September 2021

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(67/84), or +4.

78* or better today and m.clear.

The next 16 days are all AN.     GFS OP/ENS going different ways after the 17th., however.

68*(72%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue.      70* by 9am.      72* at 10am.        73* at 11am, but back to 72* at Noon.       79* at 4pm.

Reached 86* here yesterday.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 81°

Newark: 84°

Philadelphia: 84°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 79.3°; 15-Year: 79.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 80.7°; 15-Year: 81.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 81.9°; 15-Year: 82.0°

A period of rain is likely late tomorrow into Thursday morning. General amounts will likely average 0.25”-0.75” with some locally higher amounts.

[bluewave]

These great tweets from the NWS Mt Holly highlight how extreme our weather has become.

 

[Brian5671]

Quiet week or so coming up outside of a couple showers Wed night.  We can use the break for sure.

[FPizz]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

These great tweets from the NWS Mt Holly highlight how extreme our weather has become.

 

For the 2nd linked tweet, some of those extra warnings have to do with better technology.  Going back not too long ago there was pretty much no such thing as a radar indicated tornado.  It has been a busy year though. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, FPizz said:

For the 2nd linked tweet, some of those extra warnings have to do with better technology.  Going back not too long ago there was pretty much no such thing as a radar indicated tornado.  It has been a busy year though. 

The last few years stand out when compared to the rest of the doppler era of much better radar detection. 

[CIK62]

Stay out of the water on Friday PM despite the nice weather.       I think the lifeguards are gone for the season so I expect the backup lifeguards (ie. FD units located near beach areas) to have many calls.

NB:  I just spotted the LG's here in CI go on duty, so maybe they are here till school starts as usual.

[Intensewind002]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

These great tweets from the NWS Mt Holly highlight how extreme our weather has become.

 

Wow I thought I was joking last week when I said NJ has become the new tornado alley

[bluewave]

28 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Wow I thought I was joking last week when I said NJ has become the new tornado alley

This may be the furthest north along the East Coast that a post tropical or tropical cyclone has spawned an EF-3 tornado.

[SACRUS]

82 / 57 now.  Overall once past the front (rains / storms) on Wed and part of Thu am, looks very nice / overall dry the next 5 days near normal before the ridge rebuilds and warms up by Su (9/12) through what should be most of next week.  850 temps to approach >16c by next (Mon 9/13) - Thu (9/16) so the next shot at heat and 90s in the warmer spots.  overall warmer than normal into the longer range / great beyond.

[SnoSki14]

It's probably gonna be another summer to winter scenario. 

Could see another big gulf system that leads the charge ahead of a major trough.

[bluewave]

It’s been a challenge to string 5 or more cool days together like we just did from 9-1 to 9-5

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJ6026&year=2021&var=avg&gddbase=50&gddceil=86&how=diff&cmap=jet&dpi=100&_fmt=png
 

[RedSky]

7 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Quiet week or so coming up outside of a couple showers Wed night.  We can use the break for sure.

Flash flood watches issued lol

 

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Flash flood watches issued lol

 

looks overdone-models don't have all that much....an inch or less and it's been dry for a week now....

[RedSky]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

looks overdone-models don't have all that much....an inch or less and it's been dry for a week now....

That's what is curious it doesn't look on paper like a training problem

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

That's what is curious it doesn't look on paper like a training problem

one of the NE mets was referring how we are often over-warned for flooding.    Part of the reason some too last week's event lightly....

[FPizz]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

one of the NE mets was referring how we are often over-warned for flooding.    Part of the reason some took last week's event lightly....

Heard this from many people at a bbq this weekend.  When everything is warned and nothing happens 99.5% of the time, people let their guard down.  Many were saying we get warnings on our phones all the time and nothing happens.  We know better, but the general public overlooks pretty much all warnings.

[gravitylover]

Explaining that the watches and warnings have to cover a fairly large area is useless. People can't understand the nuances, they just don't have it in them.

[SnoSki14]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s been a challenge to string 5 or more cool days together like we just did from 9-1 to 9-5

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJ6026&year=2021&var=avg&gddbase=50&gddceil=86&how=diff&cmap=jet&dpi=100&_fmt=png
 

Can't do it without strong blocking.

[Gravity Wave]

10 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Heard this from many people at a bbq this weekend.  When everything is warned and nothing happens 99.5% of the time, people let their guard down.  Many were saying we get warnings on our phones all the time and nothing happens.  We know better, but the general public overlooks pretty much all warnings.

My friends have said this as well, it's a big problem. The issue with Flash Flood Warnings (vs T-Storm, tornado, and winter storm warnings) is that most people who get them are at minimal risk of actually being directly impacted by the flooding since they're not in low-lying or susceptible areas, and unless you're familiar with flooding patterns in your area then you're not going to know what your personal risk actually is. If you live in an area that isn't susceptible to flooding you might never experience a FFW that verifies for you personally, and a layperson might then draw the conclusion that FFWs aren't much to worry about. This could lead to them venturing out and getting caught in a much more dangerous location during a rain event because they don't realize that the minimal risk their own neighborhood might be at isn't applicable to other areas.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

one of the NE mets was referring how we are often over-warned for flooding.    Part of the reason some too last week's event lightly....

I don’t think that we are over-warned for flooding. The NWS usually gets reports verifying their flash flood warnings. With  last weeks event, not much the NWS can do to solve societal issues. The illegal basement apartments in NYC have been around for a long time. They exist due to the lack of affordable housing in NYC. As for all the cars stuck on flooded roads, people often underestimate the depth of water. Every flash flood around the world has videos of people driving into floods and getting stuck. Maybe we need NWS spotter type education for the general public on the dangers of driving into floods. 

[wdrag]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I don’t think that we are over-warned for flooding. The NWS usually gets reports verifying their flash flood warnings. With  last weeks event, not much the NWS can do to solve societal issues. The illegal basement apartments in NYC have been around for a long time. They exist due to the lack of affordable housing in NYC. As for all the cars stuck on flooded roads, people often underestimate the depth of water. Every flash flood around the world has videos of people driving into floods and getting stuck. Maybe we need NWS spotter type education for the general public on the dangers of driving into floods. 

A problem last Wednesday; NIGHT time... much more difficult to judge-assess, especially in near panic mode of torrential rain and some lightning.  Also, I think the upgraded warnings were not NEW issuance but prior warning updates (I will stand corrected if I'm wrong but IEM COW did not show new warnings for me); TRAPPED???  EMERGENCY warnings almost too late as torrents were surcharging manhole-sewer systems and people were getting stuck, abandoning vehicles. Finally for me: how much practice do we get warning the EXTREME RECORD breaking event?  Experience breeds confidence.  WARNING the EXTREME in real time made me almost always pause and be more conservative because it was so seldom in my lifetime. 

[wdrag]

Am seeing dry forecasts for next Mon-Tue???  Not what the KI from the EC is saying and I'm seeing above normal PW oscillating S-N at 40 N here.   Think we need to be thinking qpf on one of those days here. 

[uncle W]

I put my rain guage away until winter so no more flooding rains...

[donsutherland1]

Clouds will increase late in the day tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms are likely overnight into Thursday morning. A general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall is likely. Locally heavier amounts are possible. An area that includes northwestern New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania could see 1"-2" of rain.

Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. The second half of the month could feature above to perhaps much above normal temperatures.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was -6.42 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.099 today.

On September 5 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.913 (RMM). The September 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.714 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 59% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.0° (0.8° above normal).

 

[Santa Claus]

people have been bitching about the NWS and TV Mets since Moses wore short pants and it’s never going to change in your lifetime.  too many warnings, not enough warnings, the weathermen are always wrong, etc.  the average person barely has a surface knowledge of weather and what goes into it and how it’s forecasted.  also the average person consumes 14 pounds of Cool Ranch Doritos in a year and flosses once every three months.  if the NWS can save a few average people by stopping them from driving directly into floods and tornadoes, that’s basically the most you can hope for, and they are still going to complain anyway.

[forkyfork]

30 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

people have been bitching about the NWS and TV Mets since Moses wore short pants and it’s never going to change in your lifetime.  too many warnings, not enough warnings, the weathermen are always wrong, etc.  the average person barely has a surface knowledge of weather and what goes into it and how it’s forecasted.  also the average person consumes 14 pounds of Cool Ranch Doritos in a year and flosses once every three months.  if the NWS can save a few average people by stopping them from driving directly into floods and tornadoes, that’s basically the most you can hope for, and they are still going to complain anyway.

let the stupids drown 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said:

people have been bitching about the NWS and TV Mets since Moses wore short pants and it’s never going to change in your lifetime.  too many warnings, not enough warnings, the weathermen are always wrong, etc.  the average person barely has a surface knowledge of weather and what goes into it and how it’s forecasted.  also the average person consumes 14 pounds of Cool Ranch Doritos in a year and flosses once every three months.  if the NWS can save a few average people by stopping them from driving directly into floods and tornadoes, that’s basically the most you can hope for, and they are still going to complain anyway.

Will, I would have gone my whole life without knowing Moses wore short pants. Oh and Shanah Tovah. As always ….

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

people have been bitching about the NWS and TV Mets since Moses wore short pants and it’s never going to change in your lifetime.  too many warnings, not enough warnings, the weathermen are always wrong, etc.  the average person barely has a surface knowledge of weather and what goes into it and how it’s forecasted.  also the average person consumes 14 pounds of Cool Ranch Doritos in a year and flosses once every three months.  if the NWS can save a few average people by stopping them from driving directly into floods and tornadoes, that’s basically the most you can hope for, and they are still going to complain anyway.

If people care so little about the weather why do these guys put the weatherperson on like 4 times during a newscast though? It irks me because they just say the same things multiple times lol

and while we're at it, why is the news on for like 6-8 hours every day?  People really want to watch the same crap over and over again?

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Explaining that the watches and warnings have to cover a fairly large area is useless. People can't understand the nuances, they just don't have it in them.

the only way to do it is to just shut the roads down so people cant travel, that will take the decision making process out of their hands.