Major Hurricane Ida

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, blueberryfaygo said:

I am gonna chase.  Brining my kids with me.. Whats the best hotel to stay at that would offer the safest environment?  We can handle blown out windows.. but I definitely don't want to get caught up in any building collapses.

One in Kansas.

[It's Always Sunny]

3 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

With the center being so far north in the Caribbean and all the convection to the north and east of the center, it may very well brush you in Tampa Bay. GFS shows this, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it get even closer. 

Transient outer rainbands probably will but Ida will be well west of TPA, even if it does tick more east.

[WhiteoutWX]

15 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said:

Satellite imagery showing convection blossoming nicely downshear (east side of storm) but still some westerly shear imposing on Ida, with even some pesky dry air lingering to the west associated with the eroding TUTT. DMAX should overcome most of this but I'm interested to see how shear impacts all this overnight as it becomes more southerly.

I would think with a developing system this type of lopsided appearance would bias the storm track slightly to the east as convection continually fires on the eastern semicircle and pulls the low level center that direction. 

[It's Always Sunny]

1 minute ago, WhiteoutWX said:

I would think with a developing system this type of lopsided appearance would bias the storm track slightly to the east as convection continually fires on the eastern semicircle and pulls the low level center that direction. 

Yeah totally agree.

[NavarreDon]

Let’s start using the storm banter thread for these cute quips. 

Folks, you got a mod here telling you about the banter thread. Heed his subtle warning and please take the nonsense to the banter thread. Let’s reserve this thread for serious Ida discussion.


.

[nwohweather]

Should just name this storm Hurricane Lebron with the amount of hype it’s getting. The models and setup are very alarming but still I cannot recall the alarm bells being rang quite like this while still in the TD/low TS stage

[It's Always Sunny]

2 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Should just name this storm Hurricane Lebron with the amount of hype it’s getting. The models and setup are very alarming but still I cannot recall the alarm bells being rang quite like this while still in the TD/low TS stage

Idk if "hype" is the right word but I totally get what you mean; some news outlets began covering this storm even before it was a TD. Public awareness was communicated very early. Not a bad thing but I don't recall a storm garnering this much attention so early in development.

[jburns]

4 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Should just name this storm Hurricane Lebron with the amount of hype it’s getting. The models and setup are very alarming but still I cannot recall the alarm bells being rang quite like this while still in the TD/low TS stage

We skipped over the usual one full week of a slowly developing storm wandering around the islands.  Landfall is expected within three days in a sensitive area so they are cranking up the media quickly.  Also there seems to be quite good agreement that this storm is definitely going to landfall in along the mid gulf coast.

[WxWatcher007]

This system may very well fall short of expectations and I hope it does, but this is about as blaring a signal as you will ever see for a major hurricane landfall, in a place that was battered by multiple hurricane landfalls last year. 

Between that and there being very little time to prepare, you gotta saturate all lines of communication to get people to pay attention.

[Gravity Wave]

People are understandably focused on the potential landfall impacts but the deepening trough in the East being forecast for midweek could cause some major flooding problems in areas that got hit hard by rains from Fred and Henri.

 

[OKwx_2001]

Pretty ominous wording from the NHC disco

"It is also
worth noting that even though the global models are not particularly
accurate in predicting tropical cyclone winds, the GFS and ECMWF
show the minimum pressure falling more than 35 mb from the current
conditions.  Based on all of this information, there is
higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will be
approaching the Gulf coast late in the weekend."

[Windspeed]

This system may very well fall short of expectations and I hope it does, but this is about as blaring a signal as you will ever see for a major hurricane landfall, in a place that was battered by multiple hurricane landfalls last year. 
Between that and there being very little time to prepare, you gotta saturate all lines of communication to get people to pay attention.

You will rarely get a better (or worse in perspective) synoptic setup like this for a NW moving major hurricane in the Gulf. The hype is warranted. The hope is hitting rural swamps. Hype away and hope for the best.

[hlcater]

Convective bursts ongoing overtop the center currently.

 

Actually, they may be slightly offset to the northeast.

[jdj5211]

I know it’s the NAM but the 0z run is west with the hurricane heading for a Texas landfall….interesting to see if upcoming 0z GFS run heads in that direction as well….

[Windspeed]

I know it’s the NAM but the 0z run is west with the hurricane heading for a Texas landfall….interesting to see if upcoming 0z GFS run heads in that direction as well….

Then for God's sake, why post it? Just, why? For all the reasons x10000000, why post the bloody damn NAM, take it seriously and comment about it? Why do people continue to do this?

[WhiteoutWX]

Biggest limiting factor for a high end cane right now is mainly the time over the gulf. Most models are only showing about a 36 hour window now between exiting Cuba and landfall in Louisiana. The more eastern solution has also led to a faster solution.

[jojo762]

Just now, hlcater said:

Convective bursts ongoing overtop the center currently.

Was just about to post about this... But the overall structure of the system has ramped up the last few hours. In addition to what you stated, Ida is starting to take on the classic "shrimp" look, albeit still kind of dry and disorganized look. The outflow is really starting to crank too in all/most quadrants. 

This isn't exactly a bold take, but seems like Ida has a real shot at cat 1 status prior to Cuba if this steady structural re-organizing continues throughout the night and into tomorrow.

[jdj5211]

I give the NAM an occasional win every now and then and data is data

[hlcater]

5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

 

Then for God's sake, why post it? Just, why? For all the reasons x10000000, why post the bloody damn NAM, take it seriously and comment about it? Why do people continue to do this?

 

You clearly aren't very familiar with what board you're on .

[jojo762]

Just now, jdj5211 said:

I give the NAM an occasional win every now and then and data is data

Data is not data when it comes to the NAM and tropical systems. It's a fact everyone has to learn when they want to track AO TCs.

[Windspeed]

You clearly aren't very familiar with what board you're on .

Oh I am, I just will never understand. I can get people who simply do not know better. But to basically disclaimer it and then post? Grrr...

[jdj5211]

That’s why it was disclaimed. It’s a simple post…you can choose to ignore and move on. We have people talking about absolute unrelated nonsense on here….at least it was related to the storm.

[Windspeed]

That’s why it was disclaimed. It’s a simple post…you can choose to ignore and move on. We have people talking about absolute unrelated nonsense on here….at least it was related to the storm.

No, it is 100% misleading and unwarranted if you understand that model's purpose and use. Yet you still posted it. This is on you. Period.

[Windspeed]

STOP POSTING THE NAM.

kthx.

[MattPetrulli]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

STOP POSTING THE NAM.

kthanks.

I was unfortunately subject to NAM play by play in the Henri forum last week that will not be happening again I hope.

[jburns]

33 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

 

Then for God's sake, why post it? Just, why? For all the reasons x10000000, why post the bloody damn NAM, take it seriously and comment about it? Why do people continue to do this?

 

 

29 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

32 minutes ago, hlcater said:

You clearly aren't very familiar with what board you're on .

Oh I am, I just will never understand. I can get people who simply do not know better. But to basically disclaimer it and then post? Grrr...

 

26 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

28 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

That’s why it was disclaimed. It’s a simple post…you can choose to ignore and move on. We have people talking about absolute unrelated nonsense on here….at least it was related to the storm.

No, it is 100% misleading and unwarranted if you understand that model's purpose and use. Yet you still posted it. This is on you. Period.

 

25 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

STOP POSTING THE NAM.

kthx.

Lighten up Francis.

[WxWatcher007]

Guidance has been consistent, that’s for sure. GFS is a touch slower verbatim with a 951mb hurricane just before a Louisiana landfall Sunday afternoon.

[Windspeed]

Lighten up Francis.

I usually am lit. But mine wrath for the NAM all these years was just too much to contain. Everyone have a good night. I'll post more thoughts tomorrow when time allows. Peace.

[jojo762]

If you believe what the GFS is selling, there sure is not going to be much -- if any -- shear to speak of on Sunday to impede Ida from intensifying right up to landfall... Not great.

[Floydbuster]

Here's my video on Ida tonight for anyone interested

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5lMmPctbbI