Major Hurricane Ida

[csnavywx]

Acting like Dean and Mitch with these wind profiles. Max warm core strength closer to the surface.

[KoalaBeer]

[Windspeed]

Will the shape of the coastline as Ida approaches cause any wobbles left or right, and any contraction in the eye  due to frictional effects?

The coastline of SE LA you see on maps is somewhat arbitrary. It's as frictionless as "land" gets.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, Taylorsweather said:

Will the shape of the coastline as Ida approaches cause any wobbles left or right, and any contraction in the eye  due to frictional effects?

It may very well bounce west a bit since that is its heading

[blueberryfaygo]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Well high tide is roughly 8am there so..

Yeah thats not good at all.. it has about 5 hours til landfall.  It will be  dead high tide

[ineedsnow]

[Random Chaos]

1 minute ago, Taylorsweather said:

Will the shape of the coastline as Ida approaches cause any wobbles left or right, and any contraction in the eye  due to frictional effects?

Frictional effects often pull hurricanes right of their extrapolated track just before landfall. Doesn’t always happen though, and that part of LA is extremely low and flat. Hoping not with Ida as that would be worse for NOLA.

[Radtechwxman]

5 minutes ago, andyhb said:

The eye continues to warm and the pressure continues to fall. It’s not leveling out yet.

Think this might achieve cat 5 just before landfall like Michael did? 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

It may very well bounce west a bit since that is its heading

Maybe I'm wrong, but didnt some of the hurricane model runs show this?

[tim123]

928 preasure. Wow

[Scott747]

This special 
advisory is issued to raise the 12-hour forecast intensity to 135 
kt, but it is possible that Ida could peak slightly above that 
before landfall occurs.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Wow 928

[WinterWolf]

She’s still growing/strengthening…most impressive. 

[Heisy]

You can see the winds picking up on that Grand Isle webcam 

[jojo762]

FL winds >130kt in the northwest quadrant … talk about rarefied air.

[OSUmetstud]

6 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Acting like Dean and Mitch with these wind profiles. Max warm core strength closer to the surface.

I think that's fairly normal in the strongest, right? The flight level winds and surface winds are close with the big max in between. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

[OSUmetstud]

It's probably more like 931mb because the extrap and dropsonde pressure are off by about 4mb. 

[hawkeye_wx]

Latest dropsonde says 929 mb now (932 mb with 30kt wind)

[Random Chaos]

132mb vortex message:

 

URNT12 KNHC 291215
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL092021
A. 29/11:56:10Z
B. 28.47 deg N 089.57 deg W
C. 700 mb 2519 m
D. 932 mb
E. 230 deg 34 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. 104 kt
I. 059 deg 12 nm 11:51:30Z
J. 159 deg 138 kt
K. 059 deg 10 nm 11:52:30Z
L. 105 kt
M. 295 deg 10 nm 12:01:00Z
N. 018 deg 133 kt
O. 298 deg 12 nm 12:02:00Z
P. 9 C / 3038 m
Q. 23 C / 3052 m
R. 3 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF305 1409A IDA    OB 11
MAX FL WIND 138 KT 059 / 10 NM 11:52:30Z

 

[North Balti Zen]

 

[BuffaloWeather]

[NavarreDon]

Philippe Papin

@pppapin

Unfortunately trends on KLIX radar do *not* suggest #Ida is leveling off. Instead the eyewall has become more symmetric w/ the west side becoming more solid. Earlier attempt at a “moat” around the eyewall also looks to have filled back in.

[BuffaloWeather]

High tide is at 1 Pm for New Orleans. Water levels rising rapidly

[EasternLI]

 

[WinterWolf]

Strengthening Hurricanes at landfall are very bad news…and one of this magnitude strengthening is just the perfect storm scenario here.  

[Master of Disaster]

Just now, tim123 said:

How high are the walls 13 feet?

Depends..the new ones are 16

[csnavywx]

1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think that's fairly normal in the strongest, right? The flight level winds and surface winds are close with the big max in between. 

At least some of them from my recollection, yeah. I recall reading some papers on those two in particular and how normal FL wind reduction to the surface wasn't always appropriate. 

[OSUmetstud]

06z ecmwf is not ideal, another adjustment to the right.  

[jojo762]

Ida is really pulling off another Hurricane Michael with intensification likely to occur all the way into landfall. Given continued remarkable pressure falls, expect one of these passes by HH will eventually yield category 5 SFMR data.