September 2021

[wdrag]

Will look early Wed, at a possible  SVR thread for Thursday. Usually need a secondary low on the front thru PA, s NYS. If that does not occur, QPF and associated SVR would probably be less than modeled.  Have another great late summer day. 

[lee59]

Another crisp morning here, in the 50s

[MJO812]

67 here

[bluewave]

The next big WAR amplification is in early October with the potential for a hurricane to be somewhere underneath.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The next big WAR amplification is in early October with the potential for a hurricane to be somewhere underneath.

This is the kind of situation that is possible under some of the fairly ominous monthly 500 mb forecasts for October (and weekly forecasts going into October).

[uofmiami]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The next big WAR amplification is in early October with the potential for a hurricane to be somewhere underneath.

 

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is the kind of situation that is possible under some of the fairly ominous monthly 500 mb forecasts for October (and weekly forecasts going into October).

Fun tracking times ahead for sure.  E coast may need to watch 98L/Sam down the road with that upper air map, should it come to fruition. 

[rmo09001]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro and UKMET continue the heavy rains into Saturday since they have a stronger WAR than the CMC and GFS. 
 

 

I don't have access to the UKMET surface maps, but the Euro's appeared weaker at the surface over the last few runs. The 00z basically gets the rain through the metro around late morning on Friday. I'm just a casual lurker who mostly follows winter storms, so definitely outside my comfort zone. That said, curious what signals you see that would favor rain continuing into Saturday.

I have a selfish reason for needing this rain to get out of here as soon as possible, so I am also biased and rooting hard for at least a model blend of the GFS/EURO

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

 

Fun tracking times ahead for sure.  E coast may need to watch 98L/Sam down the road with that upper air map, should it come to fruition. 

 

[TriPol]

36 years ago, Hurricane Gloria hit Long Island.

[uncle W]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

36 years ago, Hurricane Gloria hit Long Island.

I was 36 when Gloria hit Long Island...the most hyped storm before the internet...

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, TriPol said:

36 years ago, Hurricane Gloria hit Long Island.

In 6 days

[matt8204]

My cousin is getting married Friday in Spring Lake.  Fortunately it's an indoor wedding but I still feel bad seeing that it could be a lousy day weather-wise.  Any chance this potential rainfall shuts off by Thursday night or early Friday morning?

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

My cousin is getting married Friday in Spring Lake.  Fortunately it's an indoor wedding but I still feel bad seeing that it could be a lousy day weather-wise.  Any chance this potential rainfall shuts off by Thursday night or early Friday morning?

Spring Lake is beautiful 

Enjoy 

[jm1220]

51 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

 

Ridge over troubled waters pattern possibly. 

[rmo09001]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ridge east of New England on the UKMET and Euro is just slightly stronger than the CMC. So the UKMET and Euro linger the convection into Saturday. Probably need a few more model cycles to pin down the exact timing of the front.

Gotcha, appreciate the additional context. Getting married on Friday near Hudson, NY. Rooting VERY hard for a quicker solution to be realized.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, rmo09001 said:

Gotcha, appreciate the additional context. Getting married on Friday near Hudson, NY. Rooting VERY hard for a quicker solution to be realized.

Congratulations. The 12z UKMET joined the CMC. Heaviest convection later Thursday into early Friday. The front keeps moving enough that both models are now dry for Saturday.

[Rtd208]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Congratulations. The 12z UKMET joined the CMC. Heaviest convection later Thursday into early Friday. The front keeps moving enough that both models are now dry for Saturday.

Saturday should be OK. Maybe a lingering shower in the morning?? The main activity will be later Thursday into Friday as you noted. I think a 1-3" rainfall w/embedded thunderstorms is still on the table.

[SnoSki14]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Congratulations. The 12z UKMET joined the CMC. Heaviest convection later Thursday into early Friday. The front keeps moving enough that both models are now dry for Saturday.

Yea they were way too slow moving even with the strong WAR.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yea they were way too slow moving even with the strong WAR.

The 592 dm height at Caribou today was one of the highest on record for so late in the season.

 

[matt8204]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Spring Lake is beautiful 

Enjoy 

Thanks!  Looking forward to it.  Might stay down there for the weekend if it clears up.  

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Ridge over troubled waters pattern possibly. 

I like the extended dry spell, let's get that here first.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is the kind of situation that is possible under some of the fairly ominous monthly 500 mb forecasts for October (and weekly forecasts going into October).

But let's remember that the chances for anything to happen here are extremely small.  What usually happens is a storm into the SE or Gulf or even more likely out to sea, which is what's been happening this month.

 

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But let's remember that the chances for anything to happen here are extremely small.  What usually happens is a storm into the SE or Gulf or even more likely out to sea, which is what's been happening this month.

 

While true, the odds would be greater than climatology. Even indirect effects could produce flooding. Of course, what will likely become Sam could recurve if the pattern is still evolving. But there’s always the possibility of additional storms, as it has been a very active season.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

While true, the odds would be greater than climatology. Even indirect effects could produce flooding. Of course, what will likely become Sam could recurve if the pattern is still evolving. But there’s always the possibility of additional storms, as it has been a very active season.

That trajectory looked to me like a southern track.  Do you think that splitting the two predominant tracks (SE/Gulf and out to sea/Bermuda), which would be Hatteras to New England may be more likely than, say, when we had Henri come up here in August?  If so it looks like a first week of October window doesn't it, Don?

 

[bluewave]

Another 80° day at Newark as the endless summer pattern continues.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80	Missing Count
1	2015	118	0
2	1994	114	0
3	2016	113	0
-	1993	113	0
-	1991	113	0
4	2011	111	0
-	2010	111	0
5	1959	108	0
	2021	108	102

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another 80° day at Newark as the endless summer pattern continues.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80	Missing Count
1	2015	118	0
2	1994	114	0
3	2016	113	0
-	1993	113	0
-	1991	113	0
4	2011	111	0
-	2010	111	0
5	1959	108	0
	2021	108	102

Outside chance of getting 10 more days before cold weather finally comes in?

 

[nycwinter]

newark temps are inaccurate  been that way all summer..

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Outside chance of getting 10 more days before cold weather finally comes in?

 

The potential for a few more 80° degree days showing up over the next week.

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/21/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      WED 22| THU 23| FRI 24| SAT 25| SUN 26| MON 27| TUE 28|WED CLIMO
 N/X  67  81| 69  76| 61  75| 59  74| 59  81| 59  77| 59  75| 61 54 72

[wxallannj]

Also at EWR we have a good chance of having the highest minimum temperature for the month of September

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	57	10
2	2015	54	0
3	2018	53	0
-	2002	53	0
-	1994	53	0
6	2016	51	0
-	2011	51	0
-	2010	51	0
-	2008	51	0
-	1968	51	0

 

[bluewave]

Islip made it to 78° today. So this was the 21st day in September to reach 75° or warmer. It’s only 4 days behind the September all-time record.
 

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 75	Missing Count
1	2005	25	0
2	2015	24	0
-	1980	24	0
3	2019	23	0
-	1998	23	0
4	2017	22	0
-	2007	22	0
5	2020	21	0
-	1968	21	0
	2021	21	9