Major Hurricane Ida

[JC-CT]

  On 8/27/2021 at 5:48 PM, NorthHillsWx said:

The deepening depicted on these models in the 12 hours before landfall is absolutely astonishing 

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Yeah, I mean there's virtually no shear and continued high ssts. She looks great as is it, in less than perfect conditions.

[WhiteoutWX]

  On 8/27/2021 at 5:36 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Unpopular Opinion: The New Orleans evacuation recommendation is a bit premature, IMO. We've seen in past events, such as Rita in 2005, where evacuation orders were made prematurely and then the track shifted. The result was more people dying due to the evacuation process than the storm itself. It would have been better to wait for Ida to clear Cuba and see if that had any affect to the track, timing, or intensity of the forecast. Evacuation calls certainly are not easy, and COVID makes things more challenging, but I'm concerned this is going to be a bad call.

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I don’t remember how models did with Rita but they’ve been tightly clustered on a landfall location with this one the last day or so. I think track confidence is fairly high at this point. Margin for error is still probably big enough for New Orleans to miss out on the worst of it, but still seems prudent in this case to give people more time to evacuate than wait for a last second scramble when it’s too late, especially given the potential for a major upon landfall.

[KPITSnow]

  On 8/27/2021 at 5:36 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Unpopular Opinion: The New Orleans evacuation recommendation is a bit premature, IMO. We've seen in past events, such as Rita in 2005, where evacuation orders were made prematurely and then the track shifted. The result was more people dying due to the evacuation process than the storm itself. It would have been better to wait for Ida to clear Cuba and see if that had any affect to the track, timing, or intensity of the forecast. Evacuation calls certainly are not easy, and COVID makes things more challenging, but I'm concerned this is going to be a bad call.

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It’s going to be there in two days. It’s now or too late.

 

It’s better to be safe to avoid a tragedy.

[OSUmetstud]

  On 8/27/2021 at 5:50 PM, WhiteoutWX said:

I don’t remember how models did with Rita but they’ve been tightly clustered on a landfall location with this one the last day or so. I think track confidence is fairly high at this point. Margin for error is still probably big enough for New Orleans to miss out on the worst of it, but still seems prudent in this case to give people more time to evacuate than wait for a last second scramble when it’s too late, especially given the potential for a major upon landfall.

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The probably with Rita if I remember correctly is how massive the stated evacuation was and some bad communication where far too many people from Houston on high ground evacuated who shouldn't have. 

[the ghost of OT]

  On 8/27/2021 at 5:45 PM, hawkeye_wx said:

12z HWRF

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Andrew did a number on that area and this is 10-15 mb stronger. I think people forget how bad it was in LA

[NorthArlington101]

12z EURO brings the storm all the way down to 938mb at one point, still hasn't landfalled yet.

[SnowenOutThere]

  On 8/27/2021 at 6:14 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

12z EURO brings the storm all the way down to 938mb at one point, still hasn't landfalled yet.

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Holy, storm surge is going to wipe New Orleans off the map

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 8/27/2021 at 6:19 PM, SnowenOutThere said:

Holy, storm surge is going to wipe New Orleans off the map

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Nah, too far west on that run

[TheDreamTraveler]

  On 8/27/2021 at 5:36 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Unpopular Opinion: The New Orleans evacuation recommendation is a bit premature, IMO. We've seen in past events, such as Rita in 2005, where evacuation orders were made prematurely and then the track shifted. The result was more people dying due to the evacuation process than the storm itself. It would have been better to wait for Ida to clear Cuba and see if that had any affect to the track, timing, or intensity of the forecast. Evacuation calls certainly are not easy, and COVID makes things more challenging, but I'm concerned this is going to be a bad call.

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Hurricane track accuracy has improved a ton since 2005. It might not seem like it but it's gotten much more accurate in the past 16 years. Especially for a storm 3 days out I think we have a good idea where it's heading.

[andyhb]

Note the center's westward jog as it crosses Cuba.

[WE GOT HIM]

  On 8/27/2021 at 6:23 PM, andyhb said:

Note the center's westward jog as it crosses Cuba.

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Yeah it has gone WNW for a good bit now. Also going over the island seems to have warmed some of the cloud tops

[Castaway]

It seems the current track has the center going between San Juan y Martínez (which has a elevation of 70ft)

And Guane which has an elevation around 82ft. 

 

If it was tracking more to the East, maybe the terrain there would of had a little more of an effect (200-300ft). Even then, it wouldn’t be that much imo.

 

Edit: Looking at the last 2 frames it looks like it took a good step west.  
 

might go over Sandino area. Which has an elevation around 33ft.

 

 

[Hotair]

High tide in New Orleans is approximately 1:40 pm on Monday Aug 30. Anyone have a good guess at approximate landfall time for Ida ?

[SnowenOutThere]

Looks like the eyewall is almost fully wrapped and an eye is trying to form? Might just be over-analyzing considering its Friday and nothing is happening in class but I dunno looks like an eye.

[Indystorm]

I think I read somewhere that the criterion for RI is an increase in wind speed of 35 mph in a 24 hour period or a 20 mb drop in 24 hours.  This storm will rapidly intensify.

[JC-CT]

  On 8/27/2021 at 6:37 PM, Castaway said:

It seems the current track has the center going between San Juan y Martínez (which has a elevation of 70ft)

And Guane which has an elevation around 82ft. 

 

If it was tracking more to the East, maybe the terrain there would of had a little more of an effect (200-300ft). Even then, it wouldn’t be that much imo.

 

Edit: Looking at the last 2 frames it looks like it took a good step west.  
 

might go over Sandino area. Which has an elevation around 33ft.

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Eh, whatever downtown valley you are using for those elevations is not representative of the elevation of those surrounding areas.

[andyhb]

 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  61% is  12.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  82% is   7.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  76% is  11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  70% is  17.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  53% is  22.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  73% is  15.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  47% is  10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  31% is   5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

SHIPS RI probs are going berserk now, as expected.

[JakkelWx]

  On 8/27/2021 at 6:46 PM, SnowenOutThere said:

Looks like the eyewall is almost fully wrapped and an eye is trying to form? Might just be over-analyzing considering its Friday and nothing is happening in class but I dunno looks like an eye.

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Not an eye. The actual center is still squarely over the island, not just off of the island.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 8/27/2021 at 5:54 PM, KPITSnow said:

It’s going to be there in two days. It’s now or too late.

 

It’s better to be safe to avoid a tragedy.

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I was gonna say...unlike some of the other long-trackers...not like they have a ton of time to wait!

[MattPetrulli]

Spaghettis really trending up at 18z

[NorthArlington101]

  On 8/27/2021 at 6:53 PM, Indystorm said:

I think I read somewhere that the criterion for RI is an increase in wind speed of 35 mph in a 24 hour period or a 20 mb drop in 24 hours.  This storm will rapidly intensify.

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Already has, in fact. The intensification of the storm into a Cat 1 today from a TD yesterday more than qualifies as RI. Question is really how many times this storm pulls it off.

[tiger_deF]

  On 8/27/2021 at 6:59 PM, JakkelWx said:

 

Not an eye. The actual center is still squarely over the island, not just off of the island.

 

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Would this disrupt the core? 

[Nibor]

  On 8/27/2021 at 6:56 PM, JC-CT said:

Eh, whatever downtown valley you are using for those elevations is not representative of the elevation of those surrounding areas.

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The highest mountains in western Cuba are around 2,200 feet in elevation. Most are under 2000 feet.

https://en-us.topographic-map.com/maps/tlk4/Cuba/

[JC-CT]

  On 8/27/2021 at 7:08 PM, Nibor said:

The highest mountains in western Cuba are around 2,200 feet in elevation. Most are under 2000 feet.

https://en-us.topographic-map.com/maps/tlk4/Cuba/

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Right

[Windspeed]

  On 8/27/2021 at 7:04 PM, tiger_deF said:

Would this disrupt the core? 

Isla de la Juventud / Isle of Youth is very low elevation. It is also surrounded by the warmest SSTs in the Atlantic Basin. It might slow intensification but the core bands will be able to pull sufficient evaporation that it should avoid disruption. The western region of Cuba would be more of a deterrent to intensification or at least halt it until it clears it and moves into the SE GOM. There could be some disruption over Western Cuba.

[hoosierwx]

So was watching the weather last night and they showed the NHC forecast cone with intensities showing a cat 2 at landfall. Why do they put that out there 5 days in advance with intensity forecasts being what they are?

[jojo762]

  On 8/27/2021 at 6:58 PM, andyhb said:

 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  61% is  12.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  82% is   7.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  76% is  11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  70% is  17.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  53% is  22.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  73% is  15.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  47% is  10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  31% is   5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

SHIPS RI probs are going berserk now, as expected.

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Somehow, these almost feel too low… However, given how quickly Ida ramped up today, I do wonder if that also raises the chances of an ERC later on that “robs” Ida of additional intensification. 

[AChilders]

  On 8/27/2021 at 7:24 PM, jojo762 said:

Somehow, these almost feel too low… However, given how quickly Ida ramped up today, I do wonder if that also raises the chances of an ERC later on that “robs” Ida of additional intensification. 

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It appears that was what the Euro was hinting, down to 939, back up to over 950 down again into the 940s before landfall

[WxWatcher007]

  On 8/27/2021 at 6:53 PM, Indystorm said:

I think I read somewhere that the criterion for RI is an increase in wind speed of 35 mph in a 24 hour period or a 20 mb drop in 24 hours.  This storm will rapidly intensify.

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I think it’s just the wind, not the pressure drop.

  On 8/27/2021 at 6:58 PM, andyhb said:

 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  61% is  12.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  82% is   7.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  76% is  11.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  70% is  17.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  53% is  22.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  73% is  15.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  47% is  10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  31% is   5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)

SHIPS RI probs are going berserk now, as expected.

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That’s about as high as you’ll ever see. Very impressive.

[Indystorm]

And if we do get ERC in the Gulf I assume this would expand the wind field geographically.  I haven't seen much discussion of how large this storm is expected to be ,  And if it gets very powerful in the Gulf this will increase surge and wave action.