wdrag Posted September 21, 2021 Author Share Posted September 21, 2021 Will look early Wed, at a possible SVR thread for Thursday. Usually need a secondary low on the front thru PA, s NYS. If that does not occur, QPF and associated SVR would probably be less than modeled. Have another great late summer day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Another crisp morning here, in the 50s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 67 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 The next big WAR amplification is in early October with the potential for a hurricane to be somewhere underneath. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The next big WAR amplification is in early October with the potential for a hurricane to be somewhere underneath. This is the kind of situation that is possible under some of the fairly ominous monthly 500 mb forecasts for October (and weekly forecasts going into October). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: The next big WAR amplification is in early October with the potential for a hurricane to be somewhere underneath. 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: This is the kind of situation that is possible under some of the fairly ominous monthly 500 mb forecasts for October (and weekly forecasts going into October). Fun tracking times ahead for sure. E coast may need to watch 98L/Sam down the road with that upper air map, should it come to fruition. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Euro and UKMET continue the heavy rains into Saturday since they have a stronger WAR than the CMC and GFS. I don't have access to the UKMET surface maps, but the Euro's appeared weaker at the surface over the last few runs. The 00z basically gets the rain through the metro around late morning on Friday. I'm just a casual lurker who mostly follows winter storms, so definitely outside my comfort zone. That said, curious what signals you see that would favor rain continuing into Saturday. I have a selfish reason for needing this rain to get out of here as soon as possible, so I am also biased and rooting hard for at least a model blend of the GFS/EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 hour ago, uofmiami said: Fun tracking times ahead for sure. E coast may need to watch 98L/Sam down the road with that upper air map, should it come to fruition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 36 years ago, Hurricane Gloria hit Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: 36 years ago, Hurricane Gloria hit Long Island. I was 36 when Gloria hit Long Island...the most hyped storm before the internet... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, TriPol said: 36 years ago, Hurricane Gloria hit Long Island. In 6 days 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 My cousin is getting married Friday in Spring Lake. Fortunately it's an indoor wedding but I still feel bad seeing that it could be a lousy day weather-wise. Any chance this potential rainfall shuts off by Thursday night or early Friday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 17 minutes ago, matt8204 said: My cousin is getting married Friday in Spring Lake. Fortunately it's an indoor wedding but I still feel bad seeing that it could be a lousy day weather-wise. Any chance this potential rainfall shuts off by Thursday night or early Friday morning? Spring Lake is beautiful Enjoy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 51 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Ridge over troubled waters pattern possibly. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: The ridge east of New England on the UKMET and Euro is just slightly stronger than the CMC. So the UKMET and Euro linger the convection into Saturday. Probably need a few more model cycles to pin down the exact timing of the front. Gotcha, appreciate the additional context. Getting married on Friday near Hudson, NY. Rooting VERY hard for a quicker solution to be realized. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 2 hours ago, rmo09001 said: Gotcha, appreciate the additional context. Getting married on Friday near Hudson, NY. Rooting VERY hard for a quicker solution to be realized. Congratulations. The 12z UKMET joined the CMC. Heaviest convection later Thursday into early Friday. The front keeps moving enough that both models are now dry for Saturday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Congratulations. The 12z UKMET joined the CMC. Heaviest convection later Thursday into early Friday. The front keeps moving enough that both models are now dry for Saturday. Saturday should be OK. Maybe a lingering shower in the morning?? The main activity will be later Thursday into Friday as you noted. I think a 1-3" rainfall w/embedded thunderstorms is still on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: Congratulations. The 12z UKMET joined the CMC. Heaviest convection later Thursday into early Friday. The front keeps moving enough that both models are now dry for Saturday. Yea they were way too slow moving even with the strong WAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Yea they were way too slow moving even with the strong WAR. The 592 dm height at Caribou today was one of the highest on record for so late in the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: Spring Lake is beautiful Enjoy Thanks! Looking forward to it. Might stay down there for the weekend if it clears up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 6 hours ago, jm1220 said: Ridge over troubled waters pattern possibly. I like the extended dry spell, let's get that here first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: This is the kind of situation that is possible under some of the fairly ominous monthly 500 mb forecasts for October (and weekly forecasts going into October). But let's remember that the chances for anything to happen here are extremely small. What usually happens is a storm into the SE or Gulf or even more likely out to sea, which is what's been happening this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: But let's remember that the chances for anything to happen here are extremely small. What usually happens is a storm into the SE or Gulf or even more likely out to sea, which is what's been happening this month. While true, the odds would be greater than climatology. Even indirect effects could produce flooding. Of course, what will likely become Sam could recurve if the pattern is still evolving. But there’s always the possibility of additional storms, as it has been a very active season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: While true, the odds would be greater than climatology. Even indirect effects could produce flooding. Of course, what will likely become Sam could recurve if the pattern is still evolving. But there’s always the possibility of additional storms, as it has been a very active season. That trajectory looked to me like a southern track. Do you think that splitting the two predominant tracks (SE/Gulf and out to sea/Bermuda), which would be Hatteras to New England may be more likely than, say, when we had Henri come up here in August? If so it looks like a first week of October window doesn't it, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Another 80° day at Newark as the endless summer pattern continues. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Missing Count 1 2015 118 0 2 1994 114 0 3 2016 113 0 - 1993 113 0 - 1991 113 0 4 2011 111 0 - 2010 111 0 5 1959 108 0 2021 108 102 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: Another 80° day at Newark as the endless summer pattern continues. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Missing Count 1 2015 118 0 2 1994 114 0 3 2016 113 0 - 1993 113 0 - 1991 113 0 4 2011 111 0 - 2010 111 0 5 1959 108 0 2021 108 102 Outside chance of getting 10 more days before cold weather finally comes in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 newark temps are inaccurate been that way all summer.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Outside chance of getting 10 more days before cold weather finally comes in? The potential for a few more 80° degree days showing up over the next week. KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 9/21/2021 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 WED 22| THU 23| FRI 24| SAT 25| SUN 26| MON 27| TUE 28|WED CLIMO N/X 67 81| 69 76| 61 75| 59 74| 59 81| 59 77| 59 75| 61 54 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxallannj Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Also at EWR we have a good chance of having the highest minimum temperature for the month of September Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 57 10 2 2015 54 0 3 2018 53 0 - 2002 53 0 - 1994 53 0 6 2016 51 0 - 2011 51 0 - 2010 51 0 - 2008 51 0 - 1968 51 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 Islip made it to 78° today. So this was the 21st day in September to reach 75° or warmer. It’s only 4 days behind the September all-time record. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 75 Missing Count 1 2005 25 0 2 2015 24 0 - 1980 24 0 3 2019 23 0 - 1998 23 0 4 2017 22 0 - 2007 22 0 5 2020 21 0 - 1968 21 0 2021 21 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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