Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 Mt. Holly has a forecast rain band pivot for the CWA overnight and into tomorrow morning, so it's possible, if it verifies, that anyone who missed out the first round, might cash in on a 2nd round (including what looks like a convective line tomorrow morning) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 11 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Mt. Holly has a forecast rain band pivot for the CWA overnight and into tomorrow morning, so it's possible, if it verifies, that anyone who missed out the first round, might cash in on a 2nd round (including what looks like a convective line tomorrow morning) - We shall see. The Reading Rain Shield is holding the line at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: That thing looks like the machine from Willy Wonka that made the Everlasting Gobstopper. I though it would be a little more precise and technical. Oh well, over and done with... When I got my Ambient weather station, I had been reading all sorts of discussions on how people calibrate all sorts of rain gauges and saw pics of those ASOS rain gauges. I think the point of the slats is as a baffle around the funnel to minimize ground level winds and droplet bounce, since the rain can get blown around that could miss the gauge and give readings that are too low. There's a cool little video explanation of it (using NWS's DFW ASOS as an example) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: We shall see. The Reading Rain Shield is holding the line at the moment. I've been watching some returns slowly dropping down to your area although it might be virga at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 46 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I've been watching some returns slowly dropping down to your area although it might be virga at this point. Finally raining albeit very slightly at the moment. Asphalt and sidewalk are wet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Man that N NJ region is going have some prolific flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 NHC 8 pm Advisory (now downgraded to a Tropical Depression, winds 35 mph, pressure 1000 mb, but still moving at 7 mph WNW) - Quote 822 WTNT33 KNHC 222346 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...HENRI WEAKENING BUT STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.7N 72.8W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM NE OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Henri was located by surface observations near latitude 41.7 North, longitude 72.8 West. Henri is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Monday morning. A slow turn toward the north is expected Monday morning, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast Monday afternoon. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border tonight, then move across northern Connecticut or southern Massachusetts by Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts expected over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday. Isolated maximum totals of 10 to 12 inches are possible across northern New Jersey into southern New York. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Henri at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and continue into Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch Quick Links and Additional Resources Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Man that N NJ region is going have some prolific flooding.Starting to think Poconos will be prolific as well. It will be interesting to see how far south the precip shield gets tonight. Looks like it has made it just south of i78 and i81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 39 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: NHC 8 pm Advisory (now downgraded to a Tropical Depression, winds 35 mph, pressure 1000 mb, but still moving at 7 mph WNW) - If I’m looking at things correctly Henri is a bit off track looks further west-southwest and getting shoved southwest towards NE Pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: If I’m looking at things correctly Henri is a bit off track looks further west-southwest and getting shoved southwest towards NE Pa Rain shield seems to be finally crashing south. The Reading Rain Shield can only hold for so long! Wait, that sounds weird. Eh, whatever. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 44 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: If I’m looking at things correctly Henri is a bit off track looks further west-southwest and getting shoved southwest towards NE Pa I think some of the models earlier in the week suggested that it would drift to the west and get cut off from any steering mechanisms (basically sitting and raining all over the place), to the point where a couple mets were even comparing it to what Hurricane Harvey did (down in Texas). It would supposedly eventually get picked up by something and sent east again across NE, and out to sea. Some of the models even had it do a loop-de-loop that took it down into NE PA, and then had it head back up to the northeast, and finally go east out to sea. The behavior we are seeing probably had the most uncertainty with the forecasting because it was dependent on features to the north and the ULL that is south of where we are, that would be determinants on its movements. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Rain started back up again about an hour ago, nothing heavy, just steady. .1" so far tonight. Wondering if some of those heavy echoes currently in Lehigh valley and Poconos will rotate down this way overnight. They look to be getting slammed though, some places with already 4-5"+ and no sign of letting up either. I think chances of some river flooding, albeit minor, have definitely increased. That's a pretty large area seeing 2-5"+ of rain in a pretty short period of time. Pretty much the entire length of the Delaware river in pa/NJ down to the tidal region is over 2" of rain and at least another inch+ still to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 NHC 5 am FINAL Advisory (now stalled drifting E 1 mph, weakened to 1005 mb, and 30 mph winds) - Quote 253 WTNT33 KWNH 230849 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Henri Advisory Number 30 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL082021 500 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 ...SLOW-MOVING HENRI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.6N 74.4W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF NEW YORK CITY ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Flood watches are in effect across eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, New Jersey, Long Island, and portions of New England. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Henri was located near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 74.4 West. The depression is nearly stationary at the moment, but is expected to begin an eastward motion by later this morning into the afternoon hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania through today. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in limited to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Depression Henri at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada through today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Chenard FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 41.6N 74.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 23/1800Z 41.6N 73.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/0600Z 41.7N 71.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1800Z 42.3N 68.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Picked up another .90" since midnight bringing my total to 2.80". Looks like I can add to that with some showers forecasted to swing through later today. Wrap-around snows ftw! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 New NHC update after claiming the last was a final - (the stalled system has started moving again and is now moving east at 6 mph, with all other parameters steady) - Quote 527 WTNT33 KWNH 231458 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Henri Advisory Number 31 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL082021 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 ...SLOW-MOVING HENRI BEGINNING TO TURN EAST... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.4N 73.7W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF NEW YORK CITY ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Flood watches are in effect across northeast Pennsylvania, southeast New York, northeast New Jersey, Long Island, and portions of New England. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Henri was located near latitude 41.4 North, longitude 73.7 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue before accelerating later tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to locally 2 inches in New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania through today and 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, over far southeast New York, Long Island, and southern to central New England through tonight. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in limited to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, along with isolated minor to moderate river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Depression Henri at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html TORNADOES: A isolated tornado or two is possible across Southern New England this afternoon into the evening. SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada through today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Churchill FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 41.4N 73.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/0000Z 41.5N 72.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1200Z 42.0N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 25/0000Z 42.9N 65.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Picked up 1.48" of rain so far today Three day storm total of 5.22" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Got an additional 0.74" overnight, hubba hubba! Brings the storm total to 1.11" here. Put a nice dent in the August rainfall for here, monthly total is up to 2.15". Nice day for the beginning of our next toasty spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Downpour in progress. Of course it is as the chance is 30%. Ready for another drought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Shotgun torrential showers lined up look like they are moving 100mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, RedSky said: Shotgun torrential showers lined up look like they are moving 100mph They seemed to have popped up out of nowhere and are surfing the Henri waves! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 You can see the naked swirl from Henri sitting right on the NY/NJ/PA border. The cloud structures have really spread out and you can see the band that is producing that convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Decent cluster heading into lower bucks...more stuff streaming down from the NW to SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Storms are popping everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 A couple downpours and distant thunder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Henri rain total here in Media Pennsylvania 1.24" last 24 hours. Today's high 90 dew points hanging 70-71 with a brisk WNW wind to 15-18 mph. Waiting for the thunderstorms moving ESE around what is left of Henri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 I’m getting the heaviest rain of the last few days right now. A little windy also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 NHC 5 pm Advisory (now-post tropical, down to 25 mph, ENE 9 mph, pressure steady) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KWNH 232052 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri Advisory Number 32 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL082021 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 ...HENRI IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.6N 73.6W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF NEW YORK CITY ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Flood watches are in effect across portions of southeast New York and southern New England. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri was located near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 73.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to accelerate later tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Remnant moisture from Henri is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to locally 2 inches in New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, and southern New York through this evening and 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, over southern to central New England through tonight. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in limited flash, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, along with isolated minor to moderate river flooding. The flood risk associated with Henri is expected to diminish by early Tuesday. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Henri at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html TORNADOES: A brief tornado or two is possible across Southern New England through this evening. SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Churchill/Pagano FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 41.6N 73.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 12H 24/0600Z 41.7N 71.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 24/1800Z 42.4N 68.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED And it is still sending moisture down here to us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 23, 2021 Author Share Posted August 23, 2021 Got under a couple pop-ups that gave me an additional 0.15" so far, bringing my total to 2.12" for the event. Those Henri bands just keep on giving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Picked up another refreshing 0.14" from one of those showers. Storm total is now 1.25", monthly total 2.29". Steamy driveway here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 23, 2021 Share Posted August 23, 2021 Picked up 0.01" here in Media from that dying round of thunderstorms a bit of breeze with that to 20 mph and out. That ought to do it storm total here in Media 1.25" from the Hurricane Henri Upper Level Low set up. So far for the month of August 3.24" of rain total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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