Prismshine Productions Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092021 IDA 08/28/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 14.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 88.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.58 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 4.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.33 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.8 %area of TPW SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 52% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 5.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 12.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 52.3% 56.1% 45.6% 39.1% 29.9% 20.6% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 26.0% 42.2% 32.2% 17.4% 8.8% 12.1% 9.3% 1.2% Bayesian: 26.0% 55.7% 25.6% 53.5% 15.3% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 34.8% 51.4% 34.4% 36.7% 18.0% 12.8% 7.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 46.0% 21.0% 19.0% 15.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt increase is a 5...Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 some folks are posting that traffic is backed up on I-10 from NOLA to freaking Mobile, AL. Not great.That tunnel in Mobile backs up terribly before the bay. It’s awful that such a vital road is 2 lanes each way for a significant portion and then has a complete choke of that caliber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 9 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: No 2 storms are ever the same and that's the beauty of wx/forecasting. Ultimately the next 12 to 18 hours and any RI will prob be what determines if this goes down as one of the greats or overhyped. I have an issue with the term "overhyped"...because it can't be hype if the worst is a legit possibility. If it doesn't happen, not anybody's fault for over-selling! 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I have an issue with the term "overhyped"...because it can't be hype if the worst is a legit possibility. If it doesn't happen, not anybody fault for over-selling! The rapid intensification could be overhyped if it doesnt materialize (even though it likely will). From a weather perspective, it could be overhyped. From a life/property perspective you have a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 recon on the way! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Current Mesoscale Sector visible loop (click URL for latest)https://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Looks like 12z Euro shifted Ida a tick or two East fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 It's been a long time since I've seen a sat loop of a strengthening Hurricane with such a low shear environment as Ida. There's nothing remotely close to it to impede intensification 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Day-Cloud Phase showing an eye that is trying to clear out. Curious to see what happens in the next 2-4 hrs. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Day-Cloud Phase showing an eye that is trying to clear out. Curious to see what happens in the next 2-4 hrs. It looks a thousand times better right now than it did a few hours ago. I think people just aren't impressed because they've been expecting RI this entire time. With almost nothing to impede development this has a lot of time to gradually gain strength until landfall tomorrow evening 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Eye is substantially smaller than earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Day-Cloud Phase showing an eye that is trying to clear out. Curious to see what happens in the next 2-4 hrs. That’s a fairly classic look, no? Again my eye is very untrained/weenie but it looks rather scary at the moment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Advanced Dvorak Technique doesn't always best describe it... On a serious note, that's a nice demonstration of the NW of track deviation that has been observed of late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Advanced Dvorak Technique doesn't always best describe it... On a serious note, that's a nice demonstration of the NW of track deviation that has been observed of late. I thought people were saying it was wobbling NE of track? I literally don’t know what to think lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Ida looks really good right now. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it at cat 3 next advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: That’s a fairly classic look, no? Again my eye is very untrained/weenie but it looks rather scary at the moment. It is. Just basically has that final hurdle to clear the eye and then all systems go. I wasn't expecting the storm to really go bonkers till tonight. Still much within the envelope. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Kleimax said: Ida looks really good right now. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it at cat 3 next advisory They'll probably call it 110 or 115 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: I thought people were saying it was wobbling NE of track? I literally don’t know what to think lol. That's what it's showing. The forecast interpolation is SW of the actual position, therefore its intensity estimation is crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It is. Just basically has that final hurdle to clear the eye and then all systems go. I wasn't expecting the storm to really go bonkers till tonight. Still much within the envelope. Seeing some symmetry in convective bursts as well, at least relative to this morning. Tonight will be very interesting as it traverses the warmest part of the loop current at Dmax 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 It is. Just basically has that final hurdle to clear the eye and then all systems go. I wasn't expecting the storm to really go bonkers till tonight. Still much within the envelope. Exactly. Instability increases at night with cooler temps aloft, which should allow this thing to really continue ramping up at night over the Loop. I really wouldn’t be shocked if we saw this thing roll in at 150+ the way it’s strengthening during the day time 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 If this already is a Cat 3, I would be concerned about how big this could get entering the warm eddy. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 105mph 976mb new advisory. They said RI underway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: 105mph 976mb new advisory. They said RI underway If we're 6 mph less than a Cat 3, I would've fudged the numbers a bit to get people to evacuate. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 28, 2021 Author Share Posted August 28, 2021 Recon is descending into the storm now, looking like they will do a NE to SW pass first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 Just now, TriPol said: If we're 6 mph less than a Cat 3, I would've fudged the numbers a bit to get people to evacuate. Then you run the risk of recon getting in their and proving you very wrong. A special update can go out if needed. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 This will be 140mph+ by morning, if not sooner... 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: If we're 6 mph less than a Cat 3, I would've fudged the numbers a bit to get people to evacuate. Not how this works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: 105mph 976mb new advisory. They said RI underway Some pretty dark reds about to wrap around the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: This will be 140mph+ by morning, if not sooner... What do you think about peak intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted August 28, 2021 Share Posted August 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: If we're 6 mph less than a Cat 3, I would've fudged the numbers a bit to get people to evacuate. I understand the sentiment but it's important to be accurate with your reporting. Unfortunately we live in a country where science is already not trusted by many, fudging numbers to reach the next cat does not help that cause any. I am sure the people who are going to get out are already doing so. 6mph isn't going to change many minds. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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