Floydbuster Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Really cranking now... convection rapidly wrapping upshear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Thinking Ida is in the midst of an RI episode right now. Very intense convective burst overhead which corresponds to an intense curved inner band (formative eyewall?) on recon data. We'll have a hurricane before the sun sets tonight. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 46 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Short-term land disruption is generally more effective in limiting downstream intensification once an inner core has become established. This is due to wind curve flattening or spreading. This larger windfield becomes less concentrated near the core (because of frictional spin-down and interruption of latent heat flux) and also generally becomes pretty inertially stable -- making it more difficult for wind maxima to contract and spin back up. Irma and Isidore are good examples of this. It may not work very well in this case due to the fact that the inner core is still in a formative stage and the TS-force wind field is still pretty small. Ida is moving at quite the clip to be fair. It probably only spends 3-4 hours over Cuba. Looks to miss Isla de Juventud to the east too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 1 hour ago, csnavywx said: It would be, but Katrina was not a worst-case scenario for NOLA, believe it or not. It escaped the worst of the wind damage and a further west track would have funneled surge up the mouth of the Mississippi for a longer duration. In a way this is even worse. Dauphin Island Alabama is the most storm surge prone location in the country. Even a Cat 1 surges the water on the west end to a level they have to close the only access road for days. A Cat 4 would cut that island in half... Again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Detailed surge risk map of New Orleans. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 The synoptic pattern to me suggests that stronger=west. I think a stronger Ida ends up diabatically building that ridge to the northwest of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emblaze2 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Anvils to the southwest of Ida are still blowing straight toward the storm. I wonder if outflow will overcome that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The synoptic pattern to me suggests that stronger=west. I think a stronger Ida ends up diabatically building that ridge to the northwest of it. I hope youre right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The synoptic pattern to me suggests that stronger=west. I think a stronger Ida ends up diabatically building that ridge to the northwest of it. The diabatic pump is real, however I think *at the moment* it's more about the differential steering flow (versus a weaker/shallower and more tilted Ida that some ensembles and deterministic runs had forecast). This constant slight deviation to the right of track adds up over time -- at least until the shear vector weakens and shifts direction late tonight and tomorrow morning. The effect might cancel out -- but we could really do with fewer corrections to the east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 It already appears to be wobbling back to the west on sat and radar. The eastward jog might have just been a bluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Ida high-end cat 1 and on the precipice of Cat 2 strength per latest recon.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Recon confirms a hurricane, eyewall is closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 987 mb on the new advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Ida high-end cat 1 and on the precipice of Cat 2 strength per latest recon.. I saw FL winds of 76 knots, but I'm a little weary of the SFMR data given the closer proximity to Cuba's shoreline. That being said, if it isn't there now - it probably will be sooner than later. It's a hurricane regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Wonder if Cuba will do anything to this storm I think the best we can hope for is a pause in strengthing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, csnavywx said: The diabatic pump is real, however I think *at the moment* it's more about the differential steering flow (versus a weaker/shallower and more tilted Ida that some ensembles and deterministic runs had forecast). This constant slight deviation to the right of track adds up over time -- at least until the shear vector weakens and shifts direction late tonight and tomorrow morning. The effect might cancel out -- but we could really do with fewer corrections to the east. Right, I guess I wasn't sure how much the shorter term jogs to the right would affect the final landfall location, given that the forcing latter should be left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Ida is now a hurricane officially. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Wonder if Cuba will do anything to this storm I think the best we can hope for is a pause in strengthing. Just enough to ruin the 60mb pressure drop Ida was trying to pull off today and cut it down to a modest 20-30mb pressure drop. No Cat3 until tomorrow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, Amped said: Just enough to ruin the 60mb pressure drop Ida was trying to pull off today and cut it down to a modest 20-30mb pressure drop. No Cat3 until tomorrow. Ida is intensifying at an incredible rate going into landfall 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 Unpopular Opinion: The New Orleans evacuation recommendation is a bit premature, IMO. We've seen in past events, such as Rita in 2005, where evacuation orders were made prematurely and then the track shifted. The result was more people dying due to the evacuation process than the storm itself. It would have been better to wait for Ida to clear Cuba and see if that had any affect to the track, timing, or intensity of the forecast. Evacuation calls certainly are not easy, and COVID makes things more challenging, but I'm concerned this is going to be a bad call. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Ida is intensifying at an incredible rate going into landfall The HWRF was too low with intensity for the first time this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Unpopular Opinion: The New Orleans evacuation recommendation is a bit premature, IMO. We've seen in past events, such as Rita in 2005, where evacuation orders were made prematurely and then the track shifted. The result was more people dying due to the evacuation process than the storm itself. It would have been better to wait for Ida to clear Cuba and see if that had any affect to the track, timing, or intensity of the forecast. Evacuation calls certainly are not easy, and COVID makes things more challenging, but I'm concerned this is going to be a bad call. I completely disagree. This storm has had little lead time. Also, due to covid, finding places to evacuate to or convincing people to leave will be that much more challenging than normal. TS force winds sill arrive by Sunday morning, giving the rest of today and tomorrow all they have to evacuate. This is going to be a powerful, scary storm and leaving this one to chance is not wise. Very happy to see the evacuations popping up today. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 12z HWRF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z HWRF The deepening depicted on these models in the 12 hours before landfall is absolutely astonishing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Unpopular Opinion: The New Orleans evacuation recommendation is a bit premature, IMO. We've seen in past events, such as Rita in 2005, where evacuation orders were made prematurely and then the track shifted. The result was more people dying due to the evacuation process than the storm itself. It would have been better to wait for Ida to clear Cuba and see if that had any affect to the track, timing, or intensity of the forecast. Evacuation calls certainly are not easy, and COVID makes things more challenging, but I'm concerned this is going to be a bad call. 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I completely disagree. This storm has had little lead time. Also, due to covid, finding places to evacuate to or convincing people to leave will be that much more challenging than normal. TS force winds sill arrive by Sunday morning, giving the rest of today and tomorrow all they have to evacuate. This is going to be a powerful, scary storm and leaving this one to chance is not wise. Very happy to see the evacuations popping up today. We have a banter thread for these insightful discussions 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted August 27, 2021 Share Posted August 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z HWRF Hypothetically would a landfall on that position still bring considerable storm surge to New Orleans, or is this far enough West to avoid it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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