks! (mods, sorry if this is not an acceptable post in storm mode...please forgive my ignorance on posting rules as I typically only lurk to read interesting information) Frictional convergence/orographical lift off the mountains. Wasn’t exactly invoked by the eye producing its own hot tower via oceanic content. Rather lift off the mountain range , probably just really good timing. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Yeah, nice explanation of frictional convergence here: https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints3/844/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, Prospero said: The second that eyewall closes its off to the races. Though one thing that could cause problems it if we get a large eye versus a pinhole eye, currently it looks like it trying to make a pinhole style eye. With how the convection is wrapping around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Latest pass just now shows winds and pressure haven't started to respond yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Latest dropsonde says 985 mb. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 7 URNT12 KWBC 281019 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092021 A. 28/09:44:45Z B. 24.06 deg N 085.26 deg W C. 700 MB 3035 m D. 987 mb E. 195 deg 08 kt F. OPEN SE G. E03/35/10 H. 53 kt I. 307 deg 16 nm 09:40:49Z J. 052 deg 52 kt K. 307 deg 22 nm 09:39:16Z L. 63 kt M. 133 deg 14 nm 09:51:04Z N. 225 deg 66 kt O. 132 deg 15 nm 09:51:11Z P. 10 C / 3067 m Q. 14 C / 3053 m R. 10 C / NA S. 12345 / 7 T. 0.01 / 0.5 nm U. NOAA3 0809A IDA OB 07 MAX FL WIND 66 KT 132 / 15 NM 09:51:11Z Weird eye shape there, elliptical with a 30-210 degree axis, 10 NM by 35 NM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: 7 URNT12 KWBC 281019 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092021 A. 28/09:44:45Z B. 24.06 deg N 085.26 deg W C. 700 MB 3035 m D. 987 mb E. 195 deg 08 kt F. OPEN SE G. E03/35/10 H. 53 kt I. 307 deg 16 nm 09:40:49Z J. 052 deg 52 kt K. 307 deg 22 nm 09:39:16Z L. 63 kt M. 133 deg 14 nm 09:51:04Z N. 225 deg 66 kt O. 132 deg 15 nm 09:51:11Z P. 10 C / 3067 m Q. 14 C / 3053 m R. 10 C / NA S. 12345 / 7 T. 0.01 / 0.5 nm U. NOAA3 0809A IDA OB 07 MAX FL WIND 66 KT 132 / 15 NM 09:51:11Z Weird eye shape there, elliptical with a 30-210 degree axis, 10 NM by 35 NM. That would explain the series of opposing cycling hot towers a little while ago -- probably fired along the major axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 First eye dropsonde launched at 9:44 measured 987 mb with 8 kts wind. Second eye dropsonde launched at 11:01 measured 986 mb with 11 kts wind. Seems like it's intensifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, csnavywx said: That would explain the series of opposing cycling hot towers a little while ago -- probably fired along the major axis. It does seem right on the edge of taking off, there was a cyan ring in the 37 Ghz at 07z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 First light 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Am I crazy or is it currently heading on a trajectory straight for nola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 The newest recon dropsonde, ten minutes after the 985 mb dropsonde, says 986 mb. Even quick passage over a thin stretch of Cuba disrupts a storm. It has taken a good ten hours to regroup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Am I crazy or is it currently heading on a trajectory straight for nola Models have been locked into a south-central/southeast Louisiana swamp coast landfall for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: Models have been locked into a south-central/southeast Louisiana swamp coast landfall for a while. Yeah, I mean it looks on the east envelope. I might be hallucinating. She also looks like ms pacman right now so tracking the eye isn't the easiest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 85.7 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion should continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today and move over the central Gulf of Mexico tonight and early Sunday. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf coast within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over portions of Louisiana or western Mississippi later on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. Weakening is expected after Ida makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data is 985 mb (29.09 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Yeah, I mean it looks on the east envelope. I might be hallucinating. She also looks like ms pacman right now so tracking the eye isn't the easiest. Yea. It will tick east a little unfortunately putting NO in the NE quadrant upon LF. Bad news. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. It will tick east a little unfortunately putting NO in the NE quadrant upon LF. Bad news. Most of the guidance just seems a bit too far away to give New Orleans the worst. The bend left near the coast helps them a good deal. It looks like Morgan City and Lafayette is in the cross-hairs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Most of the guidance just seems a bit too far away to give New Orleans the worst. The bend left near the coast helps them a good deal. It looks like Morgan City and Lafayette is in the cross-hairs. I think if makes LF around Port Fourchon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 New dropsonde: 985 mb It's still just holding fairly steady. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Via WV... Ida is becoming highly symmetrical around the center and all quadrants. Very obvious that Ida gaining some steam this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 12Z intensity guidance is actually coming down a bit, many now "only" peaking at a 100-105kt cat 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 She will close that eye wall off relatively soon and it’s all systems go after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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