September 2021

[lee59]

80 in Newark and I believe 76 in Central Park. So that should  mean most of the area was probably around 78.  It was a nice day, this morning felt great with the lower humidity.

[Santa Claus]

took a walk on the D&R canal for the first time since Ida.  it's a wreck.  soils and gravel are washed out in several places, plastic debris and trash wrapped around trees, foliage washed out.  mosquitos are rapacious.

[Rtd208]

5 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

It looks like the front continues to slow down on the 12Z GFS for mid/late week. We could pick up some decent rainfall (1-3") along with some thunderstorms. Does anyone have the Euro?

 

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro is 2-4” for the areas that get the best training along the stalled front. So the mesos will probably be heavier once we get within their best range. May be another set up where the HREF shows somebody going 5”+ around the region.

 

4 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Also looks to me like this is more of a Thursday into Friday event now.

I think @wdrag may have to start a storm specific thread in the next day or two for the late week event. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another partly to mostly sunny day. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s across the region.

The potential exists for a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall during the middle or latter part of the week. A widespread 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible. The timing remains somewhat uncertain.

Despite the guidance of a few days ago, 2021 is still on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Considering that the close of September is still more than 10 days out, the guidance can still reverse. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was +12.42 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.354 today.

On September 17 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.737 (RMM). The September 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.825 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.1° above normal).

 

[SACRUS]

9/19

EWR: 80
PHL: 80
JFK: 79
ACY: 79
New Brnswck: 79
LGA: 78
TTN: 77
TEB: 77
BLM: 76
ISP: 76
NYC: 76

[Rtd208]

The GFS is back showing a more progressive solution the last couple of runs for the mid/late week event, not buying that at all.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and pleasant. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 75°

Newark: 79°

Philadelphia: 79°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 74.7°; 15-Year: 75.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 76.3°; 15-Year: 77.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.5°; 15-Year: 78.4°

A moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is possible during the middle or latter part of the week. A general 0.50”-1.50” rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 68degs.(62/75), or +1.

Month to date is  72.1[+0.9].        Should be  70.8[+0.9] by the 28th.

Reached 79* here yesterday.

Today: 72-76, s.e. wind, p. sunny.

Rain late Wed to early Sat.?

66*(76%RH) here at 6am.         69* at 9am.       71* at 10am.         72* at Noon.        74* at 3pm.      75* at 4pm.       Reached 77* briefly at 5:30pm.

[rmo09001]

5 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

The GFS is back showing a more progressive solution the last couple of runs for the mid/late week event, not buying that at all.

Why’s that? Selfishly, I’m praying for the GFS to be right, or at least a outcome that is more progressive than what the Canadian/Euro show. I’ll take middle of the road :)

[lee59]

57 degrees this morning. Looks like fall is easing its way in pretty much on schedule.

[bluewave]

Following the briefly lower dew points, 70° dew points will return ahead of the cutoff low this week.

 

[ForestHillWx]

53 currently, refreshing morning.

[tdp146]

On 9/18/2021 at 4:07 AM, Will - Rutgers said:

did anyone else notice that the fireflies quit early this year?

i seem to remember a few years back they were swarming well into October due to warm moist weather.  i might've thought they'd do the same this year if you told me the weather ahead of time, but i haven't seen them in several weeks, well back into mid-August.

 

I was thinking about this old thread the other day too. I have noticed much less of a lightning bug season this year around here as well. I wonder if it is just more a natural ebb and flow in the population and less about the weather. 

[SACRUS]

 

Easterly flow

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

[bluewave]

The 12z NAM joins the slower models with cutoff and cold front later in the week as the WAR builds to record levels for late September over Newfoundland on Tuesday.

[LibertyBell]

On 9/19/2021 at 10:37 AM, bluewave said:

We’ll see if the JMA is correct about that pattern locking in for October.

So we'll go back to warm weather in early October?

 

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 12z NAM joins the slower models with cutoff and cold front later in the week as the WAR builds to record levels for late September over Newfoundland on Tuesday.

what happened to the WAR keeping rain away and giving us warm and sunny weather like it does in the summer

 

[nycwinter]

5 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

53 currently, refreshing morning.

dewpoint is higher then it was in the city yesterday.. does not feel refreshing to me,,

[Brian5671]

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what happened to the WAR keeping rain away and giving us warm and sunny weather like it does in the summer

 

it is outside of a front passage that may not even get here til Friday at this point

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

it is outside of a front passage that may not even get here til Friday at this point

edit-new euro is so slow it rains Saturday now

[Rtd208]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

edit-new euro is so slow it rains Saturday now

While the Euro does have a bit of a slow bias versus the GFS being to progressive at times this does increase the likelihood of heavy rain IMO. 

[forkyfork]

back the front up

 

[forkyfork]

the nam is useless until close in because a critical piece of the blocking pattern is outside its domain. it's going to be too fast with the front

 

[ForestHillWx]

5 hours ago, nycwinter said:

dewpoint is higher then it was in the city yesterday.. does not feel refreshing to me,,

I live 45 miles west of the city; my ID is deceiving. I lived on Forest Hill road growing up. Maybe I should update. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another partly sunny and pleasant day. Temperatures will again rise well into the 70s in much of the region.

The potential exists for a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall during the middle or latter part of the week. A widespread 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible. The timing still remains somewhat uncertain.

The MJO has recently been locked in Phase 3 at a high amplitude, frequently in excess of 1.500. Only 2006 and 2009 saw the MJO in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 2 or more days during September 10-20. Both years saw September end with a cold shot that continued into the first days of October. Both days saw Central Park's temperature fall to 49° on September 30. October wound up wetter than normal with 7.07" rainfall in 2006 and 5.58" of rainfall in 2009. Normal rainfall (1991-2020) is 4.38".

Despite the guidance of a few days ago and a likely cold shot to end the month, 2021 is still on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Considering that the close of September is still more than 10 days out, the guidance can still reverse. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was +8.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.118 today.

On September 18 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.466 (RMM). The September 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.735 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.1° above normal).

 

[Tekken_Guy]

The 00Z GFS still seems to be an outlier with the timing of the rainfall event.  Going for a Thursday event while other models have pushed it back to overnight into Friday.

[Rtd208]

33 minutes ago, Tekken_Guy said:

The 00Z GFS still seems to be an outlier with the timing of the rainfall event.  Going for a Thursday event while other models have pushed it back to overnight into Friday.

The GFS is still a bit to progressive IMO although it has slowed from earlier runs. I also expect the models to come in a bit wetter as we get closer.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

The GFS is still a bit to progressive IMO although it has slowed from earlier runs. I also expect the models to come in a bit wetter as we get closer.

It would absolutely suck if the rain extended into Saturday

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 70degs.(63/77), or +5.

Month to date is  72.0[+1.0].        Should be 70.6[+1.0] by the 29th.(asjusted).

Today:  72-75, p. cloudy, e. wind.

1" to 2" during Thurs/Fri. period.

EURO goes ballistic with the ULL at the end of the month and gives us 6"!!!.      GFS is a pimple.  lol

Reached 77* briefly, here yesterday.

66*(77%RH) here at 6am.       69* at 9am.           77* by 3pm.        79* at 4pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and pleasant. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 74°

Newark: 77°

Philadelphia: 79°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 74.3°; 15-Year: 75.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 75.9°; 15-Year: 77.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.1°; 15-Year: 78.1°

A moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is possible during the middle or latter part of the week. A general 0.50”-1.50” rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely.