September 2021

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Vector disease ecologist here, and yeah NYC is definitely now in the subtropical category. The humid continental climate now begins just north of the city. This isn't anyone "re-defining" anything. Overnight low temperatures have increased dramatically. Our daytime highs is NOT where we have seen the most substantial increases. 

why is it so difficult to exterminate mosquitoes and drive them into extinction?  We find it so easy to drive desirable species to extinction why can't we actually make species we dont want to go extinct?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

I don't believe you are correct about the "Subtropics." Your statement about "scientific" predictions during the 1970s is pretty broad-brush and misleading too. 

depends on where you live.  Trust me where I live is the sub tropics and has been for years now

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Jeff Grann said:

The South is not subtropical by definition until you get past Central Florida. Nobody mentioned politics here. But if you think science isn't politically driven in 2021 I have a bridge to sell you in lower Manhattan. Science also predicted a cooling planet in the late 70's, warning of shorter growing seasons and world food shortages . Reality is we warmed and have record crop yields. Science is right until it's wrong. Has happened over and over throughout history.

California is running out of water and the "record" crop yields are being destroyed, ask any farmer in the midwest, they are leaving the industry in droves.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Rjay said:

Thanks.  It's all about data.  No one is wishing our climate into being warmer and more humid. 

certainly not I.....we should spend whatever it takes to take this accursed water vapor and either shift it to California or zoom it up into space and get rid of it.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, Rjay said:

Enough of this garbage.  Why does everything have to be political?  There are blizzards and even below zero temps in the south.  

I already know we're in a subtropical climate zone so I'm not even going to spend much time on this, here is a copy and paste of the first search result.

New York City, after years of being considered a humid continental climate, now sits within the humid subtropical climate zone. The classification requires that summers average above 72 degrees Fahrenheit — which New York's have had since 1927 — and for winter months to stay above 27 degrees Fahrenheit, on average.Jul 24, 2020

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Continuation of our new subtropical climate theme. The dew point at JFK reached 70° again today. This was the 64th day so far this year. All the top years for 70° or higher dew points have occurred since 2016.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=70&month=all&year=2021&dpi=100&_fmt=js

#1…..89 days….2018

#2….77 days…..2019

#3….68 days…..2016

#4….64 days…..2021…2020
 

 

Please help me create a black hole so we can suck up all this dirty humidity and send it to some other corner of the universe or another universe entirely.

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the super nino reset our climate

it was going warm and yucky anyway though

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, December 2015 going +13 was the big reset month. Each El Niño since 2002-2003 has added new changes to our climate. You can look back and see new patterns of extremes following the 2002-2003, 2004-2005, 2009-2010, and 2015-2016 events. So each global temperature jump creates a new type of baseline for us.

so how do WE reset it back? It seems like we need to do some tinkering with ENSO, on a large scale if we can develop the technology to alter ocean currents we should be able to stop these large ENSO swings from happening.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, binbisso said:

  true but conversely a 594dm  Ridge over the northeast in mid September Should have much warmer temperatures than in the mid to upper seventies for most of the region

it's that accursed upper level low and all the clouds that are responsible for that.  It's unbearable enough with all this high humidity.

Someone help me nuke the Atlantic Ocean please

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been our 2nd warmest mid-September on record.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
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Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 21	Missing Count
1	2005-09-21	74.7	0
2	2021-09-21	72.0	0
3	2017-09-21	71.6	0
-	1998-09-21	71.6	0
4	2018-09-21	71.5	0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
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Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 21	Missing Count
1	2005-09-21	77.9	0
2	2021-09-21	75.2	0
3	2017-09-21	74.1	0
-	1957-09-21	74.1	0
4	1998-09-21	73.9	0
5	2018-09-21	73.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
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Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 21	Missing Count
1	2005-09-21	75.9	0
2	2021-09-21	73.4	0
3	1971-09-21	73.3	0
4	2017-09-21	73.0	0
5	2018-09-21	72.7	0

How come 1983 isn't on this list?

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The SE flow will make this worse in places vulnerable to upslope on those winds. Pretty deep moist flow will be riding up those mountains and squeezing out heavy rain. Central PA especially in for a drenching along with probably the Poconos/Catskills. 

3-5 inches in the Poconos and 1-3 inches around here?

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, forkyfork said:

what's wrong with oaks and maples

allergies

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

The lack of cold air behind the cold front will still keep the September monthly minimums high. All our stations are currently near the warmest September minimums on record. Notice how stations like HPN and ISP haven’t fallen below 50° this month. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Sep
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Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	59	9
2	1910	57	0
3	2015	56	0
-	1921	56	0
4	2018	54	0
-	2017	54	0
-	2016	54	0
-	2010	54	0
-	2002	54	0
-	1982	54	0
-	1960	54	0
-	1891	54	0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
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Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	57	9
2	2015	54	0
3	2018	53	0
-	2002	53	0
-	1994	53	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
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Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	62	9
2	2010	59	0
3	2018	57	0
-	2016	57	0
4	2015	56	0
-	2012	56	0
-	2002	56	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
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Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	58	9
2	2015	56	0
3	2018	54	0
-	2017	54	0
-	2002	54	0
-	1994	54	0
-	1968	54	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Sep
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Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	52	9
2	2018	51	0
3	2008	48	0
-	2002	48	0
-	1999	48	2
-	1968	48	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
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Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	54	9
2	2015	52	0
3	2018	51	0

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Sep
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Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	48	9
2	2018	44	0
3	2015	42	0

 

Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Sep
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Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	48	10
2	1934	45	0
3	2018	44	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Sep
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Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	55	9
2	2018	52	0
3	2017	50	0
-	2015	50	0
-	2002	50	0
-	1977	50	0

 

 

it wont be cold per se but it will be dry low humidity and overnight lows in the 50s which will feel chilly

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, nycwinter said:

the asphalt at the airport makes the temps hotter then they would be anywhere else.. the offilcal temp should not be taken at the airport but somewhere else in the city..

since they are all taken at airports they should be comparable to each other

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and warm. Showers and thundershowers are possible. Heavier rain could arrive during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 77°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 73.5°; 15-Year: 74.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 75.1°; 15-Year: 76.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 76.3°; 15-Year: 77.4°

A moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is likely tonight through Friday. A general 1”-2” rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely. Parts of central Pennsylvania could see 3”-6” of rain.

[Jeff Grann]

7 hours ago, eduggs said:

I don't believe you are correct about the "Subtropics." Your statement about "scientific" predictions during the 1970s is pretty broad-brush and misleading too. 

I lived on Sanibel for 3 years. Worked with boat captains and Meteorologists. Being from NY I was fascinated by the different weather down there. It was made clear to me that Florida had a Subtropical climate from just below the Tampa Bay area . North of there was not due to the  continental influence on the weather. I saw the difference especially in overnight lows . As far as the 70's, I still have the Time Magazine that was devoted to ”The next ice age cometh"?. It was very clear how NOAA and the scientific community we're leaning back then.

[CIK62]

The last 8 days of September are averaging 71degs.(64/78), or +5.

Month to date is  72.0[+1.3].         September could end near  71.7[+2.5].

73*(97%RH) here at 6am, overcast.       75*(92%(RH) at 9am.          77*(87%RH) at Noon.        Reached 78* at 2pm.        Rain got here about 6pm.

Reached 79 here yesterday.

Today.  75-78, 1" to 2", s. wind to e. + gusty.

[Jeff Grann]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

California is running out of water and the "record" crop yields are being destroyed, ask any farmer in the midwest, they are leaving the industry in droves.

 

Doesn't change the fact that with the longer growing season the planet is experiencing record high food production. And as far as where you live there are still months of bare trees and frozen ground  incapable of anything growing. That is not subtropical no matter how you spin it

[Jeff Grann]

8 hours ago, eduggs said:

I don't believe you are correct about the "Subtropics."

Pure tropical climates are those in the Caribbean where temps are stable all year round 80- 90 by day/ 70-80 at night. So basically people here are broad brushing subtropical to the point that you are equating our yearly climate to South Florida which is absurd. You want to say we are experiencing stretches of S FL humidity...Have at it. But they don't get a cold frontal passage from mid June till October. Not 1 cool, dry day the entire Summer

[SACRUS]

9/22 (highs)

9/22

PHL: 84
New Brnswck: 84
EWR: 83
LGA: 83
TTN: 83
TEB: 82
ACY: 81
BLM: 80
JFK: 80
ISP: 80
NYC: 79
 

 

[BxEngine]

Nobody is broadbrushing anything. These are actual definitions. Thats it. 

[SACRUS]

 

Humid and front coming through today and into tomorrow making way for a third spectacular weekend and into early next week.  Next cold front comes through next week Wed 9/29.  By later next week eyes on what will be Hurricane Sam and the western Atlantic ridge building back and backing and bogging flow/traffic.  So we will likely see a progession

9/23-24  front rain

9/25 - 9/27: dry and splendid (mainy mid - upper 70s)

9/28 - 9/30 : front / bit cooler

10/1 - beyond: onshore / humid warm flow as Western Atl Ridge builds back west.

 

(what will likely be) Sam : around the southeast coast 9/30- 10/5(ish)

[JustinRP37]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why is it so difficult to exterminate mosquitoes and drive them into extinction?  We find it so easy to drive desirable species to extinction why can't we actually make species we dont want to go extinct?

 

It is difficult for a variety of reasons (not to mention a very bad idea). It is very difficult to target just a single type of insect. No matter how we do it, there are often non-target species that die off. In Florida they have released GMO mosquitos that will hopefully reduce the population. But more on the ecology side, we don’t want to make mosquitoes extinct. The larval stage feeds tons of amphibians and fish. They are quite beneficial to aquatic systems. We could work to control the larvae stage through fish, etc and many areas do this. You can stock a small pond with fish that will consume abundant larvae. The adult stage as well fed a variety of organisms. While we hate them, and believe me, I get bit aa ton, they are beneficial. Once disease starts spreading though, you Weill see health departments start spraying. NJ actually has one of the best mosquito programs in the country. 

[JustinRP37]

9 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

are there any mosquito diseases that cause a sudden onset of frequent heart palpitations, asking for a friend

its possible my rock and roll lifestyle is about to kill me but it would be a lot funnier if my habit of taking long nature walks is why i die in my sleep next week

That doesn’t sound good! Heart palpitations can be stress induced, but there is also Lyme carditis (https://www.cdc.gov/lyme/treatment/lymecarditis.html) to be on the look out for. Ticks are definitely responsible for more disease in our latitude than mosquitoes. It could also be that rock and roll lifestyle haha. But getting outside is still one of the healthiest things we can do. 

[FPizz]

11 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

They have been spotted there but no infestation yet 

https://nysipm.cornell.edu/environment/invasive-species-exotic-pests/spotted-lanternfly/

Give it 2 years...we went from only a few here 2 years ago to that being the most common bug I see.

[MJO812]

[bluewave]

Endless summer pattern continues with another top 10 warmest month around the area through the 22nd.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
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Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 22	Missing Count
1	1961-09-22	76.2	0
2	2005-09-22	75.9	0
3	2015-09-22	74.9	0
4	2016-09-22	74.5	0
-	1983-09-22	74.5	0
5	1971-09-22	74.2	0
6	2021-09-22	74.0	0
7	1980-09-22	73.8	0
8	2018-09-22	73.6	0
9	1989-09-22	73.5	0
-	1957-09-22	73.5	0
10	1947-09-22	73.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 22	Missing Count
1	2015-09-22	72.3	0
2	2005-09-22	72.2	0
3	2018-09-22	71.8	0
-	1980-09-22	71.8	0
4	1983-09-22	71.5	0
5	2016-09-22	71.4	0
6	2021-09-22	70.9	0
7	1998-09-22	70.4	0
8	1971-09-22	70.3	0
9	2008-09-22	68.9	0
10	1996-09-22	68.8	0

[SACRUS]

Dewpoint to 70 on strong SSE wind and some clearing ahead of the heavy rains later this moring/afternoon.

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

 

[Jeff Grann]

42 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Nobody is broadbrushing anything. These are actual definitions. Thats it. 

No. I gave you the dictionary definition of subtropical. We are not a region adjacent to the tropics. Unless you refine 1200 miles as adjacent.

[Jeff Grann]

Just now, Jeff Grann said:

No. I gave you the dictionary definition of subtropical. We are not a region adjacent to the tropics. Unless you refine 1200 miles as adjacent.

I'll just redefine the shoreline of the East Coast a desert. What the hell. ..The beaches are full of sand. There is nothing tropical, subtropical of any sort when you take our yearly average high/low temperature as the standard for our climate