Major Hurricane Ida

[turtlehurricane]

Seems like the track has shifted east with every model run. I'm starting to wonder if it might go due north into Florida. Probably not, but kind've looks like that on satellite.  

Anyone here have any theories why the track keeps shifting east as this comes into focus?

[Windspeed]

Zeta's eye went right over New Orleans last year after making landfall with winds of 115 mph. Seemed like New Orleans was barely affected by Zeta though. Why were the effects minimal in Zeta but expected to be catastrophic with this?

I'd imagine the direction of approach is worse for surge and flooding. But it's still not a scenario in stone. Obviously intensity, size, forward motion / speed, fetch while over the central GOM. We can go on....

[CheeselandSkies]

7 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Zeta's eye went right over New Orleans last year after making landfall with winds of 115 mph. Seemed like New Orleans was barely affected by Zeta though. Why were the effects minimal in Zeta but expected to be catastrophic with this?

All the surge with Zeta was over sparsely populated Terrebonne Parish, it moved through quickly with damaging winds on the front eyewall but little on the back side, as it had already begun to open up (halfacane).

[AChilders]

10 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Zeta's eye went right over New Orleans last year after making landfall with winds of 115 mph. Seemed like New Orleans was barely affected by Zeta though. Why were the effects minimal in Zeta but expected to be catastrophic with this?

Zetas forward speed lessened the effects. 

[Windspeed]

Seems like the track has shifted east with every model run. I'm starting to wonder if it might go due north into Florida. Probably not, but kind've looks like that on satellite.  
Anyone here have any theories why the track keeps shifting east as this comes into focus?

PV / upper trough that brought you storms last night is the culprit. 500-300 hPa level weakness in the ridge north of the TC. A more stacked and strong system will feel the poleward mid-to-upper flow versus a weaker system until 500 dm heights rebuild off the SECONUS and diabetic heating from Ida fills/squashes the PV. A gradual bend back NW is probable into landfall as the potential hurricane traverses the central GOM.

[Windspeed]

Per ATCF best track, TD9 has now become Ida.

AL, 09, 2021082618, BEST, 0, 177N, 794W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 40, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, M,

An excellent example of why ATCF should not be used over an official advisory. Though Best Track had TD9 as a TS, recon was not convincing enough for the NHC. Therefore, they did not upgrade the depression for the 5PM EDT advisory package.

[NavarreDon]

An excellent example of why ATCF should not be used over an official advisory. Though Best Track had a TD9 as a TS, recon was not convincing enough for the NHC. Therefore, they did not upgrade the depression for the 5PM EDT advisory package.

The FD did say recon hadn’t been thru the east side. This leaves the door open for a special update if they find what they need, imo.


.

[SnowenOutThere]

There is no way this thing does not plow right into Cuba. 

[Windspeed]

The FD did say recon hadn’t been thru the east side. This leaves the door open for a special update if they find what they need, imo.


.

Yes, it's very possible recon samples wind data for a tropical storm northeast of the low level circulation. We'll see..

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I still a small exposed swirl SW of where the likely center is.  No storms, it will die, but 9L is not super organized quite yet,

[nycwinter]

19 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

PV / upper trough that brought you storms last night is the culprit. 500-300 hPa level weakness in the ridge north of the TC. A more stacked and strong system will feel the poleward mid-to-upper flow versus a weaker system until 500 dm heights rebuild off the SECONUS and diabetic heating from Ida fills/squashes the PV. A gradual bend back NW is probable into landfall as the potential hurricane traverses the central GOM.

what does diabetic heating mean or did you mispell that word?

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

what does diabetic heating mean or did you mispell that word?

Too much sugar in the golf, obviously 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Storm Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the 
depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Ida.  The maximum 
sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts.


SUMMARY OF 520 PM EDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 79.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

[Windspeed]

Too much sugar in the golf, obviously 

I meant diabatic heating. Sorry, been a long day.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

45 knot FL winds not too far off Jamaica, an upgrade would seem likely.  Ridge position in ensembles, peninsular Florida doesn't look like it could happen, but a shift East to even Pensacola is possible if that MLC is the where the LLC forms, which seems likely.  

[turtlehurricane]

30 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

PV / upper trough that brought you storms last night is the culprit. 500-300 hPa level weakness in the ridge north of the TC. A more stacked and strong system will feel the poleward mid-to-upper flow versus a weaker system until 500 dm heights rebuild off the SECONUS and diabetic heating from Ida fills/squashes the PV. A gradual bend back NW is probable into landfall as the potential hurricane traverses the central GOM.

Thank you, I sensed there was some complex interaction going on between TD 9 and the disturbance that crossed Florida last night. Both systems flared up simultaneously, and they seemed to be attached from the beginning. 

I think the upper-low feature deepened more than expected, thanks to the plethora of deep convection it was producing, leading to a far weaker steering ridge.

It seems Ida is  coupling with the poleward current on the east side of the upper-low, indeed Ida's outflow is spreading north at incredible speeds, and has crossed the Florida Straits in just a few hours. I can actually see Ida's outflow cirrus from my balcony right now. 

This divergence will help Ida to quickly intensify, and convective development is biased towards northern semicircle too, both of which are factors that will push Ida north and east of track.

[blueberryfaygo]

6 hours ago, Yeoman said:

Hopefully it gets to a cat 5 right before landfall

yup.. that would be historic.  Andrew was last really good hurricane to make landfall on a major metropolitan area and cause massive wind damage.  I think was Michael was a cat 5 when it made landfall.. but it didnt hit prime real estate so know one really remembers it.  

[FLweather]

8 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Thank you, I sensed there was some complex interaction going on between TD 9 and the disturbance that crossed Florida last night. Both systems flared up simultaneously, and they seemed to be attached from the beginning. 

I think the upper-low feature deepened more than expected, thanks to the plethora of deep convection it was producing, leading to a far weaker steering ridge.

It seems Ida is  coupling with the poleward current on the east side of the upper-low, indeed Ida's outflow is spreading north at incredible speeds, and has crossed the Florida Straits in just a few hours. I can actually see Ida's outflow cirrus from my balcony right now. 

This divergence will help Ida to quickly intensify, and convective development is biased towards northern semicircle too, both of which are factors that will push Ida north and east of track.

With all due respect.

You're a meteorologist... You should know these things.

Unless getting met degree was on your bucket list of things to do but you have never really practiced that education.

Ya awfully rusty charlie.

 

But no disrespect intended.

 

But agree. Darn good outflow to the north and south of the center.

As long as the LLC stays away from land to minimize friction. This storm could look a lot different in the morning. Especially since the upper levels cool off after today's sun.

 

 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

There is no way this thing does not plow right into Cuba. 

The models show this 

[Amped]

Models keep speeding up the landfall time. How strong and organized it is when it enters the gulf will be key to how strong it is at landfall.

If it's a 993mb borderline cat1  entering the gulf it will have enough time to become a major before LA.  If it's still a 1005mb messy TS it will probably won't

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Unless the forecast of the mean ridge by GFS/Euro over Carolinas is really messed up, it might hit the Western Panhandle but the peninsula seems very, very unlikely.

[Prospero]

@turtlehurricane

Yea we in Florida always want that close by pass of the biggest storm. We live for that sometimes!

When we posted our predictions I think I said Ida would "the" historic one for this season. But it is earlier than I expected and just don't feel it much. Too fast, still not much to look at, etc. The models show a storm with potential, I see that. Maybe it will ease east and north, or not. I enjoy the anticipation, but not holding my breath for a wild storm-chasing live event.

I do suspect I was wrong about Ida being the historic storm of the season though. (But being wrong is something I am used to!)

 

[schoeppeya]

IDA may not have taken off yet but all the ingredients are there once it develops a core. Very impressive outflow pattern already, bath water temps, and a deep moisture feed evident coming all the way from Central America. 

[blueberryfaygo]

I am gonna chase.  Brining my kids with me.. Whats the best hotel to stay at that would offer the safest environment?  We can handle blown out windows.. but I definitely don't want to get caught up in any building collapses.

[blueberryfaygo]

 

Looks pretty sturdy to me

[Yeoman]

3 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

Seems like the track has shifted east with every model run. I'm starting to wonder if it might go due north into Florida. Probably not, but kind've looks like that on satellite.  

Anyone here have any theories why the track keeps shifting east as this comes into focus?

Who does the red tag vetting around here? Don't quit your day job..

[Prospero]

23 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said:

I am gonna chase.  Brining my kids with me.. Whats the best hotel to stay at that would offer the safest environment?  We can handle blown out windows.. but I definitely don't want to get caught up in any building collapses.

How old are your kids?

If it becomes a Cat 5 get your kids outa there! You can stay and report, take videos, and photos.

[jburns]

Let’s start using the storm banter thread for these cute quips. 

[It's Always Sunny]

Satellite imagery showing convection blossoming nicely downshear (east side of storm) but still some westerly shear imposing on Ida, with even some pesky dry air lingering to the west associated with the eroding TUTT. DMAX should overcome most of this but I'm interested to see how shear impacts all this overnight as it becomes more southerly.

[cptcatz]

2 hours ago, Prospero said:

@turtlehurricane

Yea we in Florida always want that close by pass of the biggest storm. We live for that sometimes!

When we posted our predictions I think I said Ida would "the" historic one for this season. But it is earlier than I expected and just don't feel it much. Too fast, still not much to look at, etc. The models show a storm with potential, I see that. Maybe it will ease east and north, or not. I enjoy the anticipation, but not holding my breath for a wild storm-chasing live event.

I do suspect I was wrong about Ida being the historic storm of the season though. (But being wrong is something I am used to!)

 

With the center being so far north in the Caribbean and all the convection to the north and east of the center, it may very well brush you in Tampa Bay. GFS shows this, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it get even closer.