CoolHandMike Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 18 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I was looking at the mid and lower level vapor sat images and there's dry air trying to get into the circulation of Henri from the west and Henri is literally jammed up against a "wall" of shear on the eastern side. So you can actually see what looks like a pipe funneling clouds up here. The "lesser" models picked up on that quite early, didn't they. Side note--I've been using the slider on weather.cod.edu/satrad to rock the image back and forth in the various different ABI/RGB bands. Even with the reduction in available free weather products over the past decade (RIP OG WU) I still find wonderment in the tools we still have as amateur meteos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Looks like some kind boundary moving slowly wnw through Delaware up into South Jersey some heavy rain along that. Almost comes across as a sea breeze front moving inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 hour ago, CoolHandMike said: The "lesser" models picked up on that quite early, didn't they. Side note--I've been using the slider on weather.cod.edu/satrad to rock the image back and forth in the various different ABI/RGB bands. Even with the reduction in available free weather products over the past decade (RIP OG WU) I still find wonderment in the tools we still have as amateur meteos. I love finding sites (I try to bookmark them) that have all sorts of stuff to play with. For example this site (has microwave gifs of tropoical systems) - http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2021_08L/web/mainpage.html I think some think they might be useless but I think they are cool visualizing the position and movement of a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 30 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Looks like some kind boundary moving slowly wnw through Delaware up into South Jersey some heavy rain along that. Almost comes across as a sea breeze front moving inland. Yeah have been watching that and it has been steadily moving from SE --> NW towards the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Not as much of a death band on the 3K 18z NAM that I can see. But then again, it doesn’t look like it’s picking up those showers over southern NJ. Model roulette continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 NHC 5 pm Advisory (continuing to hold NNE and 991 mb, but has now further increased forward speed to 18 mph) - Quote 533 WTNT33 KNHC 212033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Henri Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...HENRI MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... ...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.3N 71.4W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts * Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet * Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket * Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 71.4 West. Henri is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall on Long Island or in southern New England on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast through tonight. Although some weakening is expected prior to landfall on Sunday, Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of Long Island and southern New England. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for minor and moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi And as a side note, Hurricane Grace has officially "dissipated" over south central Mexico as of 5 pm EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: Not as much of a death band on the 3K 18z NAM that I can see. But then again, it doesn’t look like it’s picking up those showers over southern NJ. Model roulette continues! HRRR for the win if it happens. It's fading/gone on most other models. Kind of rooting for it, otherwise it'll be pretty much a snoozefest here it would seem, as Henri waves as he passes by NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Henri probably looking it's best so far at the moment. The sunset sun angle doesn't hurt, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Henri probably looking it's best so far at the moment. The sunset sun angle doesn't hurt, but still. LOL Was about to post something similar. GMTA! I love GOES-16 "truecolor" band. The resolution is just amaing and you can see some wild stuff that goes on in the atmosphere like is happening here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 58 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: HRRR for the win if it happens. It's fading/gone on most other models. Kind of rooting for it, otherwise it'll be pretty much a snoozefest here it would seem, as Henri waves as he passes by NJ. The HRRR does seem to be matching the radar the best. I wouldn’t mind an inch or two to keep the lawn green, but I can’t deal with another flooding event here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 This area circled looks like they are going to be slammed. 2-4" with locally more imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Already getting some sprinkles, 79F/DP 72F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: The HRRR does seem to be matching the radar the best. I wouldn’t mind an inch or two to keep the lawn green, but I can’t deal with another flooding event here I'd be happy with an inch, it would double my rainfall for the month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 I'm seeing an interesting sunset - which is due to the fact there is a sunset as it has been overcast all afternoon. I am guessing because the bands are moving in from the SE, opposite of where the sun is setting. Even though the radar is showing some returns over me, it's like virga (at least so far). Currently 76 with dp 73. Mt. Holly retweeted WPC's latest - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshb32689 Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: I'm seeing an interesting sunset - which is due to the fact there is a sunset as it has been overcast all afternoon. I am guessing because the bands are moving in from the SE, opposite of where the sun is setting. Even though the radar is showing some returns over me, it's like virga (at least so far). Currently 76 with dp 73. Mt. Holly retweeted WPC's latest - Just had a beautiful rainbow over here in Havertown. Wish I could attach the picture, says it’s too big. Posted on the Phillywx obs. thread. bring on the rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Had a few sprinkles here in Media so call it a trace. We had a double rainbow right at sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Light rain on and off the last hour in Levittown. Heavier returns beginning to make their way on shore now. Going to be an interesting next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 22, 2021 Author Share Posted August 22, 2021 Looks like I'm finally getting light drizzle - at least enough to wet the street and walks but not enough to tip the bucket yet. And the steamy windows have commenced! NHC 8 pm update (has now strengthened a bit with pressure down to 988 mb but everything else is steady as he goes) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 212354 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 24A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...HENRI MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... ...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.4N 71.0W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Westport Massachusetts * Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet * Westport Massachusetts to Chatham Massachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket * Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Henri was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 71.0 West. Henri is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall on Long Island or in southern New England on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast through tonight. Although some weakening is expected prior to landfall on Sunday, Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coasts of Long Island and southern New England. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft Sagamore Beach, MA to Merrimack River including Massachusetts Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for minor and moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Sprinkles here too in SW Delco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Found this guy earlier walking up the hill out near the street, moving away from the creek. Maybe he saw the mesoscale discussion. We put him in the back yard and pointed him back towards the creek. He's a snapper, pretty small. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Rain beginning to pick up in Levittown. Nothing heavy yet but a steady moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Double rainbow an hour ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 We just got NAMed! Death band is back. So glad we’re not tracking snow. Off and on light rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Cells popping up in west Chester Co., though not seeing any lightning yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 More cells in Berks as well now. Starting to see lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 There's radar estimates nearing 5" across Brooklyn and southern parts of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Parts of western Chesco and eastern Lanco have a Flood advisory up. Some cells have been stationary over there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 Radar returns are filling in juicy. If it slows and stops then pivots look out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: Radar returns are filling in juicy. If it slows and stops then pivots look out. That all looks an awful lot like the hrrr model run from this morning boat load of moisture heading due west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 22, 2021 Share Posted August 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: That all looks an awful lot like the hrrr model run from this morning boat load of moisture heading due west 0z NAM runs might have a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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