Master of Disaster Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 1 minute ago, Indystorm said: And if we do get ERC in the Gulf I assume this would expand the wind field geographically. I haven't seen much discussion of how large this storm is expected to be , And if it gets very powerful in the Gulf this will increase surge and wave action. The NHC hinted at this wind field expansion with the 5am advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Somehow, these almost feel too low… However, given how quickly Ida ramped up today, I do wonder if that also raises the chances of an ERC later on that “robs” Ida of additional intensification. These things are chaotic and hard to pin down. Certainly too unpredictable to forecast structure and size with accuracy. I mean, interaction with Western Cuba could also backfire by increasing/broadening the size of the core vortex, leading to a larger eyewall during intensification over the east-central GOM. Anyone's guess and it would just be that, a guess. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Ida’s outer bands have reached the Florida Keys 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 NOAA HH just left Tampa a short time ago... Should be near the COC in a bit over an hour. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: Ida’s outer bands have reached the Florida Keys 44 mph gust. Competing with Elsa and Fred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Ida looks like she is struggling a bit this afternoon with Cuba and SW shear. Cloud tops have warmed and the presentation is more ragged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 RE: KBYX (Key West) Radar... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 ida maximum winds have increased to 80 mph.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 NHC now explicitly forecasting a category 4 hurricane prior to landfall... Also upped the storm surge for a portion of the coast: "Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft" 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 NHC clearly doesn't think Cuba will do that much to it Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated while Ida moves over western Cuba this evening. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected when Ida moves over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Yikes!!!….. 48H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.6W 120 KT 140 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 I know everyone is (understandably) focused on New Orleans but the Houma area is one of the most populated areas of the state and is taking a direct hit. Dire situation all-around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Yikes!!!….. 48H 29/1800Z 28.6N 90.6W 120 KT 140 MPH . Rare for them to forecast that extreme so quickly from what is now a cat 1. I hope people pay attention. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Not the most surprising occurrence, but it looks like Ida's outflow has greatly expanded on the western-side, and to a lesser extent the southwest side, of the system since ~19z. Upper-level WV imagery shows this quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 NOAA HH just entered the core, unfortunately something about their wind data seems "off." FL and SFMR not correlating how they should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, jojo762 said: NOAA HH just entered the core, unfortunately something about their wind data seems "off." FL and SFMR not correlating how they should be. It has been interacting with land. Might that be a cause? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 1 minute ago, dan11295 said: It has been interacting with land. Might that be a cause? I'm guessing so... Looks like their next set of data cut off all wind and pressure data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said: Well thats why I am asking about the buildings. I want to make sure that I pick a modern construction that has the built in redundancies for the ~150 MPH winds. BTW... looks like shes coming in just a tad east of the 12Z guidance. Yeah baby... here she comes!!!! 1 minute ago, agrayson12 said: What's your definition of "a tad".... If you don't mind me asking lol! Hopefully it means... Just an itty bitty bit lmao! Take this discussion to the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 The NOAA HH aircraft missed the center on their first pass. They scraped it, but had to do some last minute course deviations. (Terrain-related or something I'm sure). Anyway, 66 knot FL wind in the SE Quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 The NHC also shows it slowing down once it gets close to LA. Based on their cones it looks like they only have it moving 60-80 miles from the coast-inland over a 12 hour period. That is going to be alot of wind and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 42 minutes ago, jburns said: Rare for them to forecast that extreme so quickly from what is now a cat 1. I hope people pay attention. Given the way it behaved today with less than ideal conditions -- I can't blame them. Max shear drops off to ~5kt tomorrow with the vector aligned with the track and plenty of OHC. Only remaining fly is how badly the formative inner core is damaged. This little double speedbump interrupted what was probably a hellacious RI episode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 *storm mode* Please read the announcement and keep the banter in the proper thread 15 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Just about to start crossing the island http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar del Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 IR appearance has degraded, but on radar the center is as clear as it's ever looked. I expect Cuba interaction will disturb it somewhat, but it should be fully recovered by tomorrow morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Recon is circling an outer band for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 8 minutes ago, Amped said: Recon is circling an outer band for some reason. Just climbed up to 23,000 feet ASL too. I wonder if they are experiencing an issue and are terminating the mission. (Yeah, I don't know what they're doing) I almost wonder if they're just going to drop high-level dropsondes for a while as Ida's core crosses over Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 They are also probably being careful due to proximity to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 15 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: IR appearance has degraded, but on radar the center is as clear as it's ever looked. I expect Cuba interaction will disturb it somewhat, but it should be fully recovered by tomorrow morning Big towers going up as we speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 NOAA HH dropped a dropsonde from around 400 millibars (24,000 feet ASL) and are now descending back to 700 millibars while circling. Killing time while the 'cane moves over the island? One of the weirder flights I've seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 NOAA HH dropped a dropsonde from around 400 millibars (24,000 feet ASL) and are now descending back to 700 millibars while circling. Killing time while the 'cane moves over the island? One of the weirder flights I've seen. The status on Tropical Tidbits says “finished” for the mission. Very confusing!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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