40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, STxVortex said: Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 29 AUG 2021 Time : 092020 UTC Lat : 28:11:24 N Lon : 89:11:59 W This was 35 minutes ago. At previous avg rate of drop Ida could be ~928mb, 133kt/153mph. Unless Ida has bottomed out [based on the NOAA3 mission's few minutes in the eye], which I can't believe, unlike some recent commenters. Ida will be a Cat 5 shortly. I was speculating...it wasn't a proclamation. I wouldn't have guessed that, but it seemed the pressure had leveled off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Looks like the eye is opening up more on satellite, might give her another boost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,061m (10,043ft) Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,069m (10,069ft) We'll see if it is done intensifying. That is a strong temperature differential - often a sign of ongoing intensification. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STxVortex Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Looks like the eye is opening up more on satellite, might give her another boost No prob. The important numbers are missing from my post anyway? Thought I C&P'd it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STxVortex Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, STxVortex said: No prob. The important numbers are missing from my post anyway? Thought I C&P'd it all. Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 29 AUG 2021 Time : 092020 UTC Lat : 28:11:24 N Lon : 89:11:59 W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 The eye is has cleared out quite obviously to get that classic major hurricane eye shape. This is happening at the worst possible time, plus the latest GFS run - God help NOLA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STxVortex Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.6 / 931.7mb/129.6kt 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Eye cleared itself back out on IR the last few minutesSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 The radar loop looks like the eye is moving north of northwest and is on track to make a beeline for downtown New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 CDO is becoming more circular and eye is clearing, signs of continuing intensification. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STxVortex Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 NOAA3 Mission #2 into IDA is about to enter Ida's eye again, this will be definitive. The mission was in there ~55 minutes ago, so we'll get a good rate comparison. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Appears Ida is still strengthening given the satellite presentation. This storm means business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 131 KT SFMR 145 KT flight level 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 960.7 with a 15kt wind??? Just eyeballing the planeSent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Yeahhh I think that pretty much confirms this plane is having pressure instrumentation issues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Euro and GFS seem to be struggling accounting for Ida’s intensity surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 8 minutes ago, cptcatz said: The radar loop looks like the eye is moving north of northwest and is on track to make a beeline for downtown New Orleans. Yeah, I've been watching this for my old hometown. This latest jog is looking more like a heading I fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 I think there's something messed up with the extrapolated pressure. Not just being a weenie. The dropsonde from the last pass measured 936 mb with 13 kt wind (extrap was around 945). There is no way the pressure has risen given the increased wind measured on this pass and satellite appearance to my eyes showing continued improvements. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Do I even need to say anything? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 150 knots about 200 meters high... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 It’s hard to look at this motion and see how New Orleans doesn’t take a near direct hit with at least the NE quadrant of the eye wall. Looks like Ida is going to thread the needle between Houma and NOLA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Jaguars said: It’s hard to look at this motion and see how New Orleans doesn’t take a near direct hit with at least the NE quadrant of the eye wall. Looks like Ida is going to thread the needle between Houma and NOLA. Not to mention that they will be in the most dangerous spot for tornadoes as well being in the NE quad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 150 knots about 200 meters high... Tallest bldg in New orleans is 697 feet. Just over 200 m 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 150 knots about 200 meters high...949 with 98kt surface... Jeshhhhh...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 936 14kt surface wind... Though I did notice the eye warmed from 26.6C last pass to 28.2C this pass Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 This may get to 160...gonna be close to see if we get a perfect "punch hole" eye... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Sandstorm94 said: 936 14kt surface wind Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Is that the eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 Prob like 933-934mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 29, 2021 Share Posted August 29, 2021 AF305 will be making a pass in about 15 min. Currently approaching the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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