September 2021

[forkyfork]

sunny and upper 70s at 1030 am. another toothless backdoor front

[KEITH L.I]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

That was the kind of extreme event that probably won’t recur for at least a few years.

Warmer than normal temps in October are 70's and some low 80's. A way above normal day you might approach 90, however they are rare

[bluewave]

Another 80° day at Newark.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80	Missing Count
1	2015	118	0
2	1994	114	0
3	2016	113	0
-	1993	113	0
-	1991	113	0
4	2011	111	0
-	2010	111	0
5	1959	108	0
6	2007	106	0
7	2005	105	0
8	2002	104	0
9	1990	103	0
-	1957	103	0
	2021	103	109

[guinness77]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Another 80° day at Newark.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80	Missing Count
1	2015	118	0
2	1994	114	0
3	2016	113	0
-	1993	113	0
-	1991	113	0
4	2011	111	0
-	2010	111	0
5	1959	108	0
6	2007	106	0
7	2005	105	0
8	2002	104	0
9	1990	103	0
-	1957	103	0
	2021	103	109

8 of those 14 years are in the last 20 years…I’m sure that’s just a coincidence. 

 

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

8 of those 14 years are in the last 20 years…I’m sure that’s just a coincidence. 

 

The other impressive 80° day statistic for Newark is how early the first 80° of the year has been arriving. The 2-21 -18 earliest is one of the more extreme high temperature records that our area has seen in recent years. 5 of the top 10 earliest have occurred since 2011. But the cooler recent Novembers relative to the rest of the fall hasn’t allowed any late 80° records to be challenged recently.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
2018	02-21 (2018)	80	10-11 (2018)	81	231
2016	03-09 (2016)	82	10-19 (2016)	87	223
1990	03-13 (1990)	86	10-14 (1990)	83	214
1945	03-16 (1945)	81	10-19 (1945)	82	216
2011	03-18 (2011)	80	10-10 (2011)	85	205
2020	03-20 (2020)	80	09-28 (2020)	81	191
1938	03-22 (1938)	80	10-17 (1938)	90	208
2021	03-26 (2021)	84	-	-	-
1998	03-27 (1998)	84	09-27 (1998)	91	183
2007	03-27 (2007)	80	10-23 (2007)	80	209
1989	03-28 (1989)	83	10-16 (1989)	80	201

 

[doncat]

As far as 70+ degree mins so far... my station has recorded 39 days...record is 41 days last set last year, none so far in Sept.

[uncle W]

1962-65 had less than 20 days with a min of 70 or higher...only 8 in 1962...1992 had 14...the last time Central Park had less than 20...in the 1960's 30 or more would be a lot...now 30 is a low number...

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

That was the kind of extreme event that probably won’t recur for at least a few years.

I remember it affected at least the entire eastern half of the country.....it felt like the middle of summer.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

1962-65 had less than 20 days with a min of 70 or higher...only 8 in 1962...1992 had 14...the last time Central Park had less than 20...in the 1960's 30 or more would be a lot...now 30 is a low number...

1992 was one of the coldest and wettest summers I can remember- Pinatubo influenced?

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The other impressive 80° day statistic for Newark is how early the first 80° of the year has been arriving. The 2-21 -18 earliest is one of the more extreme high temperature records that our area has seen in recent years. 5 of the top 10 earliest have occurred since 2011. But the cooler recent Novembers relative to the rest of the fall hasn’t allowed any late 80° records to be challenged recently.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
2018	02-21 (2018)	80	10-11 (2018)	81	231
2016	03-09 (2016)	82	10-19 (2016)	87	223
1990	03-13 (1990)	86	10-14 (1990)	83	214
1945	03-16 (1945)	81	10-19 (1945)	82	216
2011	03-18 (2011)	80	10-10 (2011)	85	205
2020	03-20 (2020)	80	09-28 (2020)	81	191
1938	03-22 (1938)	80	10-17 (1938)	90	208
2021	03-26 (2021)	84	-	-	-
1998	03-27 (1998)	84	09-27 (1998)	91	183
2007	03-27 (2007)	80	10-23 (2007)	80	209
1989	03-28 (1989)	83	10-16 (1989)	80	201

 

1993 should be on that list!  We hit 80 on November 15th the day after the marathon and we all know how that winter turned out ;-)

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, guinness77 said:

8 of those 14 years are in the last 20 years…I’m sure that’s just a coincidence. 

 

also the fact that we've had 19 landfalling tropical systems in the last 17 months, when we average about 4 a year lol

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

1993 should be on that list!  We hit 80 on November 15th the day after the marathon and we all know how that winter turned out ;-)

 

Yeah, 1993 was the latest 80° day on record at Newark.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
1993	04-20 (1993)	80	11-15 (1993)	80	208
1948	05-10 (1948)	87	11-06 (1948)	80	179
2003	04-15 (2003)	81	11-03 (2003)	81	201

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of the week in the Middle Atlantic region. Temperatures will push toward 90° in Philadelphia and the middle and upper 80s in New York City and Newark. A shower or thunderstorm is possible late in the day or at night as a weak cold front crosses the region.

The latest ensemble guidance has backed off the development of a sustained PNA- near or just after mid-September. A sustained PNA- typically sees a higher frequency of large rainfall (1" or more daily precipitation) in and around the New York City area during September. The current AO+/PNA+ pattern favors more frequent but smaller precipitation events often resulting from frontal passages rather than organized systems.

A warm September outcome remains on track. Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days (for example, the 9/1-7 anomaly was -2.5° in New York City and the 9/1-10 anomaly was -1.6° in New York City), September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. The second half of the month could feature above to perhaps much above normal temperatures. As a result, 2021 is increasingly likely to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was +14.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.584 today.

On September 12 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.603 (RMM). The September 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.417 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (1.8° above normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

1993 should be on that list!  We hit 80 on November 15th the day after the marathon and we all know how that winter turned out ;-)

 

It isn't, because the first 80-degree day occurred on April 20, 1993.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It isn't, because the first 80-degree day occurred on April 20, 1993.

I'd be curious to see what the shortest periods are between last and first 80 degree day

 

[LibertyBell]

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 1993 was the latest 80° day on record at Newark.

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	First	Value	Last	Value	Difference
1993	04-20 (1993)	80	11-15 (1993)	80	208
1948	05-10 (1948)	87	11-06 (1948)	80	179
2003	04-15 (2003)	81	11-03 (2003)	81	201

That was back when temps at NYC and EWR were very much in line as NYC hit 80 that day too.

 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That was back when temps at NYC and EWR were very much in line as NYC hit 80 that day too.

 

Now Central Park’s trees have created a fairly large summer temperature divergence.

[SACRUS]

9/14

PHL: 88
TTN: 84
ACY: 82
New Brnswck: 82
EWR: 81
LGA: 81
TEB: 81
NYC: 80
BLM: 79
ISP: 78
JFK: 78

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Now Central Park’s trees have created a fairly large summer temperature divergence.

Summers of 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999 and 2002 I think were the really hot summers I remember where NYC was in line with the rest of the urban weather reporting sites, it was after 2002 that I started to notice a huge divergence.  Not coincidentally, 2002 was our last really dry summer too  which also kept foliage in check (2010 was also dry but by then the foliage was already out of control.)  Looking back at my pictures from 2002, that was my last summer where the grass was yellow lol and looked like straw.  1995 and 2002 were the two years I have pictures of which had this parched grass.  Not even 2010 had that.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

By the way looking at old pictures is a really good way to tell what weather was like in a specific year.  I'm really glad I take pictures during and after every storm and also at random times during the year to catalog plant growth.  It has a three dimensional aspect to it that one simply cannot get just by looking at data of specific years.  It adds context to the data.

 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 77degs.(70/85), or +8.

Month to date is  71.4[-0.6].       Could be  73.4[+2.5] by the 23rd, but more likely 72.4[+1.4].

Reached 79 here yesterday.

Today p. cloudy, s./sw. wind, 83-86, rain after 9pm.

72*(97%RH) here at 6am, dirty sky.         80* by Noon but fell back to 77* at 3pm on strong s. wind.       Got back to 80* again at 6pm.

[the_other_guy]

7 hours ago, SACRUS said:

9/14

PHL: 88
TTN: 84
ACY: 82
New Brnswck: 82
EWR: 81
LGA: 81
TEB: 81
NYC: 80
BLM: 79
ISP: 78
JFK: 78

Any chance to start adding HPN or SWF to this list?  

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Any chance to start adding HPN or SWF to this list? 

High of 78° at HPN. Another very warm start to the day across the area. We’ll see if HPN can add another 65°minimum to the list making it to 54 days. The higher dew points in recent years allowed record numbers of 65° or warmer minimums.

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65	Missing Count
1	2018	63	1
2	2011	60	2
3	2020	59	1
-	2012	59	2
-	1969	59	0
4	1959	58	0
5	1999	56	58
6	2010	54	2
-	1961	54	3
7	2021	53	110
-	2016	53	0
-	2005	53	5
-	1985	53	11
-	1983	53	5
8	2017	51	6
-	2013	51	1
-	1970	51	5
9	1973	50	0

[gravitylover]

43 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Any chance to start adding HPN or SWF to this list?  

Those two and KDXR would really give context to what's happening north of the immediate metro area. 

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Those two and KDXR would really give context to what's happening north of the immediate metro area. 

Warmest summer minimums on record  this year north of NYC Metro with the continuing record high dew points.

Time Series Summary for DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	63.8	0
2	2020	61.6	0
3	2018	61.3	0
-	2005	61.3	0
4	2013	60.9	0
5	2010	60.5	0

 

 

[Roger Smith]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'd be curious to see what the shortest periods are between last and first 80 degree day

 

1882 is probably the winner, at NYC the first 80F reading was May 31 and the last one was Sep 20. That is 111 days using the counting method in the tables already posted by others (it works out to the number of days between the end dates so not including either of them, if you included both of the end dates, then 113 days). 1875 is probably second, at NYC the first 80F reading was May 20 and the last one was September 10. That is 112 days (or 114 counting both end dates). 

That latter (Sept 10) is not an extreme earliest date for termination of the 80 or + season, 1902 (Sept 2), 1876 (Sept 4) and 1871 (Sept 6) finished earlier, but 1871 had a much earlier onset with 85F on April 8 and therefore longer seasons. The extreme for latest onset appears to be June 7 (1924) followed by May 31 (1882); also later than 1875 was May 25 (in 1873) but that season terminated on Sep 29 (lasting 15 days longer than 1882), also 1898 started its season on May 20 but went into early October to reach 137 days.

1988 began its season May 23, 1904 began its season on May 24, 1916 and 1946 on May 25, 1920 and 1999 on May 28. In 1869 with some missing data but likely much cooler than 80F from maps available, the first 80 deg day is also May 13 and the first to exceed 80 was May 26. 1883 joins the group for the >80F short duration because the season ended in late August but after some very cool weather for most of the autumn an outlier 80F occurred on Oct 14 so this year did not make the first table, as I show in the following tables (80 or higher seasons shorter than 135 days in table 1, >80 seasons shorter than 125 days in table 2): 

(I have used the same convention for counting dates between the first and last 80 or + and (>80) as shown in other tables above, which I worked out to be the number of days between the start and end date, not counting either of them. The actual duration of the season adds two days (the end points) to my values and those in the other tables above.) 

 

Table 1: 

SHORTEST DURATIONS OF (80 or +)F MAX at NYC 

1882 ________ 80 May 31 ___ 84 Sep 20 __________ 111d (152-262)

1875 ________ 80 May 20 ___ 80 Sep 10 ___________112d (141-252)

1887 ________ 85 May 11 ___ 85 Sep 7 ____________ 118 d (132-249)

1876 ________ 87 May 7 ____ 80 Sep 4 ____________119d (129-247)* 

1924 ________80 June 7 ____ 81 Oct 6 ____________ 120d (160-279)

1877 ________ 82 May 15 ___ 81 Sep 16 ___________ 123d (136-258)

1904 ________ 86 May 24 ___ 80 Sep 25 __________ 123d (146-268)*

1984 ________ 81 May 23 __ 86 Sep 25 ___________ 124d (145-268)*

1873 ________ 80 May 25 ___ 80 Sep 29 __________ 126d (146-271)

1966 ________ 83 May 6 ____ 82 Sep 11 ___________ 127d (127-253)

1971 ________ 84 May 11 ____ 86 Sep 16 __________ 127d (132-258) (78 on Oct 29)

1988 ________ 83 May 23 ___ 80 Sep 28 __________ 127d (145-271)*

1899 ________ 84 May 1 ____ 82 Sep 8 ____________ 129d (122-250) (79 on Oct 18)

1911 _________ 83 May 18 ___ 86 Sep 25 __________ 129d (139-267)

1932 ________ 83 May 16 ___ 86 Sep 23 __________ 129d (138-266)*

2020 ________ 80 May 3 ___ 82 Sep 10 ___________ 129d (125-253)*

1869 ________ 80 May 12 ___ 86 Sep 20 __________ 130d (133-262)

1893 ________ 80 May 11 ___ 82 Sep 19 ___________ 130d (132-261)

1902 ________ 84 Apr 22 ___ 82 Sep 2 ____________ 132d (113-244)

1906 ________ 84 May 13 ___ 80 Sep 23 __________ 132d (134-265)

1907 ________ 85 May 14 ___ 83 Sep 24 __________ 132d (134-265)

1889 ________ 81 May 6 ____ 82 Sep 17 ___________ 133d (127-259)

1918 ________ 90 May 6 ____ 80 Sep 17 ___________ 133d (127-259)

1890 ________ 80 May 1 ____ 83 Sep 13 ___________ 134d (122-255)

1933 ________ 80 May 15 ___90 Sep 27 ___________ 134d (136-269)

1888 ________ 83 Apr 29 ___ 80 Sep 12 ___________ 135d (121-255)*

* leap year, date count one higher for calendar dates

 

Table 2:

SHORTEST DURATIONS OF >80F MAX at NYC __ duration (dates between end points)

 

1873 ________ 87 May 28 ___ 87 Sep 5 ___________ 99d (149-247)

1882 ________ 83 June 7 ___ 84 Sep 20 _________ 104d (159-262)

1883 ________ 81 May 8 ____ 88 Aug 23 _________ 106d (129-234)

1999 ________ 81 May 28 ___ 81 Sep 12 _________ 106d (149-254)

1875 ________ 86 May 21 ___ 84 Sep 9 __________ 110d (142-251)

1924 _______ 81 June 15 ___ 81 Oct 6 ___________ 112d (168-279)

1876 ________ 87 May 7 ____ 87 Sep 1 ___________ 116d (129-244)*

1869 ________ 86 May 26 ___ 86 Sep 20 ________ 116d (147-262)

2020 ________84 May 15 ___ 82 Sep 10 _________ 117d (137-253)*

1887 ________ 85 May 11 ___ 85 Sep 7 ___________118d (132-249)

1893 ________ 85 May 21 ___ 82 Sep 19 _________120d (142-261)

1900 ________ 84 May 14 ___ 86 Sep 12 ________ 120d (135-254)

1918 ________ 90 May 6 ____ 81 Sep 4 __________ 120d (127-246)

1890 ________ 81 May 14 ___ 83 Sep 13 _________ 121d (135-255)

1908 ________ 81 May 12 ___ 81 Sep 11 __________ 121d (134-254)*

1888 ________ 83 Apr 29 ___ 83 Aug 30 _________ 122d (121-242)*

1901 ________ 85 May 24 ___ 81 Sep 24 _________ 122d (145-266)

1988 ________ 83 May 23 ___ 82 Sep 23 _________122d (145-266)*

1877 ________ 82 May 15 ___ 81 Sep 16 __________123d (136-258)

1984 ________ 81 May 23 __ 86 Sep 25 _________ 124d (145-268)*

* leap year, date count is one higher than other years for same calendar dates

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Earliest and Latest 80 deg max in graphical format (advance of the extremes)

_________ 1871 Apr 8 ________ 1879 Oct 16

_______ 1892 Apr 4 __________1897 Oct 16

_____ 1917 Apr 1** __________ 1908 Oct 16 _____ ** 1910 Mar 30 (78) close

__1921 Mar 21 ___________________ 1919 Oct 28

_ 1945 Mar 20 ___________________ 1946 Oct 31** ___ **1938 Nov 7 (78) close

_ (1990 Mar 13) ___________________1950 Nov 2 (1974 Nov 1)

_ 1990 Mar 13 ______________________ 1993 Nov 15

close out of season attempts to stretch the limits ...

_ 79 Mar 10, 2016 ___________________ 77 Nov 20, 1985

_ 78 Feb 21, 2018 ____________________ 75 Dec 7, 1998

==============================================

List of the longest seasons for 80 or higher, in successive increases over past seasons

166d _ 1881 _ Apr 24 to Oct 8

168d _ 1891 _ Apr 19 to Oct 5

173d _ 1892 _ Apr 4 to Sep 25

174d _ 1914 _ Apr 19 to Oct 11

176d _ 1919 _ May 4 to Oct 28

192d _ 1921 _ Mar 21 to Sep 30

195d _ 1928 _ Apr 5 to Oct 18

212d _ 1945 _ Mar 20 to Oct 19

(207d)_1963 _ Apr 2 to Oct 27

214d _ 1990 _ Mar 13 to Oct 14

________________________________________

Other seasons 180d or longer:

1985 (199); 1993 (197); 1961 (187); 1968, 1974 (186); 1967 (185); 1938, 1942 (184);

1955, 1959, 1998, 2016 (183); 1960 (182); 1979, 2011, 2017 (181); 1922 (180)

To tie the record set in 1990, 2021 will need to record 80 F or higher on October 27 (first reading was 82F Mar 26).

To match fourth place 1985, 2021 will need to record 80F or higher on October 12. 

_________________________________________

Most of the short seasons were before 1905, but a few have happened in more recent years. Oddly, some rather hot summers join this list (1901, 1966 and 1988 can all be found).

Hoping this graph will copy from my excel file where I did this analysis.  

            1869 - 2020                    
    Duration (days) of 80 deg seasons (blue is 80 or +, orange is >80)                            
     ... Many years have the same durations for these (if end points are >80)         

                   
                                
                                
                                
                                
                                
                                
                                
                                
                                
                                
                                
                                
                                
                                
                                
                                

 

 

[donsutherland1]

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'd be curious to see what the shortest periods are between last and first 80 degree day

 

EWR: 127 days (5/6-9/11/1966 and 5/11-9/16/1971)
JFK: 97 days (6/5-9/11/1966)
LGA: 112 days (5/21-9/11/1966 and 5/24-9/14/1981)
NYC: 111 days (5/31-9/20/1882)

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Accidentally posted in the climate change forum (when did the definition of climate change so drastically that this was there?):

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region.  An approaching cold front could trigger some late day or evening showers or thunderstorms. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 85°

Newark: 89°

Philadelphia: 89°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 76.6°; 15-Year: 77.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 78.1°; 15-Year: 78.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 79.3°; 15-Year: 80.0°

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and cooler. Some showers are possible.

[rclab]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Accidentally posted in the climate change forum (when did the definition of climate change so drastically that this was there?):

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and very warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region.  An approaching cold front could trigger some late day or evening showers or thunderstorms. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 85°

Newark: 89°

Philadelphia: 89°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 76.6°; 15-Year: 77.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 78.1°; 15-Year: 78.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 79.3°; 15-Year: 80.0°

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and cooler. Some showers are possible.

Good afternoon Don. Considering the direction we are headed, it has obvious relevance in both threads. As always ….

[bluewave]

Some late season Miami dew points into New England today.

New Haven MOSUNNY 83 75