Major Hurricane Ida

[csnavywx]

Hard pass on that run. Luckily, still 5 days out on an unformed invest.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 minute ago, csnavywx said:

Hard pass on that run.

Because a likely major hurricane hits New Orleans in 4 days, or something seems wrong with the modeling.

Thanks.

[ldub23]

5 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Because a likely major hurricane hits New Orleans in 4 days, or something seems wrong with the modeling.

Thanks.

Probably  because  its moving so much faster and is quite a  bit weaker. Moving that fast will likely  mean it wont  take advantage  of what  may be favorable  conditions. Lets see if  0z slows  it  back down or speeds it  up even more.

[csnavywx]

4 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Because a likely major hurricane hits New Orleans in 4 days, or something seems wrong with the modeling.

Thanks.

We don't need a 'cane into NO in this kind of setup and steering flow. Luckily, still a 1-2 days of run-to-run variability left (until it forms), so it likely won't stay there.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

GEFS not only widely spread in distance, also in time.  Has members offshore Wednesday morning.  These are sub 996 mb lows.

[dan11295]

31 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

We don't need a 'cane into NO in this kind of setup and steering flow. Luckily, still a 1-2 days of run-to-run variability left (until it forms), so it likely won't stay there.

We don't need a hurricane anywhere on the Gulf Coast right now.

[brentrich]

18 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

We don't need a hurricane anywhere on the Gulf Coast right now.

Unfortunately it's going to happen. I have the feeling it's going to be cat 4/5 hurricane hitting New Orleans by Monday. 

[Windspeed]

It can get exciting or disturbing, whatever floats your boat, when the globals show an intense system. I am guilty of eyeballing intensity as well. But it is best to remind to not rely on them for maximum intensity. Their use is for track guidance and potential environment. If they are resolving a hurricane, that's trouble. The TC models and SHIPs are better suited for intensity guidance. Plenty of intense hurricanes have made landfall that never showed up as a major hurricane near landfall by any of the globals. The shift east is troubling but not only are we still early, there's no vortex yet to track. So patience until TCG occurs.

[NavarreDon]

Not pointing this at anyone directly but, not sure how we can predict landfall from a system without a closed circulation. History tells us that this is a crapshoot at best. Using Grace as an example, before formation models trended from the FL big bend W to the MS/AL border. After formation they trended back E thru AL then into the FL Panhandle. The only thing that’s relatively sure now is a more N formation should equal a more E track & a more S formation should equal a more W track. At this point ,In the USA, people from Brownsville to at least the W FL Panhandle should have a eye raised for 99L.


.

[csnavywx]

13 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Not pointing this at anyone directly but, not sure how we can predict landfall from a system without a closed circulation. History tells us that this is a crapshoot at best. Using Grace as an example, before formation models trended from the FL big bend W to the MS/AL border. After formation they trended back E thru AL then into the FL Panhandle. The only thing that’s relatively sure now is a more N formation should equal a more E track & a more S formation should equal a more W track. At this point ,In the USA, people from Brownsville to at least the W FL Panhandle should have a eye raised for 99L.


.

TC formation generally favors the north end of the wave circulation envelope, where the curvature vorticity is naturally maximized. So, the modeling developing there isn't particularly surprising. Also, the synoptic steering features for Grace were more uncertain. Steering here is driven by a very large and displaced subtropical ridge, so there's less uncertainty on that component.

There's just not much "good" solution space. The best case seems to be on the lower-prob south end or a messy/slow initial vortex formation. And as mentioned before, that's not a very long list.

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

It can get exciting or disturbing, whatever floats your boat, when the globals show an intense system. I am guilty of eyeballing intensity as well. But it is best to remind to not rely on them for maximum intensity. Their use is for track guidance and potential environment. If they are resolving a hurricane, that's trouble. The TC models and SHIPs are better suited for intensity guidance. Plenty of intense hurricanes have made landfall that never showed up as a major hurricane near landfall by any of the globals. The shift east is troubling but not only are we still early, there's no vortex yet to track. So patience until TCG occurs.

This x100. Recon is scheduled to be out there tomorrow and as we’ve seen with our last few systems, that low level and high level/environmental data will be key in helping the guidance pinpoint the landfall envelope and hopefully intensity as well.

[Windspeed]

Speaking for rapid organization, the 18z HWRF now has 99L making landfall in western Cuba as a hurricane. That's some pretty rapid TCG and intensification in the short-term, so piles of salt.

[RU848789]

44 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Not pointing this at anyone directly but, not sure how we can predict landfall from a system without a closed circulation. History tells us that this is a crapshoot at best. Using Grace as an example, before formation models trended from the FL big bend W to the MS/AL border. After formation they trended back E thru AL then into the FL Panhandle. The only thing that’s relatively sure now is a more N formation should equal a more E track & a more S formation should equal a more W track. At this point ,In the USA, people from Brownsville to at least the W FL Panhandle should have a eye raised for 99L.


.

Dr. Knabb (former NHC Director) was just on TWC saying the exact same thing about how hard it is to predict tracks without having a closed circulation, but obviously he also is worried about this one, since there is some chance it could become a very dangerous storm in the Gulf.  

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Is the NHC 5 day development cone where they think a not yet developed disturbance could become a tropical cyclone, or where the possible TC could be in 5 days?  Because the GFS and two dynamic hurricane models show landfall in under 5 days and the red cone is not onshore Northern Gulf.

[Windspeed]

Is the NHC 5 day development cone where they think a not yet developed disturbance could become a tropical cyclone, or where the possible TC could be in 5 days?  Because the GFS and two dynamic hurricane models show landfall in under 5 days and the red cone is not onshore Northern Gulf.

Where TCG may occur based on most recent progs. Even that information may change between outlooks as the situation is fluid. The wave axis lifting north can dramatically change location point of genesis. So caution is warranted.

[blueberryfaygo]

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

TC formation generally favors the north end of the wave circulation envelope, where the curvature vorticity is naturally maximized. So, the modeling developing there isn't particularly surprising. Also, the synoptic steering features for Grace were more uncertain. Steering here is driven by a very large and displaced subtropical ridge, so there's less uncertainty on that component.

There's just not much "good" solution space. The best case seems to be on the lower-prob south end or a messy/slow initial vortex formation. And as mentioned before, that's not a very long list.

What do you mean?  The 18Z GFS solution looked like a very intriguing and historic event.  Would be great to chase too.

[MUWX]

4 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said:

What do you mean?  The 18Z GFS solution looked like a very intriguing and historic event.  Would be great to chase too.

You guys have very different definitions of the word “good.” 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

9 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said:

What do you mean?  The 18Z GFS solution looked like a very intriguing and historic event.  Would be great to chase too.

You ever been w/o electricity more than a day or two?  My biggest and 'badest' was 60 miles inland from a Cat 2, not even a major, and houses in my neighborhood had roof damage (not my roof, although I had tiles and boards from somebody's roof in my yard).  I was lucky, only 5 days no power.  I get hyped about big weather events, I suspect most people on the board do, but imagine someone hoping your home town is ground zero for an EF-5 tornado.  Those are intriguing and historical as well.

[Ryland]

I might be missing something, but all guidance thinks this should be headed NW now. Convection is currently firing around a swirl moving due west still.    

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

6 minutes ago, Ryland said:

I might be missing something, but all guidance thinks this should be headed NW now. Convection is currently firing around a swirl moving due west still.    

And looking at SWIR on CIMMS, the MLC is almost a degree North of where the Invest is tagged.  That could be a rapid North jump if an LLC fires below that.  Bed time, AC out at work today, our customers get let in at 6:20, (we officially open at 7 am) or the traffic gets crazy after about 6:15, and I should work from home (exit tickets) before work.   18Z Euro ensembles below, more Louisiana than Texas members, later in this run (hour 144) there is an outlier still at 977 mb near Luling, TX.  

 

I'll wait on a recon center fix making the models before I get too concerned with 4 or 5 hours of a satellite loop.  I assume this will have an eye by Sunday night and satellite tracking will be easier.

[cptcatz]

52 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

You ever been w/o electricity more than a day or two?  My biggest and 'badest' was 60 miles inland from a Cat 2, not even a major, and houses in my neighborhood had roof damage (not my roof, although I had tiles and boards from somebody's roof in my yard).  I was lucky, only 5 days no power.  I get hyped about big weather events, I suspect most people on the board do, but imagine someone hoping your home town is ground zero for an EF-5 tornado.  Those are intriguing and historical as well.

The way I see it is you can hope and wish for the biggest destructive storm or you can hope and wish for sunshine all year, but at the end of the day your hoping and wishing has absolutely zero impact on what will actually happen.  As long as you're not making light of someone else's actual misery, I say hope and wish for whatever you want.  

[hawkeye_wx]

The GFS continues to focus on and develop the northern end of this wave earlier each run.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS continues to focus on and develop the northern end of this wave more/earlier each run.

And it looks like the result is stronger and faster at least so far

[WxWatcher007]

Ends up being slightly west and about the same intensity pressure wise. 

[Windspeed]

Ends up being slightly west and about the same intensity pressure wise. 

96 hrs / 4 days...
Very little lead time. Also so very typical of intense landfalls. Less than 72 hours from genesis to major hurricane.

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: LA vs 12Z at TX

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 23.2N  86.0W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 28.08.2021   60  23.2N  86.0W     1007            31
    0000UTC 29.08.2021   72  25.0N  87.9W     1003            36
    1200UTC 29.08.2021   84  26.7N  89.8W      999            39
    0000UTC 30.08.2021   96  28.2N  91.2W      990            49
    1200UTC 30.08.2021  108  29.5N  91.9W      978            60
    0000UTC 31.08.2021  120  30.8N  92.1W      981            39
    1200UTC 31.08.2021  132  32.5N  92.1W      983            30
    0000UTC 01.09.2021  144  33.3N  91.7W      990            25

[Amped]

Central LA overnight Sunday seems to be the landfall consensus.  CMC, RGEM,ICON, GFS. 

12z  ECMWF is in west central LA but 00z run not out yet.   If it comes east by about 50-75 miles then there's a pretty impressive. consensus for 108hrs out.  

00z UKMET also in western LA, not bad considering  it has a known southwest west bias and I would expect it to be in Mexico at this range.

 

[csnavywx]

Convection now coalescing on the northern end of the wave. Should get a nice convective burst out of that tonight.

[hawkeye_wx]

00z Euro

[Nibor]

The difference between the GFS and Euro is 1mb and like 25 miles...

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