SnowGoose69 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: To clarify, I do actually agree that Ida looks the best it has all afternoon. But that does not mean that it's core has not sputtered most of the afternoon and morning -- while still gradually intensifying. Likewise we're approaching the well-advertised go-time/Dmax, so this whole "it's sputtering" argument is about to get blown to smithereens. If it does not wrap that area of dry air back in I think it goes off until it gets to an ERC so 140-150 is probably a legitimate possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 968.7 on latest pass 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If it does not wrap that area of dry air back in I think it goes off until it gets to an ERC so 140-150 is probably a legitimate possibility Interested to see what happens with that strong area of subsidence that has developed on the west-side of the CDO. Not quite sure what to make of it, and if it actually means anything to the circulation's likely RI tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 968 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Interested to see what happens with that strong area of subsidence that has developed on the west-side of the CDO. Not quite sure what to make of it, and if it actually means anything to the circulation's likely RI tonight. It'll be 2 hours or so til we know but it seems to me it might just push it out or wrap it down around the south side far from the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Will have to see what the dropsonde shows, but it looks like a 2 millibar drop in the last 70 minutes. The NOAA aircraft's pressure estimates are running a few millibars lower than the dropsonde's measurements (fairly normal). I'd expect around 971 millibars from the dropsonde based on the bias correction. EDIT: Looks like about 969.5 - 970 millibars on the dropsonde with the wind correction. About a 3 to 3.5 millibar drop in 70 minutes. Nice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Once again it appears its ready to take off and its kicking that area of dry air out to the west but it could ultimately wrap it back in again in 2-3 hours so who knows Going to go out on a limb and say Ida fights pockets of dry air that prevent it from achieving Cat 4 or 5 status. It's running out of time before it begins interacting with the continental airmass. I'm very interested to see if any buoys get close to the center tonight and see what the wave height and winds are. Would give us a clue as to the potential storm surge. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: It'll be 2 hours or so til we know but it seems to me it might just push it out or wrap it down around the south side far from the center on the last frame it looks like its getting pushed out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Going to go out on a limb and say Ida fights pockets of dry air that prevent it from achieving Cat 4 or 5 status. It's running out of time before it begins interacting with the continental airmass. I'm very interested to see if any buoys get close to the center tonight and see what the wave height and winds are. Would give us a clue as to the potential storm surge. Be careful assuming ingest of drier continental air upon approach....thre is a mositure feed from central America. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Be careful assuming ingest of drier continental air upon approach....thre is a mositure feed from central America. This storm is a late developer and not really big enough. Gulf Storms that do that often time were monsters before entering the Gulf and are more likely to be able to pull the dry air in from the monstrous circulation area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbird12 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Dropsonde at the center measured 971 mb with 14 kt of wind, so center is probably ~970 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, David Reimer said: Will have to see what the dropsonde shows, but it looks like a 2 millibar drop in the last 70 minutes. The NOAA aircraft's pressure estimates are running a few millibars lower than the dropsonde's measurements (fairly normal). Roughly a similar intensification rate to the previous six hours as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This storm is a late developer and not really big enough. Gulf Storms that do that often time were monsters before entering the Gulf and are more likely to be able to pull the dry air in from the monstrous circulation area. Good to know wrt antecedent size or the cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Basing off the NOAA HH data sure looks like Ida is closer to a 90mph storm right now than a 105mph storm. 1 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This storm is a late developer and not really big enough. Gulf Storms that do that often time were monsters before entering the Gulf and are more likely to be able to pull the dry air in from the monstrous circulation area. I got burned expecting that with Michael...its generally the case, but not always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Big blow up in the western eyewall last half hour along with new towers in NW and N eyewall. Definitely starting to really get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: Big blow up in the western eyewall last half hour along with new towers in NW and N eyewall. Definitely starting to really get going. Was just about to post this, but as an amateur was hesitant. Last few frames of IR look ominous to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Going to go out on a limb and say Ida fights pockets of dry air that prevent it from achieving Cat 4 or 5 status. It's running out of time before it begins interacting with the continental airmass. I'm very interested to see if any buoys get close to the center tonight and see what the wave height and winds are. Would give us a clue as to the potential storm surge. Say what?! Looking at Visible.. there is a deep SE flow for most of the SE at the surface. Including LA, MS, TX. Any influx of continental airmass would be coming from the SW of the Storm through Mexico up through the BOC and that's not really happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 This system reminds me of a post ERC storm in terms of sat presentation...just an anecdotal ob.. .I wonder if some funky internal stuff went on due to friction of land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 18z HWRF and HMON are stronger and a tick east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 eye back open pressure down to 970 F. Eye Character: Open in the southG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Man it sure looks like Ida is gonna head more towards Southeast Louisiana than Central....and they will definitely be in the right-front quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 A second plane has arrived and is headed into the storm from the nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: eye back open pressure down to 970 F. Eye Character: Open in the southG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) Substantially smaller than the first pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 The open eye is misleading. There's a robust circular CDO on IR which is probably more important than the exact eye shape, which changes every 10 minutes. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 AF plane looks like it is having issues and returning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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