September 2021

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

the super nino reset our climate

Yeah, December 2015 going +13 was the big reset month. Each El Niño since 2002-2003 has added new changes to our climate. You can look back and see new patterns of extremes following the 2002-2003, 2004-2005, 2009-2010, and 2015-2016 events. So each global temperature jump creates a new type of baseline for us.

[binbisso]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is such a warm pattern, that even a late September cold front won’t have much cold air behind it. 
 

 

  true but conversely a 594dm  Ridge over the northeast in mid September Should have much warmer temperatures than in the mid to upper seventies for most of the region

[Jeff Grann]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Continuation of our new subtropical climate theme. The dew point at JFK reached 70° again today. This was the 64th day so far this year. All the top years for 70° or higher dew points have occurred since 2016.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=70&month=all&year=2021&dpi=100&_fmt=js

#1…..89 days….2018

#2….77 days…..2019

#3….68 days…..2016

#4….64 days…..2021…2020
 

 

Subtropical? LOL. Let me know when Palm trees can survive a NYC Winter. Subtropical is not defined as Summer dews. It is a year round climate . 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

Subtropical? LOL. Let me know when Palm trees can survive a NYC Winter. Subtropical is not defined as Summer dews. It is a year round climate . 

We just shifted to a humid subtropical climate with the new 1991-2020 climate normals.

 

[rclab]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Continuation of our new subtropical climate theme. The dew point at JFK reached 70° again today. This was the 64th day so far this year. All the top years for 70° or higher dew points have occurred since 2016.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=70&month=all&year=2021&dpi=100&_fmt=js

#1…..89 days….2018

#2….77 days…..2019

#3….68 days…..2016

#4….64 days…..2021…2020
 

 

 

13 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

Subtropical? LOL. Let me know when Palm trees can survive a NYC Winter. Subtropical is not defined as Summer dews. It is a year round climate . 

 Good afternoon JG. Your post reaction is understandable, however there are nuances to the term. Palm trees may be a physical manifestation of tropical as are dews. We are experiencing sustained heightened dews in a calendar time and geographic locations that gives pause. BW, as many other fine posters in our sub forums neither hypes or sensationalizes. Data and demonstration of such is their deep throat. As always ….

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, binbisso said:

  true but conversely a 594dm  Ridge over the northeast in mid September Should have much warmer temperatures than in the mid to upper seventies for most of the region

This has been our 2nd warmest mid-September on record.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 21	Missing Count
1	2005-09-21	74.7	0
2	2021-09-21	72.0	0
3	2017-09-21	71.6	0
-	1998-09-21	71.6	0
4	2018-09-21	71.5	0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 21	Missing Count
1	2005-09-21	77.9	0
2	2021-09-21	75.2	0
3	2017-09-21	74.1	0
-	1957-09-21	74.1	0
4	1998-09-21	73.9	0
5	2018-09-21	73.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 21	Missing Count
1	2005-09-21	75.9	0
2	2021-09-21	73.4	0
3	1971-09-21	73.3	0
4	2017-09-21	73.0	0
5	2018-09-21	72.7	0

[doncat]

Flood watch extended...

[Rtd208]

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Jeff Grann said:

Subtropical? LOL. Let me know when Palm trees can survive a NYC Winter. Subtropical is not defined as Summer dews. It is a year round climate . 

There are actually several Palm species that can survive our winters. The most notable is the Windmill Palm. 
It’s the coldest lows that make the biggest difference. An average winter pre 1980s had a lowest temp averaging around 5. Recently it’s been more like 15.

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The SE flow will make this worse in places vulnerable to upslope on those winds. Pretty deep moist flow will be riding up those mountains and squeezing out heavy rain. Central PA especially in for a drenching along with probably the Poconos/Catskills. 

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There are actually several Palm species that can survive our winters. The most notable is the Windmill Palm. 
It’s the coldest lows that make the biggest difference. An average winter pre 1980s had a lowest temp averaging around 5. Recently it’s been more like 15.

Yeah, I have been seeing more Windmill Palms on Long Island. The key seems to be wrapping them in the winter. 
 

 

[forkyfork]

what's wrong with oaks and maples

[uncle W]

NYC average minimums...

1950-59...6.7...

1960-69...4.8...

1970-79...4.7...

1980-89...3.5...

1990-99...7.1...

2000-09...9.0...

2010-19...6.6...

last two years had a min of 14...

[donsutherland1]

Today was variably cloudy and unseasonably warm. The temperature rose into the upper 70s and lower 80s across much of the region. In addition, Central Park was poised to record its 50th 70° or above minimum temperature of the year. Even as New York City has had a mature urban footprint, the number of such days has increased in recent decades. The average figures for select 30 year periods are: 1971-00 was 33.7 days; 1981-10: 34.7 days; and, 1991-20: 39.0 days. During 1869-1999, Central Park registered 40 or more such days once every 5.5 years. Since 2000, it has seen 40 or more days every 1.6 years. The change in return time for 50 or more such days is even more dramatic. 1869-1999: Once every 26.2 years; 2000-21: Once every 3.1 years (would be once every 2.8 years if today's low temperature remains at or above 70°).

The potential exists for a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall from tonight through Friday. A widespread 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible. Areas to the north and west of Newark and New York City could see 1"-3" amounts with locally higher figures. Flash flooding is possible. Parts of the region could also experience some severe weather, especially tomorrow afternoon into early Friday.

The MJO has recently been locked in Phase 3 at a high amplitude, frequently in excess of 1.500. Only 2006 and 2009 saw the MJO in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 2 or more days during September 10-20. Both years saw September end with a cold shot that continued into the first days of October. Both days saw Central Park's temperature fall to 49° on September 30. A fairly sharp rebound in temperatures followed. October wound up wetter than normal with 7.07" rainfall in 2006 and 5.58" of rainfall in 2009. Normal rainfall (1991-2020) is 4.38".

Despite the guidance of a few days ago and a likely cold shot to end the month, 2021 is still on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Considering that the close of September is still more than 10 days out, the guidance can still reverse. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was +0.12 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.735 today.

On September 20 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.527 (RMM). The September 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.347 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.6° (1.4° above normal).

 

[Rmine1]

36 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what's wrong with oaks and maples

My dogwoods have taken a beating.

[Jeff Grann]

2 hours ago, rclab said:

 

 Good afternoon JG. Your post reaction is understandable, however there are nuances to the term. Palm trees may be a physical manifestation of tropical as are dews. We are experiencing sustained heightened dews in a calendar time and geographic locations that gives pause. BW, as many other fine posters in our sub forums neither hypes or sensationalizes. Data and demonstration of such is their deep throat. As always ….

Definition of subtropical: Relating to or characteristic of the regions adjacent to or bordering on the tropics........Unless you consider Central NJ the tropics, we are not a subtropical climate regardless of humid Summer's. The subtropics do not experience single digit temps or blizzards. Another example of redefining normally accepted definitions to push the world is ending agenda.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Jeff Grann said:

Definition of subtropical: Relating to or characteristic of the regions adjacent to or bordering on the tropics........Unless you consider Central NJ the tropics, we are not a subtropical climate regardless of humid Summer's. The subtropics do not experience single digit temps or blizzards. Another example of redefining normally accepted definitions to push the world is ending agenda.

There's no agenda, it's called reality. But too many people prefer to live in a fantasy world where science doesn't exist.

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, rclab said:

 

 Good afternoon JG. Your post reaction is understandable, however there are nuances to the term. Palm trees may be a physical manifestation of tropical as are dews. We are experiencing sustained heightened dews in a calendar time and geographic locations that gives pause. BW, as many other fine posters in our sub forums neither hypes or sensationalizes. Data and demonstration of such is their deep throat. As always ….

Thanks.  It's all about data.  No one is wishing our climate into being warmer and more humid. 

[Rjay]

23 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

Definition of subtropical: Relating to or characteristic of the regions adjacent to or bordering on the tropics........Unless you consider Central NJ the tropics, we are not a subtropical climate regardless of humid Summer's. The subtropics do not experience single digit temps or blizzards. Another example of redefining normally accepted definitions to push the world is ending agenda.

Enough of this garbage.  Why does everything have to be political?  There are blizzards and even below zero temps in the south.  

[JustinRP37]

Vector disease ecologist here, and yeah NYC is definitely now in the subtropical category. The humid continental climate now begins just north of the city. This isn't anyone "re-defining" anything. Overnight low temperatures have increased dramatically. Our daytime highs is NOT where we have seen the most substantial increases. 

[bluewave]

The minimum temperatures are rising more rapidly in the Hudson Valley and Northern NJ than NYC and Long Island. 
 

 

[IrishRob17]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The minimum temperatures are rising more rapidly in the Hudson Valley and Northern NJ than NYC and Long Island. 
 

 

I’ve lived in the Hudson Valley for 44 years now, even anecdotally it’s quite evident and there are plenty of records to back it up, sadly. 

[HailMan06]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

what's wrong with oaks and maples

Spotted lanternflies

[psv88]

24 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

Spotted lanternflies

They are the worst. Thankfully none on LI

[IrishRob17]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

They are the worst. Thankfully none on LI

They have been spotted there but no infestation yet 

https://nysipm.cornell.edu/environment/invasive-species-exotic-pests/spotted-lanternfly/

[Rtd208]

I think the SPC may upgrade our area to a slight risk when the new day 1 comes out overnight. We'll see.

[Santa Claus]

2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Vector disease ecologist here,

are there any mosquito diseases that cause a sudden onset of frequent heart palpitations, asking for a friend

its possible my rock and roll lifestyle is about to kill me but it would be a lot funnier if my habit of taking long nature walks is why i die in my sleep next week

[doncat]

80/70 temp split today.

[Jeff Grann]

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Enough of this garbage.  Why does everything have to be political?  There are blizzards and even below zero temps in the south.  

The South is not subtropical by definition until you get past Central Florida. Nobody mentioned politics here. But if you think science isn't politically driven in 2021 I have a bridge to sell you in lower Manhattan. Science also predicted a cooling planet in the late 70's, warning of shorter growing seasons and world food shortages . Reality is we warmed and have record crop yields. Science is right until it's wrong. Has happened over and over throughout history.

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

The South is not subtropical by definition until you get past Central Florida. Nobody mentioned politics here. But if you think science isn't politically driven in 2021 I have a bridge to sell you in lower Manhattan. Science also predicted a cooling planet in the late 70's, warning of shorter growing seasons and world food shortages . Reality is we warmed and have record crop yields. Science is right until it's wrong. Has happened over and over throughout history.

I don't believe you are correct about the "Subtropics." Your statement about "scientific" predictions during the 1970s is pretty broad-brush and misleading too.