September 2021

[bluewave]

Islip adds another 75° day to set the new September record.

 

MacArthur/ISP  PTSUNNY   75  61  61 W10      

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 75	Missing Count
1	2021	26	2
2	2005	25	0
3	2015	24	0
-	1980	24	0
4	2019	23	0
-	1998	23	0
5	2017	22	0
-	2007	22	0
6	2020	21	0
-	1968	21	0
7	1972	20	0

[Brian5671]

38 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Line looks like itll get knyc to 10”. 

might miss to the north (at least this batch)

[Snowlover11]

andd the summer of ****ery continues.  storms to my north, storms to my south.  perfect 7-10 split!

[nycwinter]

we need to get to 10 inches in the city  for the month we are so close....

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

we need to get to 10 inches in the city  for the month we are so close....

there's a couple cells over NYC hopefully one of them will drop the rain

-

looks like a little meso low over eastern PA on satellite

[SI Mailman]

Some loud thunder here.  Glad I'm off today.  

[CIK62]

Moving W to E

[MJO812]

Heavy rain here in Brooklyn

[winterwx21]

Had a few moderate downpours here with a few rumbles of thunder. Picked up about a quarter inch of rain.

[bluewave]

Radar indicating some small hail possible with the stronger storms on Long Island. OKX set a new daily mid-level lapse rate record. 

 

[Brian5671]

very little here-in b/w the two areas of rain

[psv88]

Getting split here. Thunderstorms north and south. Can hear the thunder but just light rain here

[donsutherland1]

With 0.25" rain through 12:08 pm, New York City's Central Park has now reached 10.01" rain for September. September is the record-breaking 3rd consecutive month with 10" or more rainfall. Records go back to 1869.

[psv88]

Big CTG strike nearby...wow

[nycwinter]

 

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

With 0.25" rain through 12:08 pm, New York City's Central Park has now reached 10.01" rain for September. September is the record-breaking 3rd consecutive month with 10" or more rainfall. Records go back to 1869.

we did it!!!!

[STORMANLI]

Yeah, that was a window-rattler.

Looks to be south of LIE , weat of 231

[nycwinter]

had a few lighting strikes here in upper manhattan...

[doncat]

0.13" here with some loud thunder earlier...10.37" for month.

[SACRUS]

Made it to 72 briefly as the sun poked out for about 25 mins closer to 1:30/2:00.  Cloudy again now , down to 68.

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With 0.25" rain through 12:08 pm, New York City's Central Park has now reached 10.01" rain for September. September is the record-breaking 3rd consecutive month with 10" or more rainfall. Records go back to 1869.

Absolutely disgusting.

Only thing worse would be that drought out west

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With 0.25" rain through 12:08 pm, New York City's Central Park has now reached 10.01" rain for September. September is the record-breaking 3rd consecutive month with 10" or more rainfall. Records go back to 1869.

I wonder if we'll get a couple tropical systems in October...can we go for 4 months?!?!?

[bluewave]

Getting 10” of rain each month from July to September is an impressive feat even in South Florida. Miami still hasn’t been able to pull it off. But several other stations have.

Monthly Total Precipitation for MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AP, FL
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jul	Aug	Sep	Season
1941	15.33	5.01	8.01	28.35
1939	13.85	11.34	6.70	31.89
1947	13.51	6.66	10.71	30.88
2002	12.76	6.55	6.48	25.79
2013	12.70	4.43	10.47	27.60
2017	12.45	8.57	14.97	35.99
1946	11.78	5.13	5.24	22.15
1985	11.23	11.88	8.59	31.70
1988	10.90	7.89	3.09	21.88
2019	10.54	15.74	3.25	29.53
2014	10.29	9.07	7.25	26.61
2020	10.26	7.44	10.92	28.62

 

Monthly Total Precipitation for MIAMI OPA LOCKA AP, FL
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jul	Aug	Sep	Season
2002	13.11	7.10	4.83	25.04
2014	12.97	8.45	8.88	30.30
2017	11.73	14.11	16.70	42.54
2009	11.53	7.87	9.74	29.14
2013	10.91	4.54	8.23	23.68
2004	10.26	10.88	12.60	33.74

 

Monthly Total Precipitation for MIAMI KENDALL TAMIAMI EXEC AP, FL
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jul	Aug	Sep	Season
2000	14.74	9.46	6.79	30.99
2006	14.16	9.10	6.21	29.47
2013	11.73	3.48	4.12	19.33
2014	10.92	4.82	5.84	21.58
2020	10.53	2.99	7.82	21.34
2001	10.22	8.74	13.52	32.48
2012	10.10	12.78	11.30	34.18

 

Monthly Total Precipitation for NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT, FL
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jul	Aug	Sep	Season
2006	12.16	11.60	7.50	31.26
2017	11.24	15.55	18.03	44.82
2015	10.15	2.78	6.75	19.68

[lee59]

At least in my area the amount of rain is a little deceiving. The reason I say that is we seem to get it all at once and then nothing for weeks. It is not like it has been raining day after day. My grass has actually turned brown in spots and needed water numerous times in the past few months. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

At least in my area the amount of rain is a little deceiving. The reason I say that is we seem to get it all at once and then nothing for weeks. It is not like it has been raining day after day. My grass has actually turned brown in spots and needed water numerous times in the past few months. 

I had almost no burnout here all spring/summer which is rare.  Never took out the lawn sprinkler even once

[lee59]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I had almost no burnout here all spring/summer which is rare.  Never took out the lawn sprinkler even once

Yea probably the case in a lot of areas. My area missed a lot of the thunderstorm activity that other areas would get.

[donsutherland1]

An area of showers and thundershowers moved through the region late this morning and early this afternoon. A total of 0.27" of rain fell in New York City's Central Park pushing the monthly rainfall total to 10.03". As a result, New York City has seen a record 3 consecutive months with 10" or more of rain. Records go back to 1869.

In addition, 10" or more of rain each month from July-September is unprecedented this far north. In 1894 and again in 1945, Downtown Charleston, SC (32.78°N) saw 10" or more of rain during this period. In 1946, Wilmington, NC (34.21°N) saw 10" or more of rain during this period. Then, in 2018, Dunn (4 NW), NC (35.31°N) recorded 10" or more during July, August, and September.

Year-to-date rainfall in New York City is now 51.96". That ranks 2021 as New York City's 33rd wettest year on record.

In the Northern Plains, today witnessed searing heat. The thermometer topped out at 98° at Bismarck, which surpassed the daily mark of 97° from 1905. This is also the latest 98° or above reading on record.

This evening, a few isolated showers and thundershowers are possible in parts of the region, but skies will clear. Tomorrow through Friday will feature plentiful sunshine and cool temperatures.

2021 remains on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

There is strong consensus on the long-range guidance that October will be an unseasonably warm month. The first half could feature much above normal readings in the Northern Plains into Central Canada. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas appear to be in line with a warmer to much warmer than normal October.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop during October.

The SOI was +36.90 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.474 today.

On September 26 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.081 (RMM). The September 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.823 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.1° above normal).

 

[Santa Claus]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I had almost no burnout here all spring/summer which is rare.  Never took out the lawn sprinkler even once

lol i hadn't thought about it until you mentioned it but you're right.  i don't think i've ever seen the lawns this green in summer

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

Yea probably the case in a lot of areas. My area missed a lot of the thunderstorm activity that other areas would get.

we've all had more than enough rain this year

my ideal yearly rainfall is 40 inches

[mjr]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

An area of showers and thundershowers moved through the region late this morning and early this afternoon. A total of 0.27" of rain fell in New York City's Central Park pushing the monthly rainfall total to 10.03". As a result, New York City has seen a record 3 consecutive months with 10" or more of rain. Records go back to 1869.

In addition, 10" or more of rain each month from July-September is unprecedented this far north. In 1894 and again in 1945, Downtown Charleston, SC (32.78°N) saw 10" or more of rain during this period. In 1946, Wilmington, NC (34.21°N) saw 10" or more of rain during this period. Then, in 2018, Dunn (4 NW), NC (35.31°N) recorded 10" or more during July, August, and September.

Year-to-date rainfall in New York City is now 51.96". That ranks 2021 as New York City's 33rd wettest year on record.

In the Northern Plains, today witnessed searing heat. The thermometer topped out at 98° at Bismarck, which surpassed the daily mark of 97° from 1905. This is also the latest 98° or above reading on record.

This evening, a few isolated showers and thundershowers are possible in parts of the region, but skies will clear. Tomorrow through Friday will feature plentiful sunshine and cool temperatures.

2021 remains on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

There is strong consensus on the long-range guidance that October will be an unseasonably warm month. The first half could feature much above normal readings in the Northern Plains into Central Canada. Overall, the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas appear to be in line with a warmer to much warmer than normal October.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop during October.

The SOI was +36.90 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.474 today.

On September 26 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.081 (RMM). The September 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.823 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.1° above normal).

 

September will end up with a mean temperature above 70, probably around 70.3. The Central Park thermometer

tried its best to make sure that it would not happen but the month ended one day too early. 

 

A few weeks ago someone was going to write a letter concerning the foliage issue to the powers that be. I wonder if anything

ever came of that. 

w 

[dmillz25]

56 here.