September 2021

[ForestHillWx]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think the colorful birds I like to photograph spread this stuff around

Ragweed pollen is distributed by wind primarily. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°

Newark: 79°

Philadelphia: 77°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 79.9°; 15-Year: 80.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 81.3°; 15-Year: 81.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.4°

Readings will remain generally below normal through much of the week.

[uncle W]

I'm up in Dingmans Ferry and we had a little light rain earlier and radar has more to come...62 degrees and cloudy now...

[bluewave]

You would never guess that Newark had 40 days reaching 90° by just looking at how cool the big summer holiday weekends have been. 

Newark high temperatures 

May….29….52°

May….30….53°

May....31….76°….Memorial Day

Jul…….3…..70°

Jul……..4….84°….Independence Day

Jul……..5….89°

Sep……4….82°

Sep…….5

Sep…….6…..Labor Day

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	54	0
2	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2021	40	118
-	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0

 

[MJO812]

Another rainy day

[bkviking]

Bluewave - please update your chart for number of rainy weekends in a summer. Never thought we could beat 2009 awfulness. Here we are. 

[dWave]

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Another rainy day

^^^The caption of summer 2021..at least the weekends

[Brian5671]

have to settle for 2 out of 3 this weekend

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(68/82), or +3.       Basically the next 10 days are near Normal or AN.     Week 3 looks BN.   ***The GEFS/GFS could not be more different late.

Larry gives Bermuda a scare Thursday PM, but misses by about 150mi.       It is just Cat. 1 then.     We get minor? swells here on Thurs./Fri.  and a 700mi. miss.

68*(87%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds, some blue.     67* at 7am.     70* at 9am.

Reached 77* yesterday.

The swells will hardly be minor. Hurricane force wind area and captured fetch are two of the biggest components of swell generation and they will both be major for Larry. Long period swells are excellent stores of energy. Larry will likely lead to major beach erosion and wash overs as a multi day event

[CIK62]

LBSF, I believe you are right about the potential force  of the swells that will reach us.     My reference is always CI, which is usually protected.        The Swell Period should peak at 18secs.    

I have played around in the shallow surf as these swells arrive in CI, but would not try it at the NJ coast or even the open Rockaways.         It is the freak and rogue swells that are the most fun but the most dangerous too.           You can play and dodge with them for two minutes and then it goes calm-----till a wall of water appears from nowhere 100 yards off shore.

The March 1962 Northeaster is a great example of a 1000 mile long E-W fetch into the Jersey shore.        There were seven consecutive high tides involved.      CI had some flooding then but Sandy had all such storms beat in our lifetime, I would say.         Because of Hurricane Donna and this  Northeaster,  the Army Corp of Engineers had to preform a Beach Nourishment Program throughout our area in 1962-64.         The CI beaches wound up 100' or so wider.       In 1994 the elevation of the beached was raised 5' to 8' in another BNP,  but Sandy did not care    Lol.

[bluewave]

Larry will be a surfers special. Building swells peaking by later in the week. The very large wind field will result in a top 10 surfing period for the year. Beach patrols will probably close the ocean to swimmers.

 

[donsutherland1]

Tranquil and mainly dry weather will continue through much of the week. Some light rain is possible late Wednesday into Thursday, but rainfall amounts don't appear to be significant. Temperatures will remain below to near normal.

Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. The second half of the month could feature above to perhaps much above normal temperatures.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was +14.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.183 today.

On September 3 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.701 (RMM). The September 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.799 (RMM).

 

[Santa Claus]

somewhat ironically, we now need the rain to wash off some of these muddy, silty roads and surfaces.  River Road is a mess.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 75degs.(68/83), or +4.

Should clear up quickly and be near 80.     Happy End of Season!

70*(99%RH) here at 6am, overcast.    71* by 9am, p. sunny.        75* by 11am.     77* at Noon.     79* at 1pm.       80* by 1:30pm.       62* by 2pm.     83* by 3pm.        Reached 86* near 5pm.

[bluewave]

The latest Euro seasonal for DJF has a similar 500 mb pattern to 2017-2018. 

 

 

[wdrag]

Guidance does not seem to have any more below normal temperatures days in CP from today forward through at least mid month? Is that possible?

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 82°

Newark: 86°

Philadelphia: 84°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 79.6°; 15-Year: 79.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 81.0°; 15-Year: 81.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 82.2°; 15-Year: 82.2°

Readings will remain generally below normal to near normal through much of the week.

[LoboLeader1]

69*(88%RH) here as of 9am, partly cloudy

[SACRUS]

68 and today lining up as a gem.   Low to perhaps a mid 80 in the warm spots.  More of the same tomorrow before front arrives and trough into the east with rain and some storms.  Cooler to near normal by the end of the week and next weekend (9/10).  Warming trend look to arrive by Tue (9/14) with next shot at 90s.  Overall Sep looking to end on the warmer side.  Looking like a great stretch of weather.

[thunderbolt]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The latest Euro seasonal for DJF has a similar 500 mb pattern to 2017-2018. 

 

 

You would think with that stout ridge over Alaska and the blocking over the pole it would be a little bit colder I guess the south east ridge is flexing his muscles

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

You would think with that stout ridge over Alaska and the blocking over the pole it would be a little bit colder I guess the south east ridge is flexing his muscles

This is going to be the first winter with the new warmer 1991-2020 climate normals. So the NYC new average for DJF rose from 35.1° to 36.2°. It will be interesting to see if the warmer averages make it easier for  NYC to finally sneak in a cooler than average winter. Every winter since 15-16 in NYC has been warmer than normal.

[CIK62]

EURO Wave Action around here peaks Friday, PM.         The system is about a 750 mile miss

[wdrag]

Pattern trying to set up after the 16th-17th for a big rain but nothing to grab onto yet...PW building in the Gulf States with WAR circulation trying to draw this RH northeastward. 

In the meantime we have rain events prior to, around the 8th-9th and maybe the 12th-13th. 

Looks basically above normal temperature from today through the 20th in NYC unless someone see an interruption.  HI modeled into the mid 90s but that thats D9 EC which can be a little extreme hat far in advance. 

[nyrangers1022]

Still summer here in Florida

[CIK62]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Pattern trying to set up after the 16th-17th for a big rain but nothing to grab onto yet...PW building in the Gulf States with WAR circulation trying to draw this RH northeastward. 

In the meantime we have rain events prior to, around the 8th-9th and maybe the 12th-13th. 

Looks basically above normal temperature from today through the 20th in NYC unless someone see an interruption.  HI modeled into the mid 90s but that thats D9 EC which can be a little extreme hat far in advance. 

15 Straight AN Days from the GEFS:

[doncat]

Happy Labor day with an 85° high.

[Dan76]

Nicest night of the summer......figures,

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another fair and pleasant day. However, some rain is possible late Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures will remain below to near normal.

Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. The second half of the month could feature above to perhaps much above normal temperatures.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was -1.60 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.064 today.

On September 4 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.714 (RMM). The September 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.700 (RMM).

 

[psv88]

85 today. Beautiful day. 

[wdrag]

Warmer than normal yesterday at CP and apparently a pretty good chance of warmer than normal daily through the 22nd. Always a chance we can sneak in 1 or 2 cooler than normal. Others may see that cooler than normal episode?

Showery rains late Wed into Thu; More rain likely between the 13th-14th and then as I see it, 16th or 17th onward as northern edge of the PW sets up to our north and lays out from the central USA across our area. PW juicing down along the Gulf Coast under the ridge aloft.  We lay a cool front nearby, it will get wet again here sometime 16th-17th onward.