jojo762 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Per recon the southwest side of Ida is exceedingly weak right now -- barely T.S. strength basing off of combo of FL and SFMR winds, which admittedly is not particularly surprising given current sat presentation in that quadrant + that quad had to deal with the higher terrain in Cuba... Extrap pressure down to ~990mb. Should get data from stronger northeast side soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 So the official 11pm NHC numbers are 989 mb pressure and 80 mph winds. Cuba did not weaken it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Per recon the southwest side of Ida is exceedingly weak right now -- barely T.S. strength basing off of combo of FL and SFMR winds, which admittedly is not particularly surprising given current sat presentation in that quadrant + that quad had to deal with the higher terrain in Cuba... Extrap pressure down to ~990mb. Should get data from stronger northeast side soon. Looks like a decent WNW** shift if the center on that last past compared to the 1st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Per recon the southwest side of Ida is exceedingly weak right now -- barely T.S. strength basing off of combo of FL and SFMR winds, which admittedly is not particularly surprising given current sat presentation in that quadrant + that quad had to deal with the higher terrain in Cuba... Extrap pressure down to ~990mb. Should get data from stronger northeast side soon. It looks like it is ready to wrap up already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Looks like max FL winds in the NE quad of 74kt and max SFMR of 63kt. Gonna take a few hours definitely to ramp back up structurally. Looks like a great time to get some shut eye for what will probably be a wild ride tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 11pm Video on Ida https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPu7UHwCjs4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 18Z Euro ensembles, with balloon sonde data from all over the SE USA and aircraft data, now very well clustered, Central Louisiana to Mississippi. Vermillion parish seems like a best case scenario, Abbeville, New Iberia and Morgan City would have surge issues, Lafayette would have wind issues, but a lot less people affected, especially with no mandatory evacs for NOLA, than Lafourche, Terrebonne or Jefferson parish would mean. Brief West trend seems, eyeball, to have been countered by a NNW trend this evening. Waiting on aircraft center fixes to be sure. Now that is a catastrophic ensemble suite. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 big hot tower last few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: big hot tower last few frames Yeah. For a storm that just came off land it looks pretty awesome tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 It took a bit of a hit but it’s certainly looking more robust on IR the further away from the coast it get. Once it aligns it’ll be off to the races. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 40 minutes ago, Tezeta said: Yeah. For a storm that just came off land it looks pretty awesome tonight. Those outflow channels...there's a reason the hurricane symbol is shaped like it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 SHIPS went Murder Death Kill on the rates...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Ida won't have 72 hours over the Gulf. New GFS looks a smidge West of worst case for NOLA on track. A smidge. St. Mary parish. Still bad, just not worst case. Looks like ensembles all in Louisiana. I think Western Vermillion parish, assuming a major, affects the least number of people in Louisiana. Op GFS over 15" rain near landfall, less than 3 inches in almost all of Tennessee, although they probably don't need any rain for a few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Eye not well defined last VDM, and I can't see it on satellite, but pretty sure that is temporary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 988 with a 20kt surface windSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: 988 with a 20kt surface wind Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 20 knots? That's not even tropical storm strength. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 20 knots? That's not even tropical storm strength.That was in the eye buddy... Official extrap is 986, a 4mb drop in 1 hrSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Well that sucks... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Well that sucks... Dang! Of all the times for this to happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 On track to pass this buoy just to the west in about 12 hours ... https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003 Looking at all guidance, the thing that stands out is the lack of any disruptive influences, so that given the SST values ahead of the storm, intensification could be extreme. I think cat-4 is most likely but cat-5 is possible (around 28-29N). Also the track looks quite bad for surge issues not directly related to Lake Pontchartrain so that outcomes may need to be assessed independent of that sort of surge (although it could come into the mix and be partially mitigated by the aforementioned upgrades). Since no organized evacuation efforts seem likely, would hope that a very poor second best response is scrambled into place, which would be to position all possible military water rescue assets around Lake Charles through the day Saturday into Sunday morning, with the objective of moving them into affected regions Sunday night and Monday once a clear idea exists about where they are most needed. They are probably going to be needed urgently in parishes south and west of New Orleans if not in the city itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Radar improved dramatically over the last 1.5 hrs. The centers are close to aligned and the core is surrounded by a lot more precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Presentation is rapidly improving on IR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Only piece of good news is some of the intensity guidance has come down a bit. some models show a plateau in strength in the 6 hours prior to landfall. NHC hinted at potential dry air. Currently track keeps the worse west of New Orleans also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Storm is about to go to work now. Wouldn’t be shocked if it was a major by noon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Track looks more west, hitting low population swamps…let’s hope it stays that way. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Adjacent hot towers going up on each side of the center.. I’d say she’s getting ready to go to town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 34 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Track looks more west, hitting low population swamps…let’s hope it stays that way. Really don't want it to go any more west though, would really increase impacts to the New Iberia-Lafayette corridor. At least those locations are inland, so would still be much better from a surge perspective. Current track may the "best" spot from an overall population impact. Multiple hot towers on IR, Ida really getting going now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Where is a good source to look for synoptic upper air analogs? I like to use CIPS during the winter storms...Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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