Hurricane Agnes Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 18z ICON does a slam dunk right into Rtd208. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Ridging out ahead of Henri from Bermuda extending towards Maine continues to strengthen as time goes on. Clearly is one of the features keeping the storm from exiting very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 18z NAM is saying not so fast and starts sending it east again (although it does seem to be picking up what I was seeing on the visible sat wihere the naked lower level swirl of the system seems to be tugging the rest of itself slightly to the east). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 GFS lots of rain across EPA, continues to trend west. Nothing crazy like previous RGEM or Ukie runs, but 1"+ of precip regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 20, 2021 Author Share Posted August 20, 2021 Latest cone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 NHC 8pm Advisory - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 202346 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 20A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...HENRI TURNS NORTHWARD... ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 73.8W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Oyster Bay to Montauk Point * Greenwich Connecticut to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from west of Mastic Beach to East Rockaway Inlet * North shore of Long Island from west of Oyster Bay to Flushing * Flushing New York to west of Greenwich Connecticut * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Manasquan Inlet New Jersey to west of East Rockaway Inlet New York, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required later tonight or Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 73.8 West. Henri is now moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued forward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through early Sunday. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern New England on Sunday. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Watch Hill, RI to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft East Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...2-4 ft North shore of Long Island...2-4 ft Flushing, NY to Watch Hill, RI...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by early Sunday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area and possible in the tropical storm watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Henri may produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri could result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Wagons east at 18z, just like winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Wagons east at 18z, just like winter Yeah, there are/were a couple recons going around and in it, so will see if any new data shifts it either way to start (or continue) a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, RedSky said: Wagons east at 18z, just like winter Lucy showing up again, good warm up for the winter I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 17 minutes ago, Newman said: Lucy showing up again, good warm up for the winter I suppose The Howie Roseman team looking weak in all facets of the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 We take! Lol https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021082100&fh=0 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 NAM running... swings out east and then hooks around and hits eastern LI to crush the whole state of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Meanwhile the FV-3(I believe it is taking over for the NAM soon) slams into NYC after being at the end of LI at 12z. Seems like the mesos are intent on the storm getting captured but the globals aren't biting yet. Think it comes down to how strong it gets the next 12-18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Meanwhile the FV-3(I believe it is taking over for the NAM soon) slams into NYC after being at the end of LI at 12z. Seems like the mesos are intent on the storm getting captured but the globals aren't biting yet. Think it comes down to how strong it gets the next 12-18 hours. It's a shame we are 24 hours out from it and the models are all over the place. The shear had been keeping it from moving much but the visible looks like it is trying to stack and it is getting into a more favorable area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 11 pm Advisory. Cone (with landfall) about the same but possibly a tiny tick west. Speed has picked up a little... Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 210259 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...HENRI CONTINUING NORTHWARD WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 73.5W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Warning between Greenwich, CT to Flushing, NY and Flushing to Oyster Bay, NY. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Watch Hill, Rhode Island, east to Woods Hole, Massachusetts, including Block Island and Martha's Vineyard. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect west of East Rockaway Inlet, New York, to Manasquan Inlet, New Jersey, including New York City. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including Block Island and Martha's Vineyard. * Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Saturday Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 73.5 West. Henri is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion is expected through Saturday, with a turn toward the north-northwest expected late Saturday or Saturday night. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern New England late Saturday night or on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late Saturday night or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late Saturday night or on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by late Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late Saturday night and Sunday. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 0z ICON doing a loop-de-loop around NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 GFS ticked east again, but still it gets far enough inland to drop 1-2" of rain across parts of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 The HRRR is something else, stalls it right over EPA. 8-12" amounts showing up in Montgomery and Bucks Counties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 25 minutes ago, Newman said: The HRRR is something else, stalls it right over EPA. 8-12" amounts showing up in Montgomery and Bucks Counties. Yikes - luckily that does better in the very short range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 OMG both the 18z and 0z GFS were showing what appears to be some TC running right into LA right at the end of the runs. Yes I know but.... 0z GFS seems steady but I noticed a trend of a slight swinging out to the east and then recurving back around to the west before doing a landfall. And am seeing that loop-de-loop/stall around SE NY/NE PA before heading back east once on land. Am adding the TC into LA too for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 NHC 5 am Advisory (has weakened a bit, picked up speed and now moving to the NNE) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 210853 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...HENRI EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY... ...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.1N 73.2W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch east of Westport, Massachusetts has been discontinued, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Westport Massachusetts * Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including Block Island and Martha's Vineyard. * Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 73.2 West. Henri is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion is expected today, with a turn toward the north-northwest expected late today or tonight. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern New England on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane today and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical conditions possible by late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 That looks like it’s heading on off to the northwest guess that’s the reason for the flood watch today and tonight into tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 NHC intermediate Advisory (storm still headed to the NNE @12 mph but has strengthend to 993 mb and does look a bit more stacked on vis) - Quote 000 WTNT33 KNHC 211148 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING HENRI... ...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HURRICANE CONDITIONS, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 72.7W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM S OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point New York * North shore of Long Island from Montauk Point to Flushing New York * Flushing New York to Chatham Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic New York * North of Chatham Massachusetts to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Cape Cod Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * South shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk Point * North shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk Point * New Haven Connecticut to west of Watch Hill Rhode Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Westport Massachusetts * Block Island A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Jefferson Harbor to west of New Haven Connecticut * South shore of Long Island from west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet * Watch Hill Rhode Island to Woods Hole Massachusetts including Block Island and Martha's Vineyard. * Coastal New York and New Jersey west of East Rockaway Inlet to Manasquan Inlet, including New York City A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern U.S. should monitor the progress of Henri. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 72.7 West. Henri is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to north-northeastward motion is expected today, with a turn toward the north-northwest expected by tonight. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to make landfall in Long Island or southern New England on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Henri is expected to become a hurricane later today and be at or near hurricane strength when it makes landfall in Long Island or southern New England. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA including Narragansett Bay, Buzzards Bay, Vineyard Sound, and Nantucket Sound...3-5 ft North shore of Long Island from Flushing to Montauk Point, NY including Long Island Sound...3-5 ft South shore of Long Island from Mastic Beach to Montauk Point, NY...3-5 ft Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA including Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft South shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Mastic Beach, NY...2-4 ft Cape May, NJ to East Rockaway Inlet, NY...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area late tonight or on Sunday, with tropical conditions expected by late tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area late tonight and Sunday. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, and northern New Jersey Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 10 inches. Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday over southern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and Sunday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Almost all the model runs so far (0z & 6z) have shifted back to the east. The ensembles seem a tick east vs the operational but the range is pretty narrow on where the track is going to go, unless it does a "S word" special (left hook) at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 Almost 24 hours away and we have models who now tuck it into NYC to ones that barely clip Cape Cod. I still think some 1-2" rainfall gets into SE PA. The 6z Euro still shows that among many of the other short term guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 Both the Ukie and Euro were showing Henri inland due north into east central NY merging with some ULL and then moving due east across the rest of NE. The one down in the Carolinas is already doing a playdate with Henri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 The models that were further west yesterday had Henri much stronger than it is currently. It's clear that it's lack of rapid strengthening which was forecasted to occur overnight never happened and with a weaker system the storm shifted east. It honestly doesn't even look that great this morning. Should still see some showers/period of rain but the flood threat seems pretty minimal now in these parts despite the watch. Edit: 06z icon and nam but show flooding rains for se pa but I wont be surprised if that area ticks north with time due to the further east track. I think it ends up coming it at RI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 What we need to watch is this band of PRE rainfall that is targeting SE PA across some of the short term guidance. Some of the models are just picking up on it now, we'll have to see how it continues to trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 49 minutes ago, The Iceman said: The models that were further west yesterday had Henri much stronger than it is currently. It's clear that it's lack of rapid strengthening which was forecasted to occur overnight never happened and with a weaker system the storm shifted east. It honestly doesn't even look that great this morning. Should still see some showers/period of rain but the flood threat seems pretty minimal now in these parts despite the watch. Last night it had weakened to about 996/997 but as of the last report, it was down to 993 so it did strengthen a bit and at least on visible, it seems to be stacking a bit better with the naked swirl tucked under the mid levels a bit better and the shear that was keeping it from moving north has started to shift away, allowing it to pick up some speed. But it looks like some dry air got ingested into the lower level circulation so it's trying to form an eye somehow with that going on. There's a recon in the storm right now that is still finding the 993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 21, 2021 Share Posted August 21, 2021 My goodness 12k NAM PARKS that PRE band right over Philly. Reminds me very much of Hurricane Joaquin, which had that inverted trough/PRE rainfall all across South Carolina without ever landfalling. This will just be a more microscale similarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 21, 2021 Author Share Posted August 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, Newman said: My goodness 12k NAM PARKS that PRE band right over Philly. Reminds me very much of Hurricane Joaquin, which had that inverted trough/PRE rainfall all across South Carolina without ever landfalling. This will just be a more microscale similarity WPC agrees with this and has this area highlighted for flash flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now