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September 2021


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The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(64/81), or +1.

Through midnight Central Park had 7.13".

62*(82%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast, blue patches.  P=1007.8mb.    Got to about 999.5mb.     64* at 9am.      66* at 10am.     69* at Noon.        71* at 1pm.       Reached 77* from 5pm-7pm.

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5.01 in the bucket just south of the heavier rains thankfully.  California feel the next 3 days before it warms up Sun (9/5)  which may remain cloudy then holiday Mon (9/6) into the low / mid 80s.  Cooler / near normal until 9/10and the subsequent week when ridging builds into the east and we warm back up and perhaps the next chance at heat / 90s .  Bet on wet and warm still looks good overall.

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Break in the heat following the historic rainfall and flooding. But looks like a temperature rebound by mid-September. Tough to sustain a cooler to near normal pattern for extended periods.

EPS

9-6 to 9-13

AF833311-C900-4291-B08B-7B0EE8F6953F.thumb.png.6f660b79fe9564b1b17cdf9784aa1ea2.png

9-13 to 9-20

53384453-7CBD-4DCF-B78F-4F219055EC1F.thumb.png.61c20f5d005bfc63d4f2ccdfba7884c3.png

Tropical threats likely to resume mid to late September as ridge builds back in. 

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This recent tropical event followed a similar path from LA to NY as the 1888 storm that lost its record to Henri's sideswipe rainstorm on Aug 21. That 1888 system dropped 4.31" at NYC. I wonder if there was a severe storm component with it, as it looks a bit more intense on historical weather maps. Track was very similar. 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Break in the heat following the historic rainfall and flooding. But looks like a temperature rebound by mid-September. Tough to sustain a cooler to near normal pattern for extended periods.

EPS

9-6 to 9-13

AF833311-C900-4291-B08B-7B0EE8F6953F.thumb.png.6f660b79fe9564b1b17cdf9784aa1ea2.png

9-13 to 9-20

53384453-7CBD-4DCF-B78F-4F219055EC1F.thumb.png.61c20f5d005bfc63d4f2ccdfba7884c3.png

Historically speaking dont we often see the end to extreme hot and humid regimes with explosive historic storms like what we just had?  Floyd 1999 comes to mind

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Break in the heat following the historic rainfall and flooding. But looks like a temperature rebound by mid-September. Tough to sustain a cooler to near normal pattern for extended periods.

EPS

9-6 to 9-13

AF833311-C900-4291-B08B-7B0EE8F6953F.thumb.png.6f660b79fe9564b1b17cdf9784aa1ea2.png

9-13 to 9-20

53384453-7CBD-4DCF-B78F-4F219055EC1F.thumb.png.61c20f5d005bfc63d4f2ccdfba7884c3.png

If you had to bet, have we seen the last of the 90s?

For NYC and JFK at least?

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In the wake of Ida's intense rainfall and devastating flooding, bright sunshine returned. The remainder of the week and weekend will feature abundant sunshine and cooler than normal readings.

Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was +2.74 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.499 today.

On August 31 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.182 (RMM). The August 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.481 (RMM).

 

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3 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

This recent tropical event followed a similar path from LA to NY as the 1888 storm that lost its record to Henri's sideswipe rainstorm on Aug 21. That 1888 system dropped 4.31" at NYC. I wonder if there was a severe storm component with it, as it looks a bit more intense on historical weather maps. Track was very similar. 

this newspaper acount has severe weather in Maryland...

22 Aug 1888, Page 3 - The Brooklyn Daily Eagle at Newspapers.com

The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, August 22, 1888, Image 1 « Chronicling America « Library of Congress (loc.gov)

severe in Salem NJ...

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The next 8 days are averaging 73degs.(65/81), or +2.

IDA's   total rain was:    7.13" + 0.10" = 7.23", Sept. 1-2.

61*(77%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.       63* by 9am.    68* by Noon.     72* by 2pm, but p. cloudy.        Reached 78* at 5pm.

9/7-9/18 might be able to slip in a 90 degree day.

Any Holiday rains should be mostly Sunday night?, just daytime clouds.

 

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Morning thoughts…

The morning has started out on a cool note. Through 7 am, low temperatures included: Islip: 57°; New York City: 59°; Newark: 60°; Poughkeepsie: 51°; and, White Plains: 53°.

Today will be partly to mostly sunny and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 73°

Newark: 77°

Philadelphia: 76°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 80.4°; 15-Year: 80.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 81.8°; 15-Year: 81.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.0°; 15-Year: 82.8°

A slow warmup could commence next week.

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