wkd Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Anybody from Warren county, NJ care to report current obs. Looks like you have been hammered for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, wkd said: Anybody from Warren county, NJ care to report current obs. Looks like you have been hammered for a while. A bunch of the NNJ folks have been posting in the NY Metro forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said: A bunch of the NNJ folks have been posting in the NY Metro forum. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Just got back from Maryland Bad drive home on the turnpike Heavy rain here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 NHC 12:30 pm update - LANDFALL in Western RI approx. 12:15 pm - Quote 000 WTNT63 KNHC 221628 TCUAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1230 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM HENRI MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF RHODE ISLAND NEAR WESTERLY... Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA Doppler weather radars, and surface observations indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Henri made landfall along the coast of Rhode Island near Westerly at approximately 1215 PM EDT this afternoon. At the time of landfall, maximum sustained winds were estimated to be 60 mph. A Weatherflow station near Point Judith, Rhode Island, recently measured a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph (113 km/h). The center of Henri passed over Block Island, Rhode Island, around 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC. SUMMARY OF 1215 PM EDT...1615 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.3N 71.8W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart/Brennan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Just got back from Maryland Bad drive home on the turnpike Heavy rain here in Brooklyn Find this guy and get out while there is still time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Mt. Holly's 24 hr precip estimate (as of 8 am, posted 9:13 am) - You can see the sharp cutoff - ETA - I am currently 1.44" for the day so far (1.51" for the 2 day event at post time). Pretty crazy how the really heavy totals cut off right at the Delaware river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Some of the models show an additional 1-2" overnight for much of the area as the precip pivots around the low in NY. They're also showing widespread 2-4"+ in the Delaware river headwaters. Will be interesting to see how much it rises on Monday. Right now Mt Holly thinks it will crest just below flood stage but I believe it can change if some of those widespread 2-4" totals verify in NW NJ/NE PA/SNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 11 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Some of the models show an additional 1-2" overnight for much of the area as the precip pivots around the low in NY. They're also showing widespread 2-4"+ in the Delaware river headwaters. Will be interesting to see how much it rises on Monday. Right now Mt Holly thinks it will crest just below flood stage but I believe it can change if some of those widespread 2-4" totals verify in NW NJ/NE PA/SNY. The fire hose flow is just bizarre. It is spraying moisture from NY, NNW across NNJ and NEPA, and literally all the way out to central PA, where it starts "falling" (dropping) south, and then recurving around to the SE down into MD and across central DE. There's a big hole in between. It's like a giant hook or a hot wheels track or something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Big ol' dry slot across SE PA, winter has come early? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Newman said: Big ol' dry slot across SE PA, winter has come early? I will take that for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 3 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Looks we are at or close to landfall in RI. It's hard to tell (at least on doppler) due to all the convection. RI is a tiny piece of beach front real estate. Takes the right trajectory to get a LF tc there. With that said, anyone know the last time RI had a LF from a tc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, Newman said: Big ol' dry slot across SE PA, winter has come early? I can laugh at the big radar hole because it's rain but that would seriously piss me off during the winter. Sun was poking though about an hour ago, now overcast. 76F / DP 73 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Right, and we’d be counting on wrap around snows to save us…lol! Seems the precip is hitting a wall at I-78 as it drops south 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Man, NNJ and New NY getting drilled, what a mess and the radar still has plenty to go. And this was hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: RI is a tiny piece of beach front real estate. Takes the right trajectory to get a LF tc there. With that said, anyone know the last time RI had a LF from a tc? Hurricane Bob in 1991 (although Bob was much stronger than Henri) - https://www.weather.gov/mhx/HurricaneBob1991EventReview https://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_bob And interestingly enough, it almost looks like a similar rainfall pattern too, although the track was a little different (not the Harvey-like getting cutoff and stall before moving out that seems to be progged for Henri) - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 NHC's 2 pm update (storm down to 50 mph sustained, has slowed to 9 mph, moving NW, and weakened to 991 mb) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 221809 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 27A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Corrected initial latitude and distance to reference points in summary block. ...HENRI SLOWS DOWN OVER SOUTHWESTERN RHODE ISLAND... ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.4N 71.8W ABOUT 5 MI...5 KM N OF WESTERLY RHODE ISLAND ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet New York to Chatham Massachusetts, including Long Island * Block Island, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located by surface observations and and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 41.4 North, longitude 71.8 West. Henri is now moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected this afternoon. The center of Henri is currently located inland over southwestern Rhode Island. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border tonight, with an east-northeastward motion across northern Connecticut and southern Massachusetts on expected on Monday. Data from Doppler radars and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected now that Henri has moved inland over southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from nearby surface observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing, NY to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...1-2 ft Flushing, NY to Merrimack River, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, Nantucket Sound, and Cape Cod Bay...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the tropical storm warning area into tonight. TORNADOES: The risk for a tornado or two continues today across parts of southern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should diminish around Bermuda later today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 I wish some of those storms forming JUST to my south and west would form over us for just a little bit. We're still under a tenth of an inch from this whole thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Precip moving south/closing in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 28 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Precip moving south/closing in.... NYC must be under water! It will rain here again tonight as everything collapses south then southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 NHC 5 pm Advisory (weakened to 40 mph sustained, speed slowed to 7 mph and now moving WNW, with pressure up to 997 mb) - Quote 613 WTNT33 KNHC 222040 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...HENRI WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CONNECTICUT... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.6N 72.4W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF NEW YORK CITY ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SE OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All coastal Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located by surface observations and and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 72.4 West. Henri is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Monday morning. A slow turn toward the north is expected Monday morning, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast Monday afternoon. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border tonight, then move across northern Connecticut or southern Massachusetts by Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Henri is expected to become a tropical depression this evening and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by Monday afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, mainly over Long Island Sound. A sustained wind of 29 mph (47 km/h) and a gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) were recently measured by a private weather station at Orient Point on eastern Long Island. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts expected over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday. Isolated maximum totals of 10 to 12 inches are possible across northern New Jersey into southern New York. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Henri at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible along coastal areas of Connecticut and northern Long Island during the next few hours. SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 11 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: NYC must be under water! It will rain here again tonight as everything collapses south then southeast. You gotta think they are near 8"-10"+ at this point in spots... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 The radar is very ominous for NNJ/NYC region. Really heavy stuff. Doesn’t look like it’s moving fast either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Upstream Delaware river basin is getting dumped on right now. They missed last night thankfully but looks like that batch of heavy rain is going to park up there tonight. Looking like that widespread 2-4" could verify. Could bring some hydo issues Tuesday along the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: You gotta think they are near 8"-10"+ at this point in spots... They broke a record in Central Park last night right when they had (stupidly) went on with that concert there and then had to halt it about halfway through and cancel the rest because of --> WPC actually still has part of SE PA as Marginal for their Day 2 - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVLion77 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 I 78 is a brick wall holding back the bulk of that precip shield. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 First tornado warning I've seen... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 18 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: They broke a record in Central Park last night right when they had (stupidly) went on with that concert there and then had to halt it about halfway through and cancel the rest because of --> WPC actually still has part of SE PA as Marginal for their Day 2 - I find the 1.94" extremely low for their 1hr precip record. I would have thought 2.5" - 3"+. I mean a solid thunderstorm can lay down 2"+...not sure who keeps records up there but it doesn't sound correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 23 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I find the 1.94" extremely low for their 1hr precip record. I would have thought 2.5" - 3"+. I mean a solid thunderstorm can lay down 2"+...not sure who keeps records up there but it doesn't sound correct. Well if it came out of their ASOS there, it was automated. I know that KNYC (Central Park) has always been made fun of (temperatures and snow measurements) and I always wondered if they normally bypass it and use KJFK for official readings for NYC. I found a pic of the little complex of instruments so it could be a tree issue - https://www.weather.gov/okx/CentralParkHistorical I think the funky slatted unit on the left is their rain gauge/ASOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Well if it came out of their ASOS there, it was automated. I know that KNYC (Central Park) has always been made fun of (temperatures and snow measurements) and I always wondered if they normally bypass it and use KJFK for official readings for NYC. I found a pic of the little complex of instruments so it could be a tree issue - https://www.weather.gov/okx/CentralParkHistorical I think the funky slatted unit on the left is their rain gauge/ASOS. That thing looks like the machine from Willy Wonka that made the Everlasting Gobstopper. I though it would be a little more precise and technical. Oh well, over and done with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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