WE GOT HIM Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: People arnt going to leave until they see the storm is a cat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 hour ago, CLTwx said: SMH...for millions. ARE THEY THAT SERIOUS!? They are wasting time for them to get out! If I were living in NOLA, I would just get out no matter what they say . . . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, user13 said: People arnt going to leave until they see the storm is a cat 3 And they have the potential to relive 2005 all over again. (I said potential) I know for sure that this is on blast all across the gulf region. Hopefully the tone of the broadcast alerts is enough to move some people out. This has disaster written all over it and folks will be waking up to their Cat 3 tomorrow morning with nowhere to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: And they have the potential to relive 2005 all over again. (I said potential) I know for sure that this is on blast all across the gulf region. Hopefully the tone of the broadcast alerts is enough to move some people out. This has disaster written all over it and folks will be waking up to their Cat 3 tomorrow morning with nowhere to go. They have a $50B flood wall. New Orleans will not flood. A few roofs may get ripped off. But no surge. And we all know that is what causes loss of life. I apologize if this should be in banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, AChilders said: They have a $50B flood wall. New Orleans will not flood. A few roofs may get ripped off. But no surge. And we all know that is what causes loss of life. I apologize if this should be in banter thread. A $50B flood wall built in New Orleans is a $5B project elsewhere. The graft is impressive, superbly organized and pervasive throughout. I'd have very little confidence that anything has really changed since Katrina, so I hope we will not see. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, etudiant said: A $50B flood wall built in New Orleans is a $5B project elsewhere. The graft is impressive, superbly organized and pervasive throughout. I'd have very little confidence that anything has really changed since Katrina, so I hope we will not see. Other than the outer fortifications that have been made, the 3 flood gates on the canals through the city from Pontchartrain are the most impressive. That back flow of water from the lake back to the Mississippi River is what caused the breaches in the 17th street canal in 2005. I walked it all in September/October of 2005. I know. Banter. I went back after Isaac in 2012. The flood wall was crazy impressive. now back to storm mode… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Just now, AChilders said: now back to storm mode… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Center looks a bit ragged now coming off cuba 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, AChilders said: Other than the outer fortifications that have been made, the 3 flood gates on the canals through the city from Pontchartrain are the most impressive. That back flow of water from the lake back to the Mississippi River is what caused the breaches in the 17th street canal in 2005. I walked it all in September/October of 2005. I know. Banter. I went back after Isaac in 2012. The flood wall was crazy impressive. now back to storm mode… The improvements are indeed impressive but there are still unknowns. One of my favorite quotes comes from a 19th century German Field Marshall named Helmuth von Moltke. “No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main strength.” I tend to hope for the best and prepare for the worst. With all the changes that seem to be happening with our climate I think that might be the best way going forward. It seems to me as if 100 year events are happening every decade. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, jburns said: The improvements are indeed impressive but there are still unknowns. One of my favorite quotes comes from a 19th century German Field Marshall named Helmuth von Moltke. “No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy’s main strength.” I tend to hope for the best and prepare for the worst. With all the changes that seem to be happening with our climate I think that might be the best way going forward. It seems to me as if 100 year events are happening every decade. Ah yes, Professor Burns has entered the chat. Thanks for imparting that wisdom Burnsie! Regardless of flooding, part of the reason you evacuate (beyond death and destruction) is the lack of ability to provide basic services, food, water, gas, electricity for extended periods of time for large populations. Nobody needs to drown to have storm related misery, riots, death and destruction. As someone supplying emergency services equipment and support during my day job, I can tell you the disaster services industry is in a huge pickle right now and is lacking equipment because the gov't just sucked it all up for Afghan camps in the last 96 hours. I have personally supplied Quantico, Goodfellow AFB, Fort Bliss and Fort Dix this week. These folks wont be getting much FEMA help I can assure you of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Ah yes, Professor Burns has entered the chat. Thanks for imparting that wisdom Burnsie! Thanks. If you prefer the blue collar version Mike Tyson said much the same thing in a more direct manner. “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” 10 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Oh no . . . The Inner Core is still intact! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 This microwave image is suggestive of a much larger core forming. Will be interested to see what recon finds 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Low 990s extrap pressure from recon. We probably shouldn't expect to see too much until the entire core gets out into the gulf (~several hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 18Z Euro ensembles, with balloon sonde data from all over the SE USA and aircraft data, now very well clustered, Central Louisiana to Mississippi. Vermillion parish seems like a best case scenario, Abbeville, New Iberia and Morgan City would have surge issues, Lafayette would have wind issues, but a lot less people affected, especially with no mandatory evacs for NOLA, than Lafourche, Terrebonne or Jefferson parish would mean. Brief West trend seems, eyeball, to have been countered by a NNW trend this evening. Waiting on aircraft center fixes to be sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Per recon dropsonde, the pressure is ~991 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Can, anyone comment on that most recent recon data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Per recon dropsonde, the pressure is ~991 mb. Cuba and the island of life do not appear to have had much of an impact on Ida... Pressure a little higher, winds a little lower -- circulation still intact. Last fly in the ointment has come and gone, not great... Circulation appears to be in the Gulf now, bombs away from here. Gonna be a wild ride. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, Doc Jon said: Can, anyone comment on that most recent recon data? Recon found the pressure to be ~5mb higher, and the FL winds are about 75kt with SFMR winds at ~ hurricane strength. Flying south now for another pass here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 As NHC predicted, Cuba had little impact on Ida. Curious to see how soon we will see RI start again. Would think it would start later tonight but if not then for sure all day tomorrow. Very nervous to see what we wake up to tomorrow in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: As NHC predicted, Cuba had little impact on Ida. Curious to see how soon we will see RI start again. Would think it would start later tonight but if not then for sure all day tomorrow. Hopefully it interrupted it enough to keep it from getting its act together for awhile. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: As NHC predicted, Cuba had little impact on Ida. Curious to see how soon we will see RI start again. Would think it would start later tonight but if not then for sure all day tomorrow. Very nervous to see what we wake up to tomorrow in the Gulf. Just a speed bump at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 looks like storms just starting to fire and looks a little east to me.. New Orleans could be hit directly in my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 It appears that the large blowup of convection over cuba was mainly orthographically enhanced which we suspected and now the IR does not look horribly impressive or horrible cant wait to see what this thing is when I wake up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 New Orleans itself should do okay, this is more Charlie like than Katrina.There is no guarantee Ida will be a small-sized hurricane in 24-48 hours range. Yes, Katrina was unusually large. But based on angle of approach, if Ida rapidly intensifies tomorrow and evolves moderate-sized core, it will have a full day to build wave action and increase fetch. It is an exponentially more dangerous surge threat than Charley. That hurricane only had a 5 nm wide eyewall, 15 nm outer eyewall and very little (6 hrs) of maximum intensity lead time to build significant surge. It's sharp turn / angle of approach also mitigated surge.We cannot downplay the surge potential here. This is a very dangerous situation for anyone outside those flood walls. It is hopeful they work as designed and Ida tracks far enough west to mitigate the highest surge there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: There is no guarantee Ida will be a small-sized hurricane in 24-48 hours range. Yes, Katrina was unusually large. But based on angle of approach, if Ida rapidly intensifies tomorrow and evolves moderate-sized core, it will have a full day to build wave action and increase fetch. It is an exponentially more dangerous surge threat than Charlie. That hurricane only had a 5 nm wide eyewall, 15 nm outer eyewall and very little (6 hrs) of maximum intensity lead time to build significant surge. It's sharp turn / angle of approach also mitigated surge. We cannot downplay the surge potential here. This is a very dangerous situation for anyone outside those flood walls. It is hopeful the they work as designed and Ida tracks far enough west to mitigate the highest surge there. Katrina was also weakening. That resulted in probably less wind damage than this storm. However Katrina had a lag surge, it may have been a 3 but likely still had the surge of a 4 or 5. It’s possible Ida might come in as a 4 but have the surge of a 3. There does tend to be a lag of 12-24 hours sometimes on surge. Obviously if Ida becomes a 4 by this time tomorrow there won’t be any lag 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 yes, this is the ICON, feel free to totally disregard if you'd like. Regardless, bad trend for New Orleans over the past few runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: yes, this is the ICON, feel free to totally disregard if you'd like. Regardless, bad trend for New Orleans over the past few runs. It was real bad with Henri. I’m not sure it’s that effective with tropical systems. The ICON oddly enough across the lower 48 has tended to verify better at times with significant storm details at 72-84 and beyond than inside that range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: yes, this is the ICON, feel free to totally disregard if you'd like. Regardless, bad trend for New Orleans over the past few runs. Quite the jukes. That would melt the board down. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now