Major Hurricane Ida

[Kborne]

 

15 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

The USAF have launched an 'emergency replacement flight' to take the place of the earlier cancelled USAF mission. Aircraft has departed San Antonio and is enroute to Ida. Either that or the original aircraft's issue was quickly resolved. Regardless, commendations are in order for whoever made that happen. Not often you see a 'second' mission take off in place of the first. 

[Radtechwxman]

I'm starting to get skeptical of this hitting 130 before landfall. Ida really running out of time. If it doesn't really bombs away in next 6-10hrs I'm thinking a low to mid cat 3 more likely. Regardless of whether it's a cat 3 or 4, surge and rain will still bring a lot of destruction along with the 110+ gusts. 

[jojo762]

3 minutes ago, Kborne said:

 

Looks like we should get a center fix in about 1.5 hours.. ~0430z.

[Crazy4Wx]

1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I'm starting to get skeptical of this hitting 130 before landfall. Ida really running out of time. If it doesn't really bombs away in next 6-10hrs I'm thinking a low to mid cat 3 more likely. Regardless of whether it's a cat 3 or 4, surge and rain will still bring a lot of destruction along with the 110+ gusts. 

Umm…have you looked at IR. It is bombing out. There is just no Aircraft measuring it right now…and won’t be for another 80 minutes. 
 

[Radtechwxman]

1 minute ago, Crazy4Wx said:

Umm…have you looked at IR. It is bombing out. There is just no Aircraft measuring it right now…and won’t be for another 80 minutes. 
 

IR presentation definitely improving but can't really say for sure it's bombing till we get aircraft in there to get accurate wind readings and new pressure info 

[Prismshine Productions]

Jeshhh, that eyewall looks nasty

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

[Kborne]

5 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Looks like we should get a center fix in about 1.5 hours.. ~0430z.

About that - current ground speed is 313 knots. 

[Crazy4Wx]

1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

IR presentation definitely improving but can't really say for sure it's bombing till we get aircraft in there to get accurate wind readings and new pressure info 

After watching canes for 20+ years you do get that feeling that this bombing out based on all available sat data. 
 

But, without dropsondes I do agree that you can’t verify. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Crazy4Wx said:

After watching canes for 20+ years you do get that feeling that this bombing out based on all available sat data. 
 

But, without dropsondes I do agree that you can’t verify. 

Yea, I have 30+ years myself, and still learn something new every year, so who knows....its def intensifying steadily, just  maybe not the insane rates that we had expected...mainly because of Cuba IMHO.

[jojo762]

KLIX measuring 30+dbz in the northern/northwestern eyewall at ~35,400ft-38,200ft.

[Santa Clause]

Steady strengthening, but thinking the crazy rapid deepening isn’t gonna happen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Steady strengthening, but thinking the crazy rapid deepening isn’t gonna happen.

Which still ends up cat 4.

[bdgwx]

Using the wind radii from the 3Z NHC advisory with VMAX = 90 kts and RMW = 10 nm the IKE has increased to 32 TJ.

[jojo762]

What recon finds from a Vmax perspective is highly dependent on what type of passes they do (so for example the initial pass could be unimpressive from a wind perspective if the go NW/SE) ... But after they've done the NE quad i'm assuming we'll have a 954mb, 105kt/120mph cat 3.

I'll also add that I think we make landfall in the upper 930s (as shown by hi-res guidance), and max winds ~130-140mph. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Which still ends up cat 4.

Which would be exactly as forecast...which means it won't matter too much if we got there steadily or quickly!

[MattPetrulli]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Which still ends up cat 4.

Which if it gets to 105 knots by 11 AM tomorrow, fits the definition of rapid intensification.

[csnavywx]

Pretty obvious strengthening ongoing atm with the storm crossing a warm eddy (as part of the Loop Current). Eye looking to try and clear out with a more classic look likely soon, given deep convection has wrapped around the center.

[kat5hurricane]

I'm no expert by any means but having tracked hurricanes for many years and being fairly adept at analyzing satellite and infrared, this has the look of a storm ready to take off. It looks far better organized than it looked even a few hours ago. Maybe I'm wrong but I'd be shocked if this doesn't take a run at  Cat 4 at some point before landfall.

[jojo762]

Just now, csnavywx said:

Pretty obvious strengthening ongoing atm with the storm crossing a warm eddy (as part of the Loop Current). Eye looking to try and clear out with a more classic look likely soon, given deep convection has wrapped around the center.

Ida is gonna look pretty mean when that DMC band currently wrapping around the south side gets to the east-side. 

[Nibor]

The eye on IR looks about to pop.

[coastal front]

Yeah I think we literally just kicked off an explosive episode of deepening. Hopefully recon will hang out there for a bit during this process. 

[stormtracker]

Last pic from IR is pretty bad.  Starting to look classic at this point.

[Heisy]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Last pic from IR is pretty bad.  Starting to look classic at this point.

Came to post the same, turning into a beast 

[Chicago Storm]

LSR of sustained 56MPH at KDSF.

[WE GOT HIM]

Weatherbird is hauling ass to get to the storm

[kat5hurricane]

Yeah, this thing is developing that classic major hurricane look. It's looking really ominous.

[OhioWX]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Last pic from IR is pretty bad.  Starting to look classic at this point.

No doubt Ida is putting on a show for recon.

[Brian D]

I posted on page 23 a map of my track for this. I think Marsh Island get the official call. We shall see tomorrow. Poor folks down there. Last year was rough, too.

[Jebman]

Not sure if this has already been posted. Mods feel free to knock it down, but just HAD to post it -

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LIX&issuedby=LIX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

.SHORT TERM...All eyes on Ida. Ida continues to strengthen through
the day and the 4pm advisory now has Ida at 105 mph with a minimum
central pressure of 976mb. Ida is forecast to still become an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane and could strengthen all
the way up to landfall which is now expected by midday/early
afternoon tomorrow. If you have not finished your preparations yet
FINISH THEM NOW! If you are under a mandatory evacuation...LEAVE
NOW! You do not want to play around with your life and it is not
worth it to stay if you have the means to leave.

Ida is moving to the northwest around a ridge centered over the
Atlantic coast around SC/NC. This has provided a very well defined
steering current leading Ida directly towards the north-central
Gulf. Ida has been gaining strength through the day and the
presentation on satellite is very ominous. A few very concerning
observations. Ida still hasn`t really rapidly intensified yet, and
the thinking is it still will and that now means that it could be
strengthening up to or just before making landfall. Even though that
hasn`t occurred it is already stronger than what the guidance was
initially expecting and it has been a slow increase. Ida is going to
continue to strengthen for at least the next 12-18 hours. There is
no dry air around, upper level outflow is quite impressive, and Ida
will move over the warmest and deepest part of the Gulf. This is all
very conducive for strengthening. What this can mean is that there
may not be time for an eye wall replacement cycle to get started
which would lead to some slight weakening but as mentioned already
it could be strengthening up to landfall.

The track has been sliding just a touch east of the forecast and
this is leading to some greater concerns with respect to surge in
some areas and rainfall potential in areas that just can not handle
heavy rain. First any more adjustments east will cause surge to
become a greater problem along the east facing shores of Louisiana.
The current track is going to bring UNSURVIVABLE surge up Barataria
and Terrebonne Bays. Much of coastal LA is just marsh so this surge
will penetrate well inland and unless you are within the Hurricane
Risk Reduction System you are putting your life in danger and do not
expect to receive any help if you are caught and cut off. This
includes both west and east of the mouth of the MS River in SELA.

Outside of those areas life threatening storm surge is expected to
occur in the tidal lakes and coastal MS. Lake Pontchartrain could
see 6 to 8 feet of surge and possibly even higher in the
northwestern sections of the lake around Tangipahoa Parish and
western St Tammany parish. Coastal MS especially west of Ocean
Springs could see up to 11ft. Locations that typically have tidal
issues in Hancock county should leave now as storm surge will be
extremely dangerous.

Winds will be dangerous to destructive through our entire CWA. The
most destructive winds will occur along the coast of Louisiana where
devastating structural damage could occur as winds are expected to
gust over 160 mph! This will severely damage to destroy most
structures that are not well built. Locations around New Orleans
could see winds that are far stronger than what was experienced last
year during Hurricane Zeta with much of the area likely seeing winds
gusts in excess of 100 mph. If there is any more of a jog east these
winds will be even higher. Winds funneling through some of the high
rises will be even stronger. Around Baton Rouge we could see wind
damage that far eclipses what was seen during Hurricane Gustav.
Winds gusts over 110 mph are possible that far inland. This will
lead to widespread tree damage, structural damage, and massive power
outages which could take weeks to restore. Across southwest MS winds
will remain very strong likely gusting over hurricane force around
Wilkinson County and gusting to near hurricane force as far east as
McComb. Northshore areas, especially along the lake could see wind
gusts over hurricane force with widespread tree damage and power
outages. Coastal MS likely to see winds gusts over 60 mph at times
which could still lead to damage and widespread power outages.

The other life threatening concern is heavy rain. This is two fold
though because of where it could fall combining that with the surge
in the lake and along the coast. We are anticipating a band of very
heavy rain that could be 15 to 20 inches and possibly higher. If
this falls over the city of New Orleans it will overwhelm the pumps
with extremely dangerous flash flooding possible. At the same time
winds could be dangerous and this would prevent people from trying
to find higher ground. Other areas of major concern is along and
north of I-12. This is the area where we have many rivers that are
quick to respond, Amite/Comite, Tickfaw, Tangipahoa, Bogue Chitto,
and across the MS border in coastal MS we have the the Hobolochittos
and Wolf. All of these rivers and a few more respond rather quickly
to heavy rain and the combine with the problem of surge into the
lake and along coastal MS. The surge will push up these rivers and
the rain will have no where to go and quickly lead to dangerous
flash flooding conditions. Combine the possibility of debris
clogging up other areas of drainage and widespread life threatening
flash flooding is possible. Please if you live in a flood prone area
highly consider leaving. If this rain falls directly over you the
drainage and rivers could be overwhelmed quickly and you could be
cut off with rising water.

[MattPetrulli]

Gotta think hourly updates begin soon with the center almost fully visible on radar