RedSky Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Of course the NAM lost points big time in NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Yeah radar is really starting to blossom all across the region. These bands are no joke, we'll see how far inland they stretch and which place sets up as the pivot point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Looks ominous as in bullet not dodged after all for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 0z euro a more emphatic left hook and a "Noah's Ark" flood alert for NYC after what has already fallen wow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 NHC 2 am update (continues to strengthen a tick to 987 mb, now moving N and has sped up to 21 mph) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 220552 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...HENRI HEADING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND... ...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.3N 71.0W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts * Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet * Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket * Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case beginning within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in this case beginning within the next 12 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 71.0 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected later this morning. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New England or on Long Island today. After landfall, a turn to the north and a slower forward speed are expected as Henri moves over southern New England. Reports from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible early this morning. Weakening is expected to begin later today. However, Henri is expected to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of southern New England and Long island. Rapid weakening is expected after Henri makes landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area today, with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning this morning and continuing into tonight. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, and New Jersey today into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today over southern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Latto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 1.20" so far. The HRRR lead the way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 I just hit the 1.01" mark for rain as I'm on the SW side of the deathband but still getting the moderate rain. When the light returns began here yesterday before I went offline, I had 0.01" in the bucket. As of midnight, ended up with 0.07" total for yesterday and am now at 1.08" at post time, for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 Looks like the more east solution appears to have been correct as the cone has been moving back east. Will have to see where the band pivots. Now have 1.08" in the bucket at about 1/3rd in/hr (1.15" total for the event). Not getting much wind though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 0.78" on the day, 1.02" for the storm. Living right on the southern edge of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 36 minutes ago, BBasile said: 0.78" on the day, 1.02" for the storm. Living right on the southern edge of precip. Am wondering if it eventually pivots around to pass over you once it landfalls and briefly starts heading to the west before swinging back east again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 1.25" overnight, currently steady rain which looks to have been the case for much of the night. Maybe will see some heavy stuff this morning as it pivots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, The Iceman said: 1.25" overnight, currently steady rain which looks to have been the case for much of the night. Maybe will see some heavy stuff this morning as it pivots? Will have to see if the pivot maintains the moisture funnel as it seems Mt. Holly was suggesting it could start drying up by the western-most parts as the system lifts to the north. What is throwing the wrench in nailing how it sets up is the ULL south of here that is helping to feed moisture up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Will have to see if the pivot maintains the moisture funnel as it seems Mt. Holly was suggesting it could start drying up by the western-most parts as the system lifts to the north. What is throwing the wrench in nailing how it sets up is the ULL south of here that is helping to feed moisture up this way. Just watching the radar over the past 2 to 3 hours it does appear to be drying up a tad... light/mod rain 72F / DP 71F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 Looks like NHC dropped it back down to a Tropical Storm at 7 am. NHC 7 am Update (winds dropped to 70 mph and now back to a TS, speed slowed to 18 mph, but pressure deepened to 986 mb) - Quote 000 WTNT63 KNHC 221118 CCA TCUAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 700 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Corrected location of Narragansett to Rhode Island. ...700 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island, recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (68 km/h). A Weatherflow station near Narragansett, Rhode Island, recently measured a sustained wind of 40 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h). SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.6N 71.2W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES $$ Forecaster Stewart/Roberts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Steady rain falling here in Media Delaware County 0.82" so far. It looks like the rain band is shrinking. Strange set up looks like the southern portion of the band is lifting north at like 5 mph and then where the back edge of the band over the area moving north you have individual segments ripping off and moving SSE. I am guessing this is in response to Henri getting further north of us an the Upper Level low collapsing a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 Looks like a spotter in Mercer, NJ has reported just over 5" of rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 0.37" here event total so far after being tickled by the southern edge of that Atlantic fire hose since about 2 am. Most rain this month in a single event so far, puts mby at 1.41" for the month. Maybe more later on, we shall see - pretty much done for the moment. Nice morning all things considered, 71F currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 26 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: 0.37" here event total so far after being tickled by the southern edge of that Atlantic fire hose since about 2 am. Most rain this month in a single event so far, puts mby at 1.41" for the month. Maybe more later on, we shall see - pretty much done for the moment. Nice morning all things considered, 71F currently. Will have to see if that band pivots any further south. I'm up to 1.39" for the day so far although the rate is very light/misty at the moment. This plus yesterday's 0.07" has me at 1.46" so far for the event and now at a whopping 8.31" for the month of August, with 10 days left, an not even at the peak of hurricane season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 You can see the southern boundary of the fire hose has been drying up. The question would be whether the returns that are west will move around as a pivot as the storm continues to lift to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 1.9" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Rain tapering off now, just some sprinkles now. 1.4", looks like that's it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 Here was NHC's 8 am update that I had been waiting on after their 7 am downgrade (still slowing and down to 16 mph, direction change to NNW, pressure holding) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 221155 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 800 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...CENTER OF HENRI MOVING CLOSER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.7N 71.3W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for Long Island, the southern coast of New England, and Block Island has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Manasquan Inlet New Jersey to Chatham Massachusetts, including Long Island and New York City * Block Island, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located by reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 71.3 West. Henri is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A north- northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected this morning. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in southern New England or on Long Island later this morning or early this afternoon. After landfall, a turn back toward the north and an even slower forward speed are expected as Henri moves over southern New England. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight weakening will be possible this morning, but Henri is still forecast to be a strong tropical storm when it reaches the coasts of southern New England and Long island. Rapid weakening is expected after Henri makes landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 50 mph (80 km/h). A Weatherflow station near Narragansett, Rhode Island, recently measured a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the tropical storm warning area into tonight. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania today into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur today over southern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 Looks we are at or close to landfall in RI. It's hard to tell (at least on doppler) due to all the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Well I am happy that the rain hasn’t been catastrophic. More will come but looks manageable. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 17 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Well I am happy that the rain hasn’t been catastrophic. More will come but looks manageable. Yes I was worried about basement flooding. It's been too much rain this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 24 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Well I am happy that the rain hasn’t been catastrophic. More will come but looks manageable. Yeah, about 1.80” of a nice, soaking rain here. Let’s build up soil moisture before the heat moves back in this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 NHC 11 am update (weakening and down to 60 mph, at 987 mb, and slowing to 12 mph - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 221451 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...CENTER OF HENRI PASSING CLOSE TO BLOCK ISLAND AS THE STORM HEADS FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.1N 71.6W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from East Rockaway Inlet to west of Mastic Beach, New York, and from north of Chatham, Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Cape Cod Bay. The Tropical Storm Warning from East Rockaway Inlet, New York to Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet New York to Chatham Massachusetts, including Long Island * Block Island, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 41.1 North, longitude 71.6 West. Henri is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A north-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for the next few hours, followed by a turn toward the northwest this afternoon. The center of Henri is currently passing near Block Island and on the forecast track the center is expected to make landfall in Rhode Island by early afternoon. Henri is forecast to slow down and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border tonight, followed by an east-northeastward motion across northern Connecticut and southern Massachusetts on Monday. Data from the aircraft, Doppler radars, and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected until landfall occurs, followed by rapid weakening after Henri moves inland over southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. A Weatherflow station on Block Island, Rhode Island, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust to 65 mph (105 km/h). Another Weatherflow station near Point Judith, Rhode Island, recently measured a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h). The NOAA C-MAN station at Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, recently measured a sustained wind of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 57 mph (92 km/h), while an amateur radio operator in Westport, Massachusetts, recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...2-4 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing, NY to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft Chatham, MA to Merrimack River, MA including Cape Cod Bay and Massachusetts Bay...1-2 ft East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Mastic Beach, NY...1-2 ft Recent reports from an amateur radio operator in Newport, Rhode Island, indicate that storm surge inundation near 1 ft has occurred, with water reported in the streets in some areas of the city. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the tropical storm warning area into tonight. Some tree and power line damage has already been reported across southern Rhode Island. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: The risk for a tornado or two continues today across parts of southern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should diminish around Bermuda later today. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 Mt. Holly's 24 hr precip estimate (as of 8 am, posted 9:13 am) - You can see the sharp cutoff - ETA - I am currently 1.44" for the day so far (1.51" for the 2 day event at post time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Escape from NYC, they have the stalled band 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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