WxWatcher007 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Peak season is approaching and it's looking like it in the Atlantic, with three named systems (Fred, Grace, Henri) recently and more likely coming in the next week. Invest 99L was designated today by the NHC and although it only has 60% 5 day odds, the guidance in totality has a very strong signal for TC genesis, and more concerning, a very conducive environment for development in the Gulf should the system organize sufficiently. Let's begin a more targeted discussion. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Ridiculous amount of convection over Central America. I suppose the invest is in there somewhere? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Ridiculous amount of convection over Central America. I suppose the invest is in there somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Judging by 18Z Euro ensembles, the trend that started closer to Veracruz than Tampico and has been coming North may be shifting from the NW Gulf (Texas) to the Northern Gulf is continuing. Bed before 0Z models, up before 5 am CDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 The GFS's depiction of the gulf as 99L traverses it is exceptionally favorable for a significant tropical cyclone to say the least. Whew. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx_2001 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 This right here might be the real deal... Someone's probably about to take a big hit unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 HWRF gets it to a cat 5 and as always we should use HWRF as a worst case event but that worst case event is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Deja Laura on 0Z and 6Z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 shrimp people storm 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Hopefully chasers can get gusts over 100 to film 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 The model trend is not just north, but also to develop it earlier near the Yucatan channel. For days models were showing a last-minute developer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Worst time of year for any TC to reach the northern GOM regardless of gulf loop current position and eddy proximity. The entirety of the northern coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle is ≥30°C; its profile extending several hundred miles out from shoreline with a very large surface area in the western GOM. A slow moving or stalled system can still upwell and lower its maximum potential intensity, but from the highest of known intensity potential here. Even a large TC with decent motion is only limited by the atmospheric environment which it is contained, interaction with airmass, structure, shear, etc.. Thermodynamic profiles such as these are essentially overkill this time of year until we start seeing cold fronts reach the GOM in late September/October, or numerous TCs decrease heat content.That being said, even a slow moving large TC could stall over the central GOM for several days and likely still remain a major hurricane if under a favorable atmospheric environment. The gulf loop current extends all the way up to the Mississippi River's discharge current at present. So there is a very a deep 26°C isotherm from the Yucatán Channel up to the shallow shelf waters near Louisiana. Really the entire GOM has good depth of heat content, but obviously that absurd loop current profile is like the NW Caribbean. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 9 hours ago, hlcater said: The GFS's depiction of the gulf as 99L traverses it is exceptionally favorable for a significant tropical cyclone to say the least. Whew. Check out where the moisture is being pulled from on the GFS. All the way from Central America. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That coupled with current OHC profile and dual outflow channels is the blue print to avoiding the northern Gulf coast collapser sceanario. Strikes me a scenario in which landfall intensity will be driven nearly exclusively by internal processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Waking up this morning to more disturbing model trends. The GFS has now consistently shown run after run, 99L becoming a major hurricane landfall in the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast region. The EURO also shows 99L becoming a significant storm, and shows another powerful Cape Verde hurricane approaching the Caribbean in about a week. The EURO has also shown this for a few runs now. I'm reminded of when Harvey was nothing more than a wave in the Caribbean, yet models began consistently showing a major hurricane approaching the Texas coast. We could have a problem here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: shrimp people storm hundreds of dollars in damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 oh cool another north gulf coast or Texas storm boring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 oh cool another north gulf coast or Texas storm boring So boring yet you'll be posting nonetheless, right? lol 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 My understanding, 6Z models get least AMDAR/ACARS (upper air wind, heights and temp data) because not many airplanes flying middle of the night/early morning Americas/Western Europe. But 6Z Euro ensembles have stopped trending East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 37 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: oh cool another north gulf coast or Texas storm boring Seems like people care more about the east coast because it's more rare than a hurricane hit in the gulf.. This forum was really active last week tracking Henri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: My understanding, 6Z models get least AMDAR/ACARS (upper air wind, heights and temp data) because not many airplanes flying middle of the night/early morning Americas/Western Europe. But 6Z Euro ensembles have stopped trending East. We could always hope for a Bret '99 situation, where maybe it strikes a very sparsely populated region like Padre Island or something. But that would have to pin the needle on the thread just right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: We could always hope for a Bret '99 situation, where maybe it strikes a very sparsely populated region like Padre Island or something. But that would have to pin the needle on the thread just right. Bret struck the least populated county, IIRC, (Kenedy with one 'n' IIRC) on the Atlantic or Gulf Coasts. I did hear the massive King Ranch lost a lot of cattle, from wind, not surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 The 12z GFS deepens this system by nearly 30 mb in 18 hours Sunday over the central gulf, and 45 mb in 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Yeah I think we'd be looking at a Monday/Monday night/early Tuesday morning landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 12Z GFS has landfall in Louisiana at 932 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 Heh, 99L does not appear to be wasting any time getting organized today. Note the sharpening of the wave axis and evident mid level circulation developing. If these trends continue, location of low level vortex / TCG is going to be sooner ahead of schedule than yet modeled. This would give credence to more northerly clusters of track ensembles, but of course still all unknowns until we have a CoC to track and better model initializations. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 33 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Bret struck the least populated county, IIRC, (Kenedy with one 'n' IIRC) on the Atlantic or Gulf Coasts. I did hear the massive King Ranch lost a lot of cattle, from wind, not surge. Yeah that’s why they had to partner up with Ford to make money off city people who want a rugged image. I think they are doing better now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Heh, 99L does not appear to be wasting any time getting organized today. Note the sharpening of the wave axis and evident mid level circulation developing. If these trends continue, location of low level vortex / TCG is going to be sooner ahead of schedule that even modeled initiation. This would give credence to more northerly clusters of track ensembles, but of course still all unknowns until we have a CoC to track and better model initializations. Looks excellent. These storms are always so much better than CV long trackers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 25, 2021 Share Posted August 25, 2021 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ouch that Just might hurt!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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