donsutherland1 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 3 hours ago, mjr said: September will end up with a mean temperature above 70, probably around 70.3. The Central Park thermometer tried its best to make sure that it would not happen but the month ended one day too early. A few weeks ago someone was going to write a letter concerning the foliage issue to the powers that be. I wonder if anything ever came of that. w If I correctly recall the posted message, the letter had been sent and the regional headquarters was going to take a closer look. So far, nothing has changed at the Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and cooler. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 71° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 71.0°; 15-Year: 72.3° Newark: 30-Year: 72.6°; 15-Year: 74.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 73.9°; 15-Year: 75.1° Dry but cool weather will continue through Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 53 degrees here and still falling slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 47( windows are wide open. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 Would not be surprised to see some frost in the northern and western areas over the next day or two. Some temperatures in the 30s this morning in the Catskills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 The last two days of September are averaging 63degs.(56/70), or -2. Month to date is 71.0[1.4]. September will end at 70.4[+1.2] September reached 10.03". Reached 75* here yesterday in an up/down day. First 10 days of October looking somewhat AN, but w/o any breakouts either way..... say 57/68 average for the period, versus 54/67, Normal. Today: 66-71, nw. wind, p. cloudy. 56*(60%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. After 3hrs. at 56*, 57* at 9am. 60* by 10am. 62* at Noon. 64* at 1pm. 67* at 3pm. Reached 68* at 3:30pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 September 29th is the 2nd latest in the fall that HPN has dropped below 50°. It’s currently at 49°. All the top 5 latest dates have been since 2015. Weather Conditions For: White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY. KHPN 29 Sep 6:56 am 49 First/Last Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2018 06-12 (2018) 49 10-12 (2018) 47 121 2017 06-09 (2017) 47 09-29 (2017) 47 111 2002 06-08 (2002) 48 09-29 (2002) 48 112 1970 05-30 (1970) 44 09-29 (1970) 42 121 1968 05-28 (1968) 46 09-29 (1968) 49 123 2005 05-25 (2005) 46 09-28 (2005) 46 125 2015 06-02 (2015) 48 09-27 (2015) 47 116 1980 06-14 (1980) 47 09-27 (1980) 44 104 2016 05-21 (2016) 48 09-25 (2016) 44 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 59 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 22 hours ago, bluewave said: This is now the wettest September on record at Newark. Wet September patterns in the past have been much cooler. So this will be the first in the top 5 wettest to average above 70°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Avg Temperature 1 2021 10.32 73.2° 2 1944 10.28 68.2° 3 1999 9.38 69.3° 4 1975 9.00 64.3° 5 1933 8.33 68.0° How did the winters end up those years for Newark if you don’t mind telling me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 got down to 47 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 Down to 52.3 here, 55 now in Central Park. Seems to be a little chillier than what was forecast this A.M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 Made it down to 56 at my station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 No cold air in sight for October. Probably won't see a BN day after this week till November. Delayed frost and leaf change guaranteed though a sneaky late October snowfall wouldn't shock me. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 29, 2021 Author Share Posted September 29, 2021 So, nothing yet, but am on the edge of another thread. This one like the 10+ Sept for longest monthly stretch of 10+, this one for 7 or 8+" of rain in October (teaming with the 3 prior months for a first time ever). Nothing in my stats on this but I think we're heading wet. It's not directly tropical related the first half of the month, more of a synoptic scale cool season batches of of heavy rain that may begin late this weekend through the 9th. The second half off the month might be tropical related---long-long ways to go to gain some confidence. I'll probably wait til Fri evening on this. I guess the only other thing i can say on this: These brief weather predicting icons of 5+ consec days of dry weather are unfair to the skill of our industry in the northeast USA. We're just not that good at predicting 5 gorgeous days in a row- barring a big anomalous stationary ridge aloft overhead. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, wdrag said: So, nothing yet, but am on the edge of another thread. This one like the 10+ Sept for longest monthly stretch of 10+, this one for 7 or 8+" of rain in October (teaming with the 3 prior months for a first time ever). Nothing in my stats on this but I think we're heading wet. It's not directly tropical related the first half of the month, more of a synoptic scale cool season batches of of heavy rain that may begin late this weekend through the 9th. The second half off the month might be tropical related---long-long ways to go to gain some confidence. I'll probably wait til Fri evening on this. I guess the only other thing i can say on this: These brief weather predicting icons of 5+ consec days of dry weather are unfair to the skill of our industry in the northeast USA. We're just not that good at predicting 5 gorgeous days in a row- barring a big anomalous stationary ridge aloft overhead. yeah alot of times the models will show 7-10 days with little rain, but look at yesterday-that snuck up on us within 48 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 Down to 50 last night, looks cooler through Saturday (10/2) before warming up Sun (10/3) and Mon (10/4) could see last surge of near 80 degree warmth sneak in depending on clouds. Cut off / ULL into next week before more ridging towards next weekend (10/8). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 Beautiful outside 58 I'm still wearing shorts lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 1 hour ago, RippleEffect said: How did the winters end up those years for Newark if you don’t mind telling me? well 1933-34 was one of the coldest winters of all time and holds the record for the lowest minimum ever recorded in Central Park with a -15 on Feb 9th...there was a blizzard after Christmas and almost 30" of snow in February...1944-45 was very cold with average snow...1999-00 had one cold and snowy month starting mid January...otherwise terrible...1975-76 was cold but with below average snowfall...all four winters were la nina or a weak negative...2021 fits right in...we most likely will not see anything like a 1933-34 winter...1999-00 was a second year la nina but stronger than this year....1975-76 was a second year la nina but stronger...the average for the four of these winters would be an average winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 Five of our stations have already reached 50” of precipitation for the year. Data for January 1, 2021 through September 29, 2021Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NJ HARRISON COOP 54.25 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 51.96 NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 51.05 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 50.37 NJ WEST CALDWELL TWP 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 50.27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 29, 2021 Author Share Posted September 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: yeah alot of times the models will show 7-10 days with little rain, but look at yesterday-that snuck up on us within 48 hrs I view (unfortunately) media is less about news now, and more about 'stories-drama'. Weather information and giving the viewer-listener what they need to make informed decisions is lacking. We (the presenter) boil it down too what we think is of essence, omitting some of the alternate possibilities, especially beyond 5 days. 06z GEFS is showing impressive positive anomalies of qpf for a 10 day period beginning the 3rd in the northeast. I can still see southward slippage, depending on northern stream into NNE and the location of the upper low between the Apps and Miss River. I do 'think' we're going to see some flooding rains (a couple of overlapped decent events) somewhere between the Ohio Valley and mid-north Atlantic. Edit add: also this seems to be without any tropical cyclone contribution (first two weeks Oct). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 3 hours ago, dmillz25 said: 56 here. Hit a low of 53 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 Long range ensembles seem to be better at seeing the ridges. It usually takes a while longer for the individual shortwaves that produce the precipitation to show up. But we often see upper lows eventually getting stuck somewhere under strong blocks to our north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: Long range ensembles seem to be better at seeing the ridges. It usually takes a while longer for the individual shortwaves that produce the precipitation to show up. But we often see upper lows eventually getting stuck somewhere under strong blocks to our north. Maybe a home brew storm to watch next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 here's a statistical tidbit for September...todays low temp in Central Park was 54...lowest so far this month...if it stands it will be with these years that had a September minimum of 54 since 1960... 1960... 1982... 2002... 2010... 2016... 2017... some great analogs for snow in there... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 70 degrees here, and it feels great with the dewpoint in the low 40s. Perfect Fall day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: 70 degrees here, and it feels great with the dewpoint in the low 40s. Perfect Fall day. It could stay like this till Thanksgiving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Beautiful outside 58 I'm still wearing shorts lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 You can see the ULL closing off and heading south and by the looks of it, tomorrow looks mostly cloudy vs some more optimistic forecasts, https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 7 hours ago, bluewave said: September 29th is the 2nd latest in the fall that HPN has dropped below 50°. It’s currently at 49°. All the top 5 latest dates have been since 2015. Weather Conditions For: White Plains - Westchester County Airport, NY. KHPN 29 Sep 6:56 am 49 First/Last Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2018 06-12 (2018) 49 10-12 (2018) 47 121 2017 06-09 (2017) 47 09-29 (2017) 47 111 2002 06-08 (2002) 48 09-29 (2002) 48 112 1970 05-30 (1970) 44 09-29 (1970) 42 121 1968 05-28 (1968) 46 09-29 (1968) 49 123 2005 05-25 (2005) 46 09-28 (2005) 46 125 2015 06-02 (2015) 48 09-27 (2015) 47 116 1980 06-14 (1980) 47 09-27 (1980) 44 104 2016 05-21 (2016) 48 09-25 (2016) 44 126 Think low was 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted September 29, 2021 Share Posted September 29, 2021 In Lindenhurst, It seems I’ll finish the month with exactly 5.6” of rain. Low was 53 last night, the coldest of the month so far. We hit 39 for the low here in Albany by comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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