September 2021

[gravitylover]

It's absolutely pouring out there (again). The first round unloaded a half inch in just a few minutes.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(68/83), or +5.

About 1" of rain today.     The T stays in low 70's.

72*(87%) here at 6am and rain starting.     70* at 8am.

[lee59]

Raining here. First measurable rain since midnight.

[gmendevils8204]

Didn’t hear much all night but when I woke up about an hour ago, the rain was coming down pretty hard.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy with periods of rain. Moderate to heavy rain is likely across eastern Long Island into eastern New England. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 72°

Newark: 76°

Philadelphia: 74°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 78.7°; 15-Year: 79.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 80.2°; 15-Year: 80.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 81.3°; 15-Year: 81.5°

A warming trend will develop during the weekend.

[bluewave]

Sunday into Monday looks like our first chance to make a run on 90° this month. The SE ridge will be near record levels. Tough to sustain cooler departures like the first 5 days of September.
 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/09/2021  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 THU  09| FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16 CLIMO
 X/N  73| 61  79| 58  79| 63  87| 70  89| 68  82| 67  84| 69  83 59 76

 

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.32" of rain so far today.

Current temp 68/DP 67/RH 98%

[SACRUS]

69 degrees front moving through and so far .27 in the bucket in CNJ.  Front slow to clear today setting up and beautiful end of the week and this weekend.  Fri (9/10) / Sat (9/11) gorgeous sunny days low humidity and highs near 80.  Warmup starts  Sun (9/12) and continues through next week.  Ridge builds next chance at 90 in the warmer spots Mon (9/13) - Wed (9/15).  Beyond next week and into next weekend 9/17, overall warm looks to be sustained.

[gravitylover]

This front is moving too slowly... It's so soggy out there

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Sunday into Monday looks like our first chance to make a run on 90° this month. The SE ridge will be near record levels. Tough to sustain cooler departures like the first 5 days of September.
 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/09/2021  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 THU  09| FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16 CLIMO
 X/N  73| 61  79| 58  79| 63  87| 70  89| 68  82| 67  84| 69  83 59 76

another impressive ridge showing up toward day 10

[forkyfork]

 

On 3/11/2020 at 12:08 PM, forkyfork said:

every time this signal shows up we break records

 

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

another impressive ridge showing up toward day 10

They are finally getting a trough out West. It has been a dueling WAR and Western Ridge pattern all summer. So it looks like the WAR will be going solo for a change.

 

 

[GrindOutWins]

Don't have any interest in seeing 80+ again this entire year. It's time for fall weather. 

[uncle W]

late season warm spells are becoming more frequent in recent years...

Year..consecutive 80+ Max.
1881..9/23-9/28......6...91
1891..10/3-10/5......3...86
1895..9/20-9/23......4...97
1898..10/3-10/5......3...81
1905..9/28-9/30......3...88
1914..9/20-9/24......5...95
1920..9/23-9/26......4...88
1921..9/28-9/30......3...87
1922..9/30-10/3......4...88
1927..9/30-10/2......3...90
1930..9/20-9/26......7...87
1934..9/23-9/27......5...83
1941..9/21-9/23......3...91
1941..10/4-10/6......3...94
1946..9/25-9/27......3...83
1946..10/4-10/7......4...87
1948..9/27-9/29......3...84
1949..10/9-10/12....4...88
1950..10/1-10/3......3...86
1951..9/19-9/23......5...85
1954..10/1-10/4......4...86
1954..10/11-10/14..4...87
1959..9/21-9/24......4...90
1959..9/27-9/30......4...83
1959..10/4-10/6......3...88
1961..9/22-9/25......4...90
1965..9/21-9/23......3...88

1967..10/3-10/5......3...86
1968..9/17-9/26....10...87
1968..10/1-10/3......3...85
1970..9/21-9/26......6...94
1972..9/25-9/27......3...86
1980..9/21-9/23......3...94
1984..9/23-9/25......3...86
2004..9/21-9/23......3...82
2007..9/25-9/27......3...87
2007..10/4-10/8......5...87
2010..9/22-9/25......4...89

2016..9/20-9/23......4...87

2016..10/17-10/19..3...85

2017..9/21-9/27......7...91

2019..9/21-9/23......3...89...had two days in October with a max of 93...

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

another impressive ridge showing up toward day 10

That's a massive ridge. Would guarantee more 90s but could see onshore component show up. 

[ForestHillWx]

80s yes; 90s doubtful outside the warm spot. The averages are in the 70s for temps out this way in western Jersey. 
 

[LibertyBell]

53 minutes ago, uncle W said:

late season warm spells are becoming more frequent in recent years...

Year..consecutive 80+ Max.
1881..9/23-9/28......6...91
1891..10/3-10/5......3...86
1895..9/20-9/23......4...97
1898..10/3-10/5......3...81
1905..9/28-9/30......3...88
1914..9/20-9/24......5...95
1920..9/23-9/26......4...88
1921..9/28-9/30......3...87
1922..9/30-10/3......4...88
1927..9/30-10/2......3...90
1930..9/20-9/26......7...87
1934..9/23-9/27......5...83
1941..9/21-9/23......3...91
1941..10/4-10/6......3...94
1946..9/25-9/27......3...83
1946..10/4-10/7......4...87
1948..9/27-9/29......3...84
1949..10/9-10/12....4...88
1950..10/1-10/3......3...86
1951..9/19-9/23......5...85
1954..10/1-10/4......4...86
1954..10/11-10/14..4...87
1959..9/21-9/24......4...90
1959..9/27-9/30......4...83
1959..10/4-10/6......3...88
1961..9/22-9/25......4...90
1965..9/21-9/23......3...88

1967..10/3-10/5......3...86
1968..9/17-9/26....10...87
1968..10/1-10/3......3...85
1970..9/21-9/26......6...94
1972..9/25-9/27......3...86
1980..9/21-9/23......3...94
1984..9/23-9/25......3...86
2004..9/21-9/23......3...82
2007..9/25-9/27......3...87
2007..10/4-10/8......5...87
2010..9/22-9/25......4...89

2016..9/20-9/23......4...87

2016..10/17-10/19..3...85

2017..9/21-9/27......7...91

2019..9/21-9/23......3...89...had two days in October with a max of 93...

Say what? In October 2019 we had two days of 90+? I thought it was just 1?

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Sunday into Monday looks like our first chance to make a run on 90° this month. The SE ridge will be near record levels. Tough to sustain cooler departures like the first 5 days of September.
 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/09/2021  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 THU  09| FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16 CLIMO
 X/N  73| 61  79| 58  79| 63  87| 70  89| 68  82| 67  84| 69  83 59 76

 

 

But we didn't hit 90 last year after August either.  I remain highly skeptical of reaching 90 again where I live or for NYC for that matter.  EWR and even LGA may do it....I would put EWR at 90% and LGA at 50% while 30% for NYC and 20% for JFK.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, gmendevils8204 said:

Didn’t hear much all night but when I woke up about an hour ago, the rain was coming down pretty hard.

it's supposed to rain all day and part of tonight

 

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the GFS is correct about the warm offshore flow on Monday, then even JFK can hit 90°.

 

Wow that would be fun.  I see forecasts have been ticking upwards for Monday, slowly but surely.

 

[nycwinter]

i made a prediction  before september that nyc will not hit 90 degrees again until next spring i am modifying it saying  i meant central park will not and i am sticking to it! i am a man of my word..

[Cfa]

September is a summer month.

[bluewave]

The EPS weeklies are in endless summer mode as the WAR continues into early October.

9-13 to 9-20

 

9-20 to 9-27

 

9-27 to 10-4

 

 

[SnoSki14]

We haven't seen our last tropical system given that steering pattern.

Westerlies will be well north of climo. Larry's recurve was an anomaly.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Getting the wind direction right for JFK will probably come down to the timing of the backdoor. 

why must there be a backdoor front at all? I remember when our hot airmasses were much stronger and we'd have 7-10 day heatwaves or even longer.  How come we don't have those anymore?

 

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS weeklies are in endless summer mode as the WAR continues into early October.

9-13 to 9-20

 

9-20 to 9-27

 

9-27 to 10-4

 

 

Yeah but Chris haven't you noticed that we dont get those endlessly long summer heatwaves anymore? I mean 7-10 days or longer.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

i made a prediction  before september that nyc will not hit 90 degrees again until next spring i am modifying it saying  i meant central park will not and i am sticking to it! i am a man of my word..

What has higher chances of happening, a 90 degree day at either NYC or JFK in September or Gallo hitting above .220 by the end of the season lol.

 

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah but Chris haven't you noticed that we dont get those endlessly long summer heatwaves anymore? I mean 7-10 days or longer.

Endless summer in September doesn’t mean every day for the rest of the month hits 90° at a place like Newark. Plenty of 80°+ days with the potential for several 90s mixed in. So an extended period when most of the days are above average. 
 

Newark daily average high and low

9-13…..79/62

9-20…..76/59

9-27…..73/56

[uncle W]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Say what? In October 2019 we had two days of 90+? I thought it was just 1?

 

What...I said it...these are three or more days with a max 80 or above for three days or longer starting around the first day of calendar fall...two of my favorite winters from my youth 1959-60 and 1968-69 had late heat...

[rclab]

4 minutes ago, uncle W said:

What...I said it...these are three or more days with a max 80 or above for three days or longer starting around the first day of calendar fall...two of my favorite winters from my youth 1959-60 and 1968-69 had late heat...

Good evening Unc. I remember that near Christmas snowfall about a week (?) before the holiday. 60/61 wasn’t bad either as I recollect. As always ….