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September 2021


wdrag
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3 hours ago, mjr said:

September will end up with a mean temperature above 70, probably around 70.3. The Central Park thermometer

tried its best to make sure that it would not happen but the month ended one day too early. 

 

A few weeks ago someone was going to write a letter concerning the foliage issue to the powers that be. I wonder if anything

ever came of that. 

If I correctly recall the posted message, the letter had been sent and the regional headquarters was going to take a closer look. So far, nothing has changed at the Park.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and cooler. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 73°

Philadelphia: 71°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 71.0°; 15-Year: 72.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 72.6°; 15-Year: 74.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.9°; 15-Year: 75.1°

Dry but cool weather will continue through Friday.

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The last two days of September are averaging 63degs.(56/70), or -2.

Month to date is  71.0[1.4].       September will end at  70.4[+1.2]      September reached 10.03".

Reached 75* here yesterday in an up/down day.

First 10 days of October looking somewhat AN, but w/o any breakouts either way..... say 57/68 average for the period, versus 54/67, Normal.

Today:   66-71, nw. wind, p. cloudy.

56*(60%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.    After 3hrs. at 56*, 57* at 9am.     60* by 10am.     62* at Noon.    64* at 1pm.        67* at 3pm.       Reached 68* at 3:30pm.

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September 29th is the 2nd latest in the fall that HPN has dropped below 50°. It’s currently at 49°. All the top 5 latest dates have been since 2015.

Weather Conditions For:
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY. KHPN 
29 Sep 6:56 am   49

First/Last Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
2018 06-12 (2018) 49 10-12 (2018) 47 121
2017 06-09 (2017) 47 09-29 (2017) 47 111
2002 06-08 (2002) 48 09-29 (2002) 48 112
1970 05-30 (1970) 44 09-29 (1970) 42 121
1968 05-28 (1968) 46 09-29 (1968) 49 123
2005 05-25 (2005) 46 09-28 (2005) 46 125
2015 06-02 (2015) 48 09-27 (2015) 47 116
1980 06-14 (1980) 47 09-27 (1980) 44 104
2016 05-21 (2016) 48 09-25 (2016) 44 126
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22 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is now the wettest September on record at Newark. Wet September patterns in the past have been much cooler. So this will be the first in the top 5 wettest to average above 70°.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Avg  Temperature
1 2021 10.32 73.2°
2 1944 10.28 68.2°
3 1999 9.38 69.3°
4 1975 9.00 64.3°
5 1933 8.33 68.0°

How did the winters end up those years for Newark if you don’t mind telling me?

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So, nothing yet, but am on the edge of another thread.  This one like the 10+ Sept for longest monthly stretch of 10+, this one for 7 or 8+" of rain in October (teaming with the 3 prior months for a first time ever). Nothing in my stats on this but I think we're heading wet. It's not directly tropical related the first half of the month, more of a synoptic scale cool season batches of of heavy rain that may begin late this weekend through the 9th.  The second half off the month might be tropical related---long-long ways to go to gain some confidence.  I'll probably wait til Fri evening on this.  

I guess the only other thing i can say on this: These brief weather predicting icons of 5+ consec days of dry weather are unfair to the skill of our industry in the northeast USA. We're just not that good at predicting 5 gorgeous days in a row- barring a big anomalous stationary ridge aloft overhead.

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4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

So, nothing yet, but am on the edge of another thread.  This one like the 10+ Sept for longest monthly stretch of 10+, this one for 7 or 8+" of rain in October (teaming with the 3 prior months for a first time ever). Nothing in my stats on this but I think we're heading wet. It's not directly tropical related the first half of the month, more of a synoptic scale cool season batches of of heavy rain that may begin late this weekend through the 9th.  The second half off the month might be tropical related---long-long ways to go to gain some confidence.  I'll probably wait til Fri evening on this.  

I guess the only other thing i can say on this: These brief weather predicting icons of 5+ consec days of dry weather are unfair to the skill of our industry in the northeast USA. We're just not that good at predicting 5 gorgeous days in a row- barring a big anomalous stationary ridge aloft overhead.

yeah alot of times the models will show 7-10 days with little rain, but look at yesterday-that snuck up on us within 48 hrs

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Down to 50 last night, looks cooler through Saturday (10/2) before warming up Sun (10/3) and  Mon (10/4) could see last surge of near 80 degree warmth sneak in depending on clouds.  Cut off / ULL into next week before more ridging towards next weekend (10/8).

 

 

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1 hour ago, RippleEffect said:

How did the winters end up those years for Newark if you don’t mind telling me?

well 1933-34 was one of the coldest winters of all time and holds the record for the lowest minimum ever recorded in Central Park with a -15 on Feb 9th...there was a blizzard after Christmas and almost 30" of snow in February...1944-45 was very cold with average snow...1999-00 had one cold and snowy month starting mid January...otherwise terrible...1975-76 was cold but with below average snowfall...all four winters were la nina or a weak negative...2021 fits right in...we most likely will not see anything like a 1933-34 winter...1999-00 was a second year la nina but stronger than this year....1975-76 was a second year la nina but stronger...the average for the four of these winters would be an average winter...

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Five of our stations have already reached 50” of precipitation for the year.

 

Data for January 1, 2021 through September 29, 2021
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Total Precipitation 
NJ HARRISON COOP 54.25
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 51.96
NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 51.05
NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 50.37
NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 50.27
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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah alot of times the models will show 7-10 days with little rain, but look at yesterday-that snuck up on us within 48 hrs

I view (unfortunately) media is less about news now, and more about 'stories-drama'.  Weather information and giving the viewer-listener what they need to make informed decisions is lacking. We (the presenter) boil it down too what we think is of essence, omitting some of the alternate possibilities, especially beyond 5 days.

06z GEFS is showing impressive positive anomalies of qpf for a 10 day period beginning the 3rd in the northeast.  I can still see southward slippage, depending on northern stream into NNE and the location of the upper low between the Apps and Miss River.  I do 'think' we're going to see some flooding rains (a couple of overlapped decent events) somewhere between the Ohio Valley and mid-north Atlantic. 

 

Edit add: also this seems to be without any tropical cyclone contribution (first two weeks Oct).

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Long range ensembles seem to be better at seeing the ridges. It usually takes a while longer for the individual shortwaves that produce  the precipitation to show up. But we often see upper lows eventually getting stuck somewhere under strong blocks to our north.

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24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Long range ensembles seem to be better at seeing the ridges. It usually takes a while longer for the individual shortwaves that produce  the precipitation to show up. But we often see upper lows eventually getting stuck somewhere under strong blocks to our north.

Maybe a home brew storm to watch next week

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here's a statistical tidbit for September...todays low temp in Central Park was 54...lowest so far this month...if it stands it will be with these years that had a September minimum of 54 since 1960...

1960...

1982...

2002...

2010...

2016...

2017...

some great analogs for snow in there...

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7 hours ago, bluewave said:

September 29th is the 2nd latest in the fall that HPN has dropped below 50°. It’s currently at 49°. All the top 5 latest dates have been since 2015.

Weather Conditions For:
White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY. KHPN 
29 Sep 6:56 am   49

First/Last Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
2018 06-12 (2018) 49 10-12 (2018) 47 121
2017 06-09 (2017) 47 09-29 (2017) 47 111
2002 06-08 (2002) 48 09-29 (2002) 48 112
1970 05-30 (1970) 44 09-29 (1970) 42 121
1968 05-28 (1968) 46 09-29 (1968) 49 123
2005 05-25 (2005) 46 09-28 (2005) 46 125
2015 06-02 (2015) 48 09-27 (2015) 47 116
1980 06-14 (1980) 47 09-27 (1980) 44 104
2016 05-21 (2016) 48 09-25 (2016) 44 126

Think low was 48

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